E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

Let's do a repeat in 2 weeks 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like guidance all but lost the threat for next weekend. But the GFS has a Feb 10 overunning snowstorm 

Back to our regular scheduled La Niña program cold and dry! Then we get ready for the next storm which will be snow then change to sleet for the important hours of the storm!  Welcome to the 2025-26 winter!  I’ll take this in a heartbeat over the past 4-5 years. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Back to our regular scheduled La Niña program cold and dry! Then we get ready for the next storm which will be snow then change to sleet for the important hours of the storm!  Welcome to the 2025-26 winter!  I’ll take this in a heartbeat over the past 4-5 years. 

Agreed and hey, at least it isnt "wasted cold"....we cashed in and this should be around for a while.

[Chief83]

Worcester, PA  12 degrees . Almost all sleet. Some flakes mixed in. Rough estimate 10 inches. 

[JTA66]

As someone mentioned in the MA forum, when’s the last time we cashed in at the beginning of a good pattern?

Usually our bigly storms come as the pattern is breaking down.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

As someone mentioned in the MA forum, when’s the last time we cashed in at the beginning of a good pattern?

Usually our bigly storms come as the pattern is breaking down.

Maybe we can book-end storms. Then call it a winter. I would be ok with this and an early spring. Winter has been ok in my book. Zero complaints thus far.

[RedSky]

24 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

As someone mentioned in the MA forum, when’s the last time we cashed in at the beginning of a good pattern?

Usually our bigly storms come as the pattern is breaking down.

Essentially it happens in the great winters 1996, 2003, 2010,2011,2014, 2015 etc

 

[JTA66]

28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Maybe we can book-end storms. Then call it a winter. I would be ok with this and an early spring. Winter has been ok in my book. Zero complaints thus far.

If we get blitzed between now and say Valentine’s Day, I’ll gladly call it a winter.

[Physicsteve]

Sleet started around noon towards the end of the snowblow with a few fun raindrops mixed in and it’s since been steady sleet with some flurries occasionally trying to mix in. Measured 7.5” but was a bit after the mixing started, so going with 8” snow. Hard to measure sleet but maybe 1/4”-1/3”? 

[Tatamy]

Heavy sleet in Bethlehem Twp.  9/8.  Snow/sleet total so far 8.5”

[MJO812]

Next week on euro

[The Iceman]

18z euro brought the @Ralph Wiggumstorm back from the dead for next weekend. Let’s do it again!

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

18z euro brought the @Ralph Wiggumstorm back from the dead for next weekend. Let’s do it again!

Would be awesome. But in all honesty I think we r toast for the next 10 days minimum as the cold will be overwhelming the pattern. Maybe we can cash in on a clipper refresher. But I think when the cold starts to relax after the 4th, thats when we will score again and extending into the middle of the month. The book-end type thing with the cold pattern sandwiched in-between. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next week on euro

Plenty of time for things to change as we have already seen this season, but biggest thing going against it is the ridge axis out west  not being stout enough to allow for amplification in time which yields a system bombing just offshore downstream. Has an eyebrow raised tho.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Caution needed wrt glancing ahead at LR unicorn patterns, but this is sort of what im referring to. All 3 ens going into mid feb are loading up with a split out west, +pna, -Ao, -nao with the pattern setting up to flip/relax. When that  nao flips to positive is a period of interest. 

In short, if next 10+ days are dry and cold, I have a good feeling we arent quite finished yet.

 

 

[Duca892]

So… we putting any real stock into this one next weekend?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

So… we putting any real stock into this one next weekend?

Gfs just brought it back

[Newman]

Geez, like a light switch all of the models are showing this one now. No sleep for the weary!

[zenmsav6810]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs just brought it back

something to keep an eye on. we need the high pressure to weaken some otherwise... ots

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Newman said:

Geez, like a light switch all of the models are showing this one now. No sleep for the weary!

High amplified pattern 

[Newman]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

High amplified pattern 

Just from experience, it feels like an NYC and New England type of storm is brewing but can't rule out we get something crawl up the coast like the 18z Euro

[zenmsav6810]

23 minutes ago, Newman said:

Just from experience, it feels like an NYC and New England type of storm is brewing but can't rule out we get something crawl up the coast like the 18z Euro

Didn't we get a late glancing blow from a Miller A after the first two blockbusters in the 2010-11 snow season? 

[Heisy]

Wait till you guys see the 00z euro


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[LVblizzard]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Wait till you guys see the 00z euro


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Uhhhhh…what the hell? I did not expect a day 6 HECS on any model tonight.

[Heisy]

Uhhhhh…what the hell? I did not expect a day 6 HECS on any model tonight.

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[Heisy]

Uhhhhh…what the hell? I did not expect a day 6 HECS on any model tonight.

18z euro really trended that direction so I had a feeling euro might go off the charts tonight. 5-6 days out but fun to look at


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[LVblizzard]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

18z euro really trended that direction so I had a feeling euro might go off the charts tonight. 5-6 days out but fun to look at


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All the other globals have it too but none of them tuck it in like the Euro. Gonna be more sleepless nights ahead looking at these models.

[CoolHandMike]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

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THE F***???