First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Kitz Craver]

Models still undecided. However, Looks like the EURO is getting flatter while the GFS seems to have somewhat put the brakes on the NW tug. GFS starting to cave?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So much better than dews lawns hhh talk

May as well talk about dews and lawn with that.

[CoastalWx]

Means nothing until we get into NAM range.  

[dendrite]

6z was a hoot

Maybe we can whiff the region by Tuesday

[CoastalWx]

Nam was about to torch to CON at the end. 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Models still undecided. However, Looks like the EURO is getting flatter while the GFS seems to have somewhat put the brakes on the NW tug. GFS starting to cave?

..and why there should be considerable caution regarding putting out potential snowfall accumulation predictions....too early in the "game"...

[Kitz Craver]

I really thought the morning EURO would have trended more amped and head into the GFS camp after it nuked at 0z. But it went the exact opposite way, I dunno. Nothing to glean 

[moneypitmike]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

6z was a hoot

Maybe we can whiff the region by Tuesday

 

That would be so fitting with a thread starting 5 days before the anticipated event.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

I really thought the morning EURO would have trended more amped and head into the GFS camp after it nuked at 0z. But it went the exact opposite way, I dunno. Nothing to glean 

Gfs I think will slide SE and I assume euro probably slides NW of 6z. As much as I have AI shit, it’s been consistent and euro op is close to it.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

That would be so fitting with a thread starting 5 days before the anticipated event.

 

Bob only creating juju for himself.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I really thought the morning EURO would have trended more amped and head into the GFS camp after it nuked at 0z. But it went the exact opposite way, I dunno. Nothing to glean 

There was a day when the Euro would be locked/or locking in now….very sad it can’t hold a solution anymore. 

[dendrite]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gfs I think will slide SE and I assume euro probably slides NW of 6z. As much as I have AI shit, it’s been consistent and euro op is close to it.

Euro AI ens have been consistently good for up here. Totally opposite of the AI “op”.

[mahk_webstah]

When the euro is jumping around this much, it’s kind of ridiculous because it didn’t used to do that.
it’s probably a perceptual bias, but it does seem that the models perform worse and worse. I think maybe it’s climate change to extent but maybe it’s just the large numbers of models coming out every couple of hours. In the old days of the 70s and 80s and even the 90s some extent they weren’t that many models so your perceptions wouldn’t change every 2 to 4 hours. Meteorologist would just look at the overall set up and whatever data they had and make their best guess forecast and refine it as it got closer. It seems to me will end up pretty much near the global model average from yesterday and today and then tomorrow the shorter range models can start to take over a bit

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Euro AI ens have been consistently good for up here. Totally opposite of the AI “op”.

Haven’t looked but I will.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro AI ens have been consistently good for up here. Totally opposite of the AI “op”.

Dare I ask how they look for coastal Maine?  Do they bring rain up there? 

Asking for a friend.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam was about to torch to CON at the end. 

Is it ever not at 84h?

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs I think will slide SE and I assume euro probably slides NW of 6z. As much as I have AI shit, it’s been consistent and euro op is close to it.

The AI was a clean whiff for several runs. Like actually no precip or a few hundredths.  

[Damage In Tolland]

The concerns and worries mount . Blows 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

When the euro is jumping around this much, it’s kind of ridiculous because it didn’t used to do that.
it’s probably a perceptual bias, but it does seem that the models perform worse and worse. I think maybe it’s climate change to extent but maybe it’s just the large numbers of models coming out every couple of hours. In the old days of the 70s and 80s and even the 90s some extent they weren’t that many models so your perceptions wouldn’t change every 2 to 4 hours. Meteorologist would just look at the overall set up and whatever data they had and make their best guess forecast and refine it as it got closer. It seems to me will end up pretty much near the global model average from yesterday and today and then tomorrow the shorter range models can start to take over a bit

Go back to when the Euro was a stud…the thing would hone in, and hold a solution and pretty much take it to the goal line most of the time. They changed something after that(supposedly improving it), and that was the end..it’s never been the same.  And every upgrade since is worse and worse. They F’ed it up plain and simple.  They tried to fix it, when it wasn’t broken. And that’s that. 

[H2Otown_WX]

The models run too many times per day. Just run them at 00 and 12z and then nobody has to live and die by these stupid off hour runs.

[qg_omega]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs I think will slide SE and I assume euro probably slides NW of 6z. As much as I have AI shit, it’s been consistent and euro op is close to it.

Crazy how good Ai already is, imagine in a few years…

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The concerns and worries mount . Blows 

I don’t think you need to be concerned about anything yet.  We basically have everything from over the Cape to a near whiff on the table, although I don’t think either of those solutions will verify.

Early season, keep expectations low, and hope for a few inches of paste. I don’t think this is a double digit storm for anybody.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The AI was a clean whiff for several runs. Like actually no precip or a few hundredths.  

Yeah true, I guess I mean as far as track goes. It did probably move NW almost 100 miles from a few days ago. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Crazy how good Ai already is, imagine in a few years…

It really isn’t that good though.  

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Is it ever not at 84h?

Today’s runs probably track it over my head. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Crazy how good Ai already is, imagine in a few years…

The op is like any other op. The ensemble has been decent. 

[Lava Rock]

Go back to when the Euro was a stud…the thing would hone in, and hold a solution and pretty much take it to the goal line most of the time. They changed something after that(supposedly improving it), and that was the end..it’s never been the same.  And every upgrade since is worse and worse. They F’ed it up plain and simple.  They tried to fix it, when it wasn’t broken. And that’s that. 

Don't they understand this and if so, why not go back to old model?

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

The models run too many times per day. Just run them at 00 and 12z and then nobody has to live and die by these stupid off hour runs.

It’s amazing how the off hour runs most times deviate wildly from the 0z and 12z runs. I mean it’s laughable. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Bob only creating juju for himself.

You take that back…

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Don't they understand this and if so, why not go back to old model?

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

I’ve asked this so many times.  It’s almost like they can’t go back once they do something to it…at least that’s the way it seems?  But I agree with you…put it back to what it used to be, and let’s see how it does again…cuz it was exceptionally good at that time.