December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean sure if you’re talking about a few nose hairs colder. 

The fokes on long Island don't like the trend. I do!

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

its also alot less precip lol. Weenies in boston on twitter are really worried about the HP trending stronger as we get closer and shunting it further south

  Well I'm hoping  it keeps coming south!!!!

[mitchnick]

Eps

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Eps

Be interested to see ind members cause op not even close to brining snow to Maryland so there’s got to be some big hits in the mix. 

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Be interested to see ind members cause op not even close to brining snow to Maryland so there’s got to be some big hits in the mix. 

 

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Be interested to see ind members cause op not even close to brining snow to Maryland so there’s got to be some big hits in the mix. 

I did a total thru 150hrs so some may be from tonight 

[Kay]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

[TSSN+]

29 minutes ago, bncho said:

 

Or not 

[Eskimo Joe]

I'll take member 41 on the 12z ENS please and thank you.

[Ji]

the euro ensemble mean temp for 1pm Friday is 32 for Leesburg. GFS its 37

[NorthArlington101]

Deep range but AIFS is lit up at the very end of the run. Quite a signal for days 14-16… mock it all ya want. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z Euro ENS try to kill the western Canada trough around New Years and dump a respectable eastern US trough on us. Maybe this warmup will be muted?

[Ji]

i am seeing weenies post this map on social media. It looks like a combo of the 93 blizzard and blizzard of 96. Who gave JB the autopen?

 

[NorthArlington101]

Also on AIFS ens.... please remember we seem to have pretty much decided it can't tell the difference between snow/IP/FRZA/etc - but I see this as the total amount of wintry precip it's seeing for Friday. Just gotta mentally convert it to a QPF map

[Ji]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Also on AIFS ens.... please remember we seem to have pretty much decided it can't tell the difference between snow/IP/FRZA/etc - but I see this as the total amount of wintry precip it's seeing for Friday. Just gotta mentally convert it to a QPF map

buzzkill. Are you weather wills cousin?

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

buzzkill. Are you weather wills cousin?

You ignored the post above it where I honked for a miller A 14 days out

[nj2va]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro ENS try to kill the western Canada trough around New Years and dump a respectable eastern US trough on us. Maybe this warmup will be muted?

Shocked, I tell you, shocked.  Would fit the seasonable pattern.

[Ji]

weeklies are colder. They begin the below normal temp thing by the first weekend of January

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

weeklies are colder. They begin the below normal temp thing by the first weekend of January

So January cancel is uncancelled? Shocker.

[winter_warlock]

LWX mentions the  big south trend in their afternoon disco!!!

 

Meanwhile, another disturbance will emerge out of the West Coast

trough and rapidly track up over the central US ridge Thursday into

Thursday night, before diving east-southeastward toward the Mid-

Atlantic on Friday. Guidance has shifted significantly southward

with the track of this system with each of the last few model runs.

As a result, many solutions now show wintry precipitation across the

northern half of the forecast area (roughly I-66/US-50 northward).

Of the solutions that do have wintry precipitation, most favor

freezing rain and sleet, but some snow can`t be completely ruled out

depending on the ultimate track of the system. The upstream flow

pattern across the North Pacific (from which this system will

originate) is highly complex at the moment, with critical pieces

that will come together still to the west of the California coast,

in the Gulf of Alaska, and in the Bering Strait. Another closed

upper low to the west of Hawaii will likely also have a major impact

on how the West Coast trough evolves. As a result, there could still

be significant shifts with respect to the track of this system over

the next few model runs, and confidence in the forecast is much

lower than normal for five days out.

[mitchnick]

42 minutes ago, Ji said:

weeklies are colder. They begin the below normal temp thing by the first weekend of January

Bam, Bam, Bam!

[JenkinsJinkies]

58 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro ENS try to kill the western Canada trough around New Years and dump a respectable eastern US trough on us. Maybe this warmup will be muted?

The forecasted high for Friday has fallen off a cliff over the past few days.

[WEATHER53]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend.

 

As I mentioned in your excellent post yesterday, the models are catching up to what the analogs  say Must  happen 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

As I mentioned in your excellent post yesterday, the models are catching up to what the analysts say Must  happen 

I think you put it very eloquently in one of your past posts—it's called meteorology, not modelogy. Great call there.

[CAPE]

This is what we need at a minimum. A more established block /more confluence/ stronger HP to the west of the 50-50 low would be better.

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So January cancel is uncancelled? Shocker.

Until tomorrow 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS manages to squeak out a little Christmas Day snow TV for some folks in northern Maryland. Torchmas 

[NorthArlington101]

AIGFS is a little colder on the surface then previous runs. Not super ptype confident but think it might be snow -> ice for most north of 66 (for Friday) 

[bncho]

It looks like 18z GFS won't be what we want.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, bncho said:

It looks like 18z GFS won't be what we want.

It’s pretty sleety, at least. I’ll share the map once it generates.