Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[A-L-E-K]

1 minute ago, Radtechwxman said:

Ugh Euro is north. Pretty much saw that coming. Hoping it can nudge back south but feel like this gunna end up an I80 north special. Shocker

850 and slp north of chicago, weenie maps showing the always ephemeral front end thump aside, this is taking the shape of a wisconsin event imo

[Radtechwxman]

Just now, A-L-E-K said:

850 and slp north of chicago, weenie maps showing the always ephemeral front end thump aside, this is taking the shape of a wisconsin event imo

Definitely not a favorable track for us. Sucks to get a nice front thump to then have it eroded by nasty cold rain. 

[Chicago916]

Was gonna say I was thankful to be in Milwaukee this weekend, but even that could be to far south

[migratingwx]

This run also puts O'Hare down to -1°F Monday morning with a snow depth of 6 inches. 

[DocATL]

Hope I get 2 inches in Naperville.


.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Already got people chirping about the "foot of snow" incoming this weekend... 

 

Dont hate where I sit as of now, but not a fan of the SLP tracking overhead or NW. 

[sbnwx85]

Need the north trend to stop for sure. Half of what falls on the euro imby is lake effect and it’s overdoing that big time. 

[hawkeye_wx]

I'm sitting pretty good this morning, but this is still four days away, which is a long time in the model world.

[Chicago Storm]

As is always the case in good patterns, there two routes that are always of a concern…

Too suppressed or well phased. This one is currently trending towards the latter recently.

[migratingwx]

Interestingly, the 12z EPS mean is coming in a bit higher for Chicago than the 6z run.

[CANNOTDIVIDEBY0]

I come back to the forum every winter to track winter storms that go north with every run.

 

We've never been so fucking back

[migratingwx]

4 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

Interestingly, the 12z EPS mean is coming in a bit higher for Chicago than the 6z run.

[michaelmantis]

After last winters lack of snow in my part of Chicago (Far NW burbs), I'm not getting hopes up. Our last seasons best shot of snow went from 6-8 inches to a dusting within 9-12 hours between "jackpot model run" and "reality". Are patterns really changing that much or do we just have more "data points" (that don't need to be real data points they could be model hallucinations or just model gunk) that it *seems* like things are changing?

[cyclone77]

Would be pretty cool for MLI to blow past last year's whole season total (8.2") with this storm.  Would also be the 1st measurable snow of this new season as well lol.

[migratingwx]

7 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

 

[Cary67]

1 minute ago, michaelmantis said:

After last winters lack of snow in my part of Chicago (Far NW burbs), I'm not getting hopes up. Our last seasons best shot of snow went from 6-8 inches to a dusting within 9-12 hours between "jackpot model run" and "reality". Are patterns really changing that much or do we just have more "data points" (that don't need to be real data points they could be model hallucinations or just model gunk) that it *seems* like things are changing?

QPF erosion is real. This year has seen several rain events fizzle at the finish line.

[A-L-E-K]

7 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

QPF erosion is real. This year has seen several rain events fizzle at the finish line.

at least u got derecho'd

[Cary67]

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

at least u got derecho'd

Good times

[Radtechwxman]

Ride or die 12z GDPS