December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weathafella]

Uncle could be drunk but it has a solid and more widespread system for Tuesday.

[Damage In Tolland]

How warm does it get Dec 25-26? Enough to melt the 23rd snow? Or is it like mid- upper 30’s?

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How warm does it get Dec 25-26? Enough to melt the 23rd snow? Or is it like mid- upper 30’s?

We still don’t know what Tuesday does…Thursday and Friday forget it. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How warm does it get Dec 25-26? Enough to melt the 23rd snow? Or is it like mid- upper 30’s?

38-48 across the state 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

We still don’t know what Tuesday does…Thursday and Friday forget it. 

We have known for days that Tuesday was going to snow. Literally since last Sunday actually 

[Kitz Craver]

Unfortunately it doesn’t look at all cold after the 23rd. It ain’t gonna last

[CoastalWx]

Decent gfs run

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Unfortunately it doesn’t look at all cold after the 23rd. It ain’t gonna last

35-40 even on 12/24

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Unfortunately it doesn’t look at all cold after the 23rd. It ain’t gonna last

24th might stay pretty cold as northerly floW drills down behind low. Bigger question is how warm Cmