Discussion OBS for minor to possibly moderate impact winter storm interior 4A Tue - midnight Tue 12/2/25, may bring first measurable snow-sleet to coastal areas including NYC

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

18Z Nam is saying way north of Yonkers till it snows

wow that's crazy nevermind my prediction will be way off! oh well onto the next one

[snywx]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z Nam is saying way north of Yonkers till it snows - closer to Albany

At hr78 it has a 988 parked over HFD. lol gotta love the NAM 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z Nam is saying way north of Yonkers till it snows - closer to Albany

So much for thinking a mere  24 hours ago I was pretty safe in Orange County from any change over. 
 

The bright side I will be in Saratoga Springs on Wednesday and should at least see a nice blanket of snow on the ground there. But it's weather three days out, so who knows. 

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

So much for thinking a mere  24 hours ago I was pretty safe in Orange County from any change over. 
 

The bright side I will be in Saratoga Springs on Wednesday and should at least see a nice blanket of snow on the ground there. But it's weather three days out, so who knows. 

now watch the next Euro's suite only bring the precip as far north as southern NY state - something is seriously wrong with some of these models..........is it GIGO (Garbage In/Garbage Out)??

[ForestHillWx]

The NAM always amps, especially the 18z. Not saying it’s going to snow in the city proper or LI, but North Jersey, especially Sussex, is in the game in my opinion. 

The 500 map Forky posted days ago seemed to argue this could shred and exit stage right, not cut. But time will tell. 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The NAM always amps, especially the 18z. Not saying it’s going to snow in the city proper or LI, but North Jersey, especially Sussex, is in the game in my opinion. 

The 500 map Forky posted days ago seemed to argue this could shred and exit stage right, not cut. But time will tell. 

Gfs is further south

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is further south

Models are confused right now to say the least - expect further changes in future runs ...........

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Models are confused right now to say the least - expect further changes in future runs ...........

I think the coast stays all rain but maybe some flakes.

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think the coast stays all rain but maybe some flakes.

what if the Canadian shifts back to its OZ accumulating snow solution ? And Euro shifts south ? there has been a wide range of differing model solutions in the last 24 hours from the amped GFS and Nam brings liquid all the way up to Albany and the Canadians 2 - 4 inches North Jersey

 

[eduggs]

Chicago has had 13 straight hours of snow and moderate snow for the last 5, with more to come and temperatures in the 20s. Jealous.

For reference, Chicago averages about as much snow annually as the interior Lower Hudson valley.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Chicago has had 13 straight hours of snow and moderate snow for the last 5, with more to come and temperatures in the 20s. Jealous.

For reference, Chicago averages about as much snow annually as the interior Lower Hudson valley.

that was an easier forecast because the arctic air was already established in place...........

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Chicago has had 13 straight hours of snow and moderate snow for the last 5, with more to come and temperatures in the 20s. Jealous.

For reference, Chicago averages about as much snow annually as the interior Lower Hudson valley.

Chicago only averages 7 inches more per season than New York City using the 1991 through 2020 last calculated norms.  Obviously it's a lot colder than New York City in the winter. By an average of about 10° in January.

[the_other_guy]

10 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Chicago has had 13 straight hours of snow and moderate snow for the last 5, with more to come and temperatures in the 20s. Jealous.

For reference, Chicago averages about as much snow annually as the interior Lower Hudson valley.

Chicago has had a shitty run for a while. Good for them

[the_other_guy]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Chicago only averages 7 inches more per season than New York City using the 1991 through 2020 last calculated norms.  Obviously it's a lot colder than New York City in the winter. By an average of about 10° in January.

They dont get coastal lows. Now we dont either.

 

Chicago wins

[sussexcountyobs]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

They dont get coastal lows. Now we dont either.

 

Chicago wins

When did coastal lows stop happening here? 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

They dont get coastal lows. Now we dont either.

 

Chicago wins

I've lived in the Midwest and most of my life in the Hudson Valley 50 miles NNW of New York City at 600 feet elevation. I'll take the winters where I live over Chicago 8 times out of ten. i'll take a Chicago winter over New York City winter 8 times out of 10 too. 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

They dont get coastal lows. Now we dont either.

 

Chicago wins

What

[North and West]

They dont get coastal lows. Now we dont either.
 
Chicago wins

.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z Nam is saying way north of Yonkers till it snows - closer to Albany

NAM is usually over amped at this range but clear at this point this will be a N/W storm and well NW at that 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I think the coast stays all rain but maybe some flakes.

Veterans Day likely had more flakes than any of us at/near the coast get on Tue. Probably just wall to wall rain. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Veterans Day likely had more flakes than any of us at/near the coast get on Tue. Probably just wall to wall rain. 

Maybe. Depends how fast the precip comes in . Best chance is at the beginning especially if the euro is right. 

[Roger Smith]

There has never been a larger snowfall on Dec 2nd than 3.9" which happened in 1929 (NYC data). Another similar event was 3.8" 2nd-3rd 1903. 

The daily records for 1st to 3rd are 1.5" (1880), 3.9" (1929) and 3.0" (1903). A somewhat larger 8" snowfall happened on 4th of 1957 but early December does not have much going for it in the heavy snow department, Nov 30 1882 did better than all of those efforts (8" plus another inch on Dec 1). 

Maybe before records began in 1869 there was something bigger. 

I found several instances of severe cold in this part of the early winter that did not bring much snowfall, for example 1875 and 1926. 

(this is not meant to offer any sort of prediction, I am just looking at the guidance for this event for the first time now)