E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Newman said:

6z GFS Op and GEFS came north again, AIGFS is a southern outlier for now. With a potential phase that models seem to be heading towards, I think a southern slider solution becomes much less likely

Was going to say this. Seems like we are moving away from suppression now as this morphed into a full phase system (possibly) and in 24 hrs we might be hoping for the N trend to stop. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

NAM has the high-pressure 1057 mb as it peaks. Just insane!

[Newman]

29 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Can you check the Skew T and see what the temps are for the Dendritic Growth Zone. From what I understand too cold can impact accumulation 

DGZ is -12C to -17C. For many across SE PA, the entire atmospheric column is between this up to like 600 or 500mb. Even down to the surface in many places. If you throw some strong omega into the mix, poor snow growth would be the least of my worries. You're right though, if things were colder than -17C then we'd be looking at less stellar dendrites

[Heisy]

Was going to say this. Seems like we are moving away from suppression now as this morphed into a full phase system (possibly) and in 24 hrs we might be hoping for the N trend to stop. 

Yes the phase adds a new layer of caution and risk. VA is in a good spot because they’ll cash in on the WAA goods one way or the other it seems

I’m likely just staying here. If Philly gets completely screwed then this was likely either well over phased or compressed and it wasn’t historic for anyone. I can see a word where the NW burbs end up being the place to go if we see a pd2 type progression


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[ChescoWx]

This morning's low here in East Nantmeal was 7.8 degrees our coldest reading since the 4.0-degree temperature last January 23rd. The coldest reading across the area was the 0.8 above zero at Warwick Township. We stay cold through tomorrow before a one day warming trend on Thursday gets our temperatures back to around 40 degrees. Lows by tomorrow morning will likely fall to near or below zero in the colder valley locations. We get colder again on Thursday night and stay in the freezer through the weekend. Snow looks to arrive with a potentially significant winter storm by late Saturday or early Sunday.

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

This morning's low here in East Nantmeal was 7.8 degrees our coldest reading since the 4.0-degree temperature last January 23rd. The coldest reading across the area was the 0.8 above zero at Warwick Township. We stay cold through tomorrow before a one day warming trend on Thursday gets our temperatures back to around 40 degrees. Lows by tomorrow morning will likely fall to near or below zero in the colder valley locations. We get colder again on Thursday night and stay in the freezer through the weekend. Snow looks to arrive with a potentially significant winter storm by late Saturday or early Sunday.

Low here in Media 9.7f with our 5" of snow on the ground. 

I think we are looking at 2f to about 5f tonight see how things work out.

I mean 2f and a high to 46f on Thursday, you know something is coming soon in regards to a big storm with these temperature gradients that are going to start showing up as we increase our warming in the southern latitudes and bring the warm and moisture north it is all about timing, but the ingredients are there for 1 or 2 blockbuster snowstorms between January 23rd and February 10th or so. 

Great information as usual Paul. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Snow and temps.in mid teens would be crazy sick

[Kevin Reilly]

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Snow and temps.in mid teens would be crazy sick

This was the breakdown for President's Day 2003 PHL was 8f snow increasing 1-2" an hour in intensity and piling up fast, Trenton 6f had filtered sun through high clouds no snow during that morning around 7:00 am, and just southwest of PHL I think they were working over a foot.  I am not sure I think we wound up with like 19-22" if I am correct, it's been a while.

The February 5th, 2010, storm was crazy cold air crashing too we wound up with 23" here and even more impressive which I have not seen before was 1-2" an hour for like 3 hours with winds gusting 40-50 mph out of the west.

I know The February 5th, 2010, storm was a Baja Calli low >>> we get the big dogs when the Baja Calli lows come to play further east. 

 

[Zeus]

I like where the goal posts are at for this one. Can only go so far north it seems, temps struggle to break 20º F, chance that thing slows down right where you'd want it to for a long duration event.

Of course, not a lock yet. We still have to brave many potential issues. The agony of being 4-5 days out. Potential for weird suck zones in the precip shield. Mild indigestion, aches and pains, skin rash, death.

But, other than that, I like the look.

[JTA66]

6 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This was the breakdown for President's Day 2003 PHL was 8f snow increasing 1-2" an hour in intensity and piling up fast, Trenton had filtered sun through high clouds no snow, and just southwest of PHL I think they were working over a foot.  I am not sure I think we wound up with like 19-22" if I am correct, it's been a while.

