December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MN Transplant]

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wonder if 18z gfs can do something. It’s a more progressive look out west so I doubt we get enough cold air push  

I like the massive day 9 trough in CA that was completely absent from 12z.  Really makes me believe in these solutions.

[CAPE]

This is a pretty decent H5 look for ejecting a modest wave from the SW towards the MA with cold air pressing southward. Biggest negative is its a bit early in the season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is a pretty decent H5 look for ejecting a modest wave from the SW towards the MA with cold air pressing southward. Biggest negative is its a bit early in the season.

We've gotten snow when there is +300dm over the Aleutian islands and -250dm just south of Greenland on Dec 5.. like never. I look at that map and say the opposite is what we want. Look how there's even 4 cold waves around the N. Pacific RNA (established). 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We've gotten snow when there is +300dm over the Aleutian islands and -250dm just south of Greenland on Dec 5.. like never

Like I said, a bit too early. That said, both the Euro and GFS are hinting at a little something.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Like I said, a bit too early. That said, both the Euro and GFS are hinting at a little something.

I think that's because there's a -EPO a few days before. It takes the US pattern a few days to change after the Pacific changes, but that pattern is going warm. I guess the N. Pacific ridge heading a little polar could keep it cool enough near the Great Lakes. The longer that storm takes to get here, the more likely it is for rain. We want it early while there's still a -EPO in place pushing down a strong High pressure. 

[mitchnick]

32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think that's because there's a -EPO a few days before. It takes the US pattern a few days to change after the Pacific changes, but that pattern is going warm. I guess the N. Pacific ridge heading a little polar could keep it cool enough near the Great Lakes. The longer that storm takes to get here, the more likely it is for rain. We want it early while there's still a -EPO in place pushing down a strong High pressure. 

Reality will be nothing like that map, so no need to fret. 

[Jebman]

9 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

All we need is an Arctic Front for it to hookup with and run to the Benchmark 

That happens I am flyin back to DCA just to see that once in a million year hyper blizzard!

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

It feels good to be back 

I'm ready to be hurt again!! 

Don't forget Lucy...

[mitchnick]

18z Eps AI sorely lacking warm temps over the period once past Thanksgiving Eve.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=eps_aifsens&p=sfct_anom-p105090-imp&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Continuing the illustration showing how I'm thinking about December 1-10 and December 11-25. Here's the framework I am using.

The CPC 8-14 day forecast is a good illustration of how I think things will evolve during the December 1-10 period:

The risks of a faster turn to a warmer pattern in much of the eastern U.S. (not the Great Lakes, northern New England, eastern Canada) have increased with growing ensemble consensus for a predominantly AO+ pattern.

Composite WPO-/EPO-/AO+/PNA- 500 mb Height Anomalies:

ECMWF Weekly 500 mb Forecast for December 8-15:

Composite WPO-/EPO-/AO+/PNA- Temperature Anomalies:

ECMWF Weekly 500 mb 2m Temperature Anomaly Forecast for December 8-15:

Right now, the guidance is still in a low-skill timeframe. What's noteworthy is the change that has taken place in the past few days. For example, this was the ECMWF weekly forecast for the December 18-15 period from three days earlier:

If the guidance holds or strengthens the forecast AO+ beyond December 10, the warmer outcome could become the baseline for that period with perhaps a mid-month shift to the milder pattern. The 18z GEFS is also suggesting that the EPO could go positive. If so, that would further increase the risks for a turn toward milder conditions. 

In sum, December 1-10 still remains on track. One should see cold move into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes and then spread eastward. The Southeast will remain warm due to the resilient SE Ridge. Uncertainty beyond December 10 has increased and the risk of a shift toward a warmer pattern has increased. The guidance will need to be watched closely to see if its turn toward an AO+ persists.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

57 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

If we get the warm pattern beyond the 10th it could very well entrench itself for the remainder of the season.

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

The weeklies change every day! In 3 days they will be different and it will be a new concern. The fact is, the modeling just can't do what we want and hope for it to do. As I get older, it's clear that long range modeling must be viewed with an eye on seasonal trends, both in the actual weather and the model errors/biases. IOW, how have the models been doing with medium and long range forecasts of late and what is the general tenor of the weather. This year, modeling has general been too warm at longer ranges and it frankly hasn't been a toaster oven for the past few months. All this considered, advertised medium/long range warmups should be viewed skeptically until they start to prevail. Until then, don't worry about it at all.

And on a related note, it maybe fine to dissect every medium and long range model run because it's what we do. But until the mr/lr modeling can prove they are worth anything by being accurate and do so with day-to-day consistency, they cause more useless angst than they're worth imho and making forecasts off them with any certainty as I see being made are folly.

Enjoy the cold Thanksgiving holiday weekend (another sign of the coming winter flavor) and forget about December's weather until December!

Rant over.

[cbmclean]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The weeklies change every day! In 3 days they will be different and it will be a new concern. The fact is, the modeling just can't do what we want and hope for it to do. As I get older, it's clear that long range modeling must be viewed with an eye on seasonal trends, both in the actual weather and the model errors/biases. IOW, how have the models been doing with medium and long range forecasts of late and what is the general tenor of the weather. This year, modeling has general been too warm at longer ranges and it frankly hasn't been a toaster oven for the past few months. All this considered, advertised medium/long range warmups should be viewed skeptically until they start to prevail. Until then, don't worry about it at all.

And on a related note, it maybe fine to dissect every medium and long range model run because it's what we do. But until the mr/lr modeling can prove they are worth anything by being accurate and do so with day-to-day consistency, they cause more useless angst than they're worth imho and making forecasts off them with any certainty as I see being made are folly.

