First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[moneypitmike]

ICON is solid for many.

I think it looks a lot like Ray's map IIRC.

 

[dendrite]

Yeah I don’t think anyone denies the H5 improvements over time. And I think we forget how off and how coarse the solutions were at d5+ over a decade ago. I almost feel like there’s too much resolution in the long range combined with the increasing error and you start ending up with more chaos with the deterministic solutions and we start overanalyzing details like QPF and temps too far out. 

[radarman]

RGEM a bit stronger.  Elevated interior snows NOP.

[dryslot]

Reggie looks good.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Let’s get Boston to that 6” futility record. 

[ORH_wxman]

We had this a few times last year…models becoming more divergent inside of 4 days. Seeing the euro go so flat at 06z to almost whiffing and then seeing monster amped solutions at the same time from other guidance….

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We had this a few times last year…models becoming more divergent inside of 4 days. Seeing the euro go so flat at 06z to almost whiffing and then seeing monster amped solutions at the same time from other guidance….

I know it’s weird how that’s been happening.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Let’s get Boston to that 6” futility record. 

There’s no chance they’re getting close to 6 inches in this one.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s no chance they’re getting close to 6 inches in this one.

That's what she said.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s no chance they’re getting close to 6 inches in this one.

Right. They are pretty close to the all time record between 6” snowfalls.

 

i don’t think people truly understand how bad it’s been around here

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s no chance they’re getting close to 6 inches in this one.

Watch the 00z euro verify now. 

[dendrite]

I would laugh if the gfs ends up the most SE out of all 12z models

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Watch the 00z euro verify now. 

Still think that would be hard for them. It’s so borderline. It would have to absolute nuke for hours. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I would laugh if the gfs ends up the most SE out of all 12z models

It will be NW of 6z. Will rains to Maines 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Right. They are pretty close to the all time record between 6” snowfalls.

 

i don’t think people truly understand how bad it’s been around here

Their last one was the same here. It came close last year here but was 5.9”. 
 

However 3 miles west of Logan beat the 6” mark on 12/20/24. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Their last one was the same here. It came close last year here but was 5.9”. 
 

However 3 miles west of Logan beat the 6” mark on 12/20/24. 

Feb 22 right?

 

12/20 last year was comical. Like 6” in canton coming home from Work in gridlock, and 100% rain here

[bristolri_wx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I would laugh if the gfs ends up the most SE out of all 12z models

It wouldn't shock me, the GEFS have been SE of the op for many runs...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

It wouldn't shock me, the GEFS have been SE of the op for many runs...

Yeah, I think the GFS starts the SE trends today. 

[dryslot]

I think we will see the GFS a bit flatter coming up.

[weatherwiz]

Already huge differences by hr 60-66 at H5 compared to the 12z run yesterday. Not much difference versus 0z or 6z but its crazy to see such drastic differences in 24 hour

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think we will see the GFS a bit flatter coming up.

thru 60 does look a bit flatter 

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still think that would be hard for them. It’s so borderline. It would have to absolute nuke for hours. 

That’s what it did in BOS. It had like -1C to -2C at 925 there. I agree this is a massively heavy lift for BOS but that’s how it would have to go. 00z euro rates and temp profile

[dendrite]

GFS has a little fronto finger up here on the front end. 

[ORH_wxman]

This run will be a bit less zonked than 06z it looks like. 

[dryslot]

Little more amped then 06z though strength wise.

[dendrite]

Still pretty warm llvls for a lot of SNE. Def a tick cooler though. 

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Still pretty warm llvls for a lot of SNE. 

Good hit up our way still.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s what it did in BOS. It had like -1C to -2C at 925 there. I agree this is a massively heavy lift for BOS but that’s how it would have to go. 00z euro rates and temp profile

Three years I’ve been hoping for that and all I have are watching dendrites melting 400 feet above me.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Told ya .

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

Still pretty warm llvls for a lot of SNE. 

yeah 700mb is quite warm. snow growth would be pathetic except perhaps towards SNH or so and just north