The February 5th, 2010, storm was crazy cold air crashing too we wound up with 23" here and even more impressive which I have not seen before was 1-2" an hour for like 3 hours with winds gusting 40-50 mph out of the west.

I know The February 5th, 2010, storm was a Baja Calli low >>> we get the big dogs when the Baja Calli lows come to play further east. 

 

I had a total Ji meltdown with that storm. For a while there, I thought we might surpass Blizzard of '96 totals. Then at some point late Sunday night/early Monday morning, I heard pingers mixing in. Even with 20+ inches on the ground, I was thinking the storm under performed...lol!

Seems things have slowed down for this next storm. Wasn't this looking like a Saturday event a few days ago? Gotta think the slower evolution is a good thing. Let's get the CRAS onboard!

Bottomed out at 9F this morning, currently 12F.

[Duca892]

i feel like an addict needing my next hit of a model run 

[coastal front]

Great trends overnight but now the threat of mixing def exists for me. 2016 at this lead time looked like 10”-20” of cold  powder and I ended up getting 11” with rain and a dry slot. 

[Violentweatherfan]

12 minutes ago, coastal front said:

Great trends overnight but now the threat of mixing def exists for me. 2016 at this lead time looked like 10”-20” of cold  powder and I ended up getting 11” with rain and a dry slot. 

I-95 dry slotted in 2016 as well. Lost quite a bit of accumulation 

[Violentweatherfan]

I think it’s time for a thread, I’ll start it once I think of a nice title

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm still very skeptical of this. 2003, 2010, and 2016 were all part of el nino events. Pretty much all the big events came either during an el nino and/or a +PDO. Even 1996, which was a la nina, had a +PDO. We currently have a -PDO and a slight -ENSO. If we get a huge event, it would be unprecedented given the PDO/ENSO state.

[Violentweatherfan]

How is this for a title, SWFE[southwest flow event] or WHIFF event January 24/24 2026

[No Snow Flo]

No fan of snow so I'm going to start a thread and hopefully we get more of a 2" to 4" event. Suppression or mixing, either is good.  

[Zeus]

Just now, Violentweatherfan said:

How is this for a title, SWFE or WHIFF event January 24/24 2026

It's terrible.

Let's get sensational. "Any given Sunday: How much for Philly this next storm?" and we send in the dancing girls

[JTA66]

2 minutes ago, No Snow Flo said:

No fan of snow so I'm going to start a thread and hopefully we get more of a 2" to 4" event. Suppression or mixing, either is good.  

But wouldn't that be a double negative? Someone who isn't a fan of snow starting a snow thread to prevent snow would possibly bring on the big dog.

[MacChump]

10 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

But wouldn't that be a double negative? Someone who isn't a fan of snow starting a snow thread to prevent snow would possibly bring on the big dog.

shhhhh

[zenmsav6810]

I'm thinking that the high pressure is a bit overdone. I personally think this is more of a blend between PDII and Dec 2000. Plenty still can go wrong. A few days ago I thought the GFS was showing more of a Miller C setup but now it shows more of a Miller B look. PDII had a pretty organized precip shield but we still ended up with a bit of a dry slot about 2/3rds of the way through the storm even as NW as berks county. I think the QPF was a bit higher with PDII overall too. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Started a thread. What could possibly go wrong?

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I think it’s time for a thread, I’ll start it once I think of a nice title

Shit, I am just seeing this. I can delete the one I made. But why didnt you just make one instead of advertising that you might make one?

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Low here in Media 9.7f with our 5" of snow on the ground. 

I think we are looking at 2f to about 5f tonight see how things work out.

I mean 2f and a high to 46f on Thursday, you know something is coming soon in regards to a big storm with these temperature gradients that are going to start showing up as we increase our warming in the southern latitudes and bring the warm and moisture north it is all about timing, but the ingredients are there for 1 or 2 blockbuster snowstorms between January 23rd and February 10th or so. 

Great information as usual Paul. 

 

Thanks Kevin!!

[ChescoWx]

30 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

I'm thinking that the high pressure is a bit overdone. I personally think this is more of a blend between PDII and Dec 2000. Plenty still can go wrong. A few days ago I thought the GFS was showing more of a Miller C setup but now it shows more of a Miller B look. PDII had a pretty organized precip shield but we still ended up with a bit of a dry slot about 2/3rds of the way through the storm even as NW as berks county. I think the QPF was a bit higher with PDII overall too. 

IMHO this is not really a Miller B type set up....more the bowling ball rolling along the baroclinic zone.....