Enjoy the cold Thanksgiving holiday weekend (another sign of the coming winter flavor) and forget about December's weather until December!

Rant over.

Your point is well taken, but would you agree that the general trend across modeling the last week or so has been negative from our point of view (eastern CONUS south of Lat 40)?  I think it's fair to take note and discuss on this thread.  I'd say Don Sutherland is about as close to an unemotional, impartial analyst as any on this board, so I tend to pay attention to what he says.  I agree that there are some other posts which may be more emotional and less analytical, and perhaps would be better off in the Panic Room when that gets opened, but as as a guest in this forum I do not presume to make any judgements.

On the flip side I do note the somewhat more positive outlook in 15 day of the EPS AI that you posted.  I noticed during tropical season that the AI models were, at times at least, schooling the physics-based models, so hopefully that is the case here.  

[NorthArlington101]

GFS has some light Turkey Day snow showers for Central VA on Thursday - odd looming outcome. Some flurries for parts of MD Saturday night as well. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Your point is well taken, but would you agree that the general trend across modeling the last week or so has been negative from our point of view (eastern CONUS south of Lat 40)?  I think it's fair to take note and discuss on this thread.  I'd say Don Sutherland is about as close to an unemotional, impartial analyst as any on this board, so I tend to pay attention to what he says.  I agree that there are some other posts which may be more emotional and less analytical, and perhaps would be better off in the Panic Room when that gets opened, but as as a guest in this forum I do not presume to make any judgements.

On the flip side I do note the somewhat more positive outlook in 15 day of the EPS AI that you posted.  I noticed during tropical season that the AI models were, at times at least, schooling the physics-based models, so hopefully that is the case here.  

Negative? Not considering the Eps AI I posted and the 18z Gefs. The weeklies change so much and have been too warm this fall.  The weeklies have such low skill because modeling skill at their range is poor, I honestly no longer put any stock in them. If other people wish to, that's up to them. If you noticed, even Don Sutherland includes more hedges on his analysis than an English garden. But like I  said in my post, I  think discussing modeling that has such poor skill is just the source of unnecessary angst. I'm not suggesting it should be stopped, it's just useless imho. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS has some light Turkey Day snow showers for Central VA on Thursday - odd looming outcome. Some flurries for parts of MD Saturday night as well. 

Gfs colder with the 12/3 threat than 18z. Gotta watch this one. A bit convoluted, but there's a cold High up north doing some dirty work.

[87storms]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Negative? Not considering the Eps AI I posted and the 18z Gefs. The weeklies change so much and have been too warm this fall.  The weeklies have such low skill because modeling skill at their range is poor, I honestly no longer put any stock in them. If other people wish to, that's up to them. If you noticed, even Don Sutherland includes more hedges on his analysis than an English garden. But like I  said in my post, I  think discussing modeling that has such poor skill is just the source of unnecessary angst. I'm not suggesting it should be stopped, it's just useless imho. 

It’s been a miserable Fall for people who prefer warmer weather, that’s for sure. Seems like September got skipped this year and we went right into mid Fall. Latest gfs says December wants to continue that trend.

[mitchnick]

[mitchnick]

Gotta love Gfs temp anomalies after the snow and sleet fest.

[NorthArlington101]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs colder with the 12/3 threat than 18z. Gotta watch this one. A bit convoluted, but there's a cold High up north doing some dirty work.

I’ll take the under 

[Jebman]

37 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It’s been a miserable Fall for people who prefer warmer weather, that’s for sure. Seems like September got skipped this year and we went right into mid Fall. Latest gfs says December wants to continue that trend.

Except for down in the deep southwest where I am, where we have consistently been 10-20 degrees above normal since Sept 1.

We are sick and tired of all the warmth! I am already crying out for an ice age for 984 million years.

But, Mid Atlantic will see numerous snowstorms this winter. Modeling is already hinting at it, and you guys will be staring at modeling then digging snow til your backs break.

[bncho]

30 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll take the under 

Coward! 

[bncho]

i'm stayin up for the euro already???? jeez bro

[bncho]

pretty nice snowfall mean on 0z GEFS, also gave us 40% odds of at lesat 1 inch

[bncho]

0z Euro = quick coating

[WxUSAF]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

The weeklies change every day! In 3 days they will be different and it will be a new concern. The fact is, the modeling just can't do what we want and hope for it to do. As I get older, it's clear that long range modeling must be viewed with an eye on seasonal trends, both in the actual weather and the model errors/biases. IOW, how have the models been doing with medium and long range forecasts of late and what is the general tenor of the weather. This year, modeling has general been too warm at longer ranges and it frankly hasn't been a toaster oven for the past few months. All this considered, advertised medium/long range warmups should be viewed skeptically until they start to prevail. Until then, don't worry about it at all.

And on a related note, it maybe fine to dissect every medium and long range model run because it's what we do. But until the mr/lr modeling can prove they are worth anything by being accurate and do so with day-to-day consistency, they cause more useless angst than they're worth imho and making forecasts off them with any certainty as I see being made are folly.

Enjoy the cold Thanksgiving holiday weekend (another sign of the coming winter flavor) and forget about December's weather until December!

Rant over.

To your point. And this Dec 3 “threat” is the day that looked like a mega torch a few days ago.

 

[NorthArlington101]

Pretty clear “threat” window on the AIFS in the first few days of December. More likely to be on the outside, but hey, it’s something to watch

This is more aggressive then the regular EPS and even a bit more then the GEFS, fwiw

[frd]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

To your point. And this Dec 3 “threat” is the day that looked like a mega torch a few days ago.

SER shifting SE. Modeling has certainly trended to colder outcomes in the East and the SE. .