December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro def brought it back…esp for SE areas. I’d want to see the 12z suite as a whole look better though before believing it. 

I’ve said this for a few years now…off hour runs are different. Folks made fun of that, but I think we are seeing this as a fact for sure. Why? 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ve said this for a few years now…off hour runs are different. Folks made fun of that, but I think we are seeing this as a fact for sure. Why? 

Gfs might be coming around 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs might be coming around 

Are the AI’s still bringing it? If so, that may be a flag to pump the breaks on the no storm idea. Cuz they’ve been steady with it as a system of interest. 

[SouthCoastMA]

If the storm is real, models should start catching on soon without disappearing acts now that we approaching 96 hours

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Are the AI’s still bringing it? If so, that may be a flag to pump the breaks on the no storm idea. 

6z Euro AI was a good hit here, and likely a bit inland

[moneypitmike]

The heaviest set up south of  route 1.  Managed a little here on the fringe.  About an inch so far.

MEZ025>028-101400-
Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Including the cities of Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham,
Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Jefferson, Dresden, Alna, Bremen,
Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset,
Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport,
Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, and Lincolnville
554 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...Area of Heavy Snowfall To Impact Morning Commute...

An area of heavy snow has developed across portions of the Mid-
Coast of ME. Webcam imagery indicates that roads are snow covered
and visibility is reduced. Snowfall accumulations between 1-3" are
likely for portions of the region with locally higher amounts

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

6z Euro AI was a good hit here, and likely a bit inland

Well there ya go…hate to say it, but the machines have been steady…if it materialized huge win for them. And take the other junk and throw em in the trash. If they fail, dump em all into the Liquid Metal pool. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Are the AI’s still bringing it? If so, that may be a flag to pump the breaks on the no storm idea. Cuz they’ve been steady with it as a system of interest. 

 

[WinterWolf]

That doesn’t look bad at all…been super steady with that look. Gonna be very interesting to see if they win this battle. 

[ORH_wxman]

If the solution ends up verifying pretty close to the AI models, that would definitely be a big win for them. They’ve been way steadier than the regular OP runs. 

[brooklynwx99]

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re pretty much there…as soon as one model run shows something bad, you’re hemming and hawing, and saying things like melt all the snow at the ski resorts, and sled trails. 

All ensembles have a very mild pattern coming up

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jesus, it's brutal in here....give it until 12z tomorrow before cancelling. We have an uber-fast flow with two tiny parcels of energy from the arctic phasing while diving SE at break-neck speeds...won't be resolved until late week.

[qg_omega]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

Pattern favors DC to VA area 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, it's brutal in here....give it until 12z tomorrow before cancelling.

Canceling Sunday or the winter?