Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

Figured I'd start the thread. While the Winter Solstice is still 4 weeks away, met winter starts in a week. Its been quiet since many of us saw out first snow and taste of winter November 9-10, but now wintry potential is showing up in multiple extended forecasts. So it's time!

[A-L-E-K]

This is your moment friend

[Frog Town]

 Weather history buffs, help me out here. It was early December 2000, and we had a setup similar to what we’re seeing now—a hybrid-type low dropping out of Alberta. It was originally forecast to behave a lot like this weekend’s storm, but instead it tracked farther south and nailed Ohio and southern Michigan. I had just graduated college and remember being caught off guard by the shift. Ironically, that December ended up being one for the books, turning into one of the coldest and snowiest on record for these parts.

 

Thanks for starting the thread, Michsnowfreak.

[Chinook]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

 Weather history buffs, help me out here. It was early December 2000, and we had a setup similar to what we’re seeing now—a hybrid-type low dropping out of Alberta. It was originally forecast to behave a lot like this weekend’s storm, but instead it tracked farther south and nailed Ohio and southern Michigan. I had just graduated college and remember being caught off guard by the shift. Ironically, that December ended up being one for the books, turning into one of the coldest and snowiest on record for these parts.

 

Thanks for starting the thread, Michsnowfreak.

It is this. It started down by Tulsa on the previous day

[A-L-E-K]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

47 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

I've noticed as of today the models have it amplifying more in the central CONUS rather than the western. This puts a kibosh on potential but it still brings the snow this weekend, at least for me and points north. 

[A-L-E-K]

would be nice to get the high ratio duster mid week to trend favorably 

[Chicago916]

Doesn't mean much, but seems like next week's storm has continued to trend north. Looks like better spacing with this weekends storm. Doesn't look particularly strong tho but something to watch.

[ChiTownSnow]

On 11/26/2025 at 7:06 AM, A-L-E-K said:

would be nice to get the high ratio duster mid week to trend favorably 

With those ratios it wouldn't take much. Quick couple of inches of fluf to whiten things up

[Jackstraw]

I know this Chitowncentric board is focused on tomorrow but the signal of a possible App runner coming up from the S behind this one and partially phasing with some northern stream energy in the Tues to Wed timeframe is gaining a little support with the models. Would be a nice to substantial stat padder for most of the sub and get folks to the S (ILL/IN) and E(OH) that will whiff tomorrow in on a pretty decent early season snowpack that could be around until at least through the weekend.  Might be thread worthy if models keep trending up (mainly the stingy fickle Euro). Staying positive as long as I can lol.

[A-L-E-K]

On 11/26/2025 at 7:06 AM, A-L-E-K said:

would be nice to get the high ratio duster mid week to trend favorably 

More early than mid week but trends are favorable here

[mimillman]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

More early than mid week but trends are favorable here

This looks like 1-2” max but should be a nice refresher and a very rare snow on snow for early December