December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not in the same ballpark as the gfs obviously, but the icon came pretty far S vs last run wrt slp located in the midwest/ov fwiw at 102

[baltosquid]

FWIW (little) the NAM and RGEM continue the trends of higher heights to our west and lower ones in the east at range. Same way the GFS has been trending. ICON captures the event and was only just a tick south though (in terms of wintry precip for us)

[Solution Man]

Warm up the bus

[Ralph Wiggum]

I know the pretty red L is up in Lake Ontario, but sure looks like the icon is depicting a slp popping near oc, MD. Alas, enough of this jv model. OK trend tho.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Warm up the bus

We're all going over the cliff together?

[bncho]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

We're all going over the cliff together?

we're climbing up the cliff together so we can fall in together. all over a 6z GFS run lol

[Bob Chill]

49 minutes ago, bncho said:

Curious as to what your other analogs are for this setup—maybe it could provide more insight into possible outcomes.

Mixed bag and nothing super interesting. Dec 28-31 2008 & Jan 13-18 2000 would be the other closest. Jan 3 22 was a flukey storm and not a common setup. Analogs favor warm overall but the strong block brings in the chance. OTOH, analogs show past history isn't that dire rolling forward into Jan. The only rat showing up is Dec 2012 and it's not a strong correlation. I remain confident there will be winter wx here in Jan.

[baltosquid]

59 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I get what you are saying but models have no impact on each other. The GFS is not "getting other ops to move towards it" - they don't talk and aren't interconnected. The only "trend" would be from id they are all in time figuring out the solution. 

Of course. I’m not speaking literally, though I understand it’s careless agency-assigning or anthropomorphizing towards the models to speak like that, and yeah I probably shouldn’t.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Of course. I’m not speaking literally, though I understand it’s careless agency-assigning or anthropomorphizing towards the models to speak like that, and yeah I probably shouldn’t.

Eh - we all do it! Blame superstitious weenie-minds! 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only rat showing up is Dec 2012

Oh I was trolled constantly that winter. It would snow, accumulate an inch or two, get on the tree branches and look a picturesque, then a warm front would come in, the snow changed to rain, the rain would then melt all the snow away. 
 

That happened every single time that season… I think I only had one snow day that school year and the rest were 2 hour delays. I remember one hit near the end of the day and the teachers worded it as “we’re getting out at 1:75” to make it sound like closing early for snow but the high schools get out at 2:15 so that was some very clever albeit trollish wordplay from them.

[mitchnick]

At 60hrs, 12z gfs height lines are ever so slightly north of 6z. We'll see if that makes a difference. 

[T. August]

I’m worried this one is gonna hurt. Seems like a few op runs will bring us in over the next couple days, but the end result will be a 8-12” hit between Trenton and NYC.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, T. August said:

I’m worried this one is gonna hurt. Seems like a few op runs will bring us in over the next couple days, but the end result will be a 8-12” hit between Trenton and NYC.

It moving north doesn’t hurt, it moving southeast hurts.

[bncho]

12z GFS looks markedly similar to 6z GFS @ hr84, but I don't know whether things will change a lot (for better or for worse) in terms of its solution

[bncho]

GFS actually a tick south so far in terms of heights

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

GFS actually a tick south so far in terms of heights

Just gunna post this

[Solution Man]

Double down coming

[bncho]

I think I've pressed the reload button on WxBELL about 75 times on the 12z GFS lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

I think I've pressed the reload button on WxBELL about 75 times on the 12z GFS lol

So if the site ever crashes we'll know who to blame 

[mitchnick]

Meh. Still close

[bncho]

It's actually not getting shunted as far south as 6z. HP in Canada is slightly more north than 6z.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Meh. Still close

Perhaps more realistic?

[Solution Man]

Just now, bncho said:

It's actually not getting shunted as far south as 6z. HP in Canada is slightly more north than 6z.

It’s there 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Perhaps more realistic?

I don't want realism realism, I  want fantasy!

[Bob Chill]

Just now, bncho said:

It's actually not getting shunted as far south as 6z. HP in Canada is slightly more north than 6z.

That's a primary problem. HP is weaker too and it really needs to be 1035+ to stand ground and make things work. 1030 or less will get pushed out of the way. Especially in the mids. 12z run wasn't what you want to see.

[bncho]

12z GFS was still a great run IMO. DC and points north still stay all frozen. Would really like that HP to trend stronger and slightly more south so snow is more of a possibility.

[TSSN+]

Sleety 

[stormy]

Augusta is 2 degrees colder at 32 at 1 pm Friday compared to 06z

[T. August]

15 minutes ago, T. August said:

I’m worried this one is gonna hurt. Seems like a few op runs will bring us in over the next couple days, but the end result will be a 8-12” hit between Trenton and NYC.

Damn I didn’t think it would fold so quick

[Ji]

its also alot less precip lol. Weenies in boston on twitter are really worried about the HP trending stronger as we get closer and shunting it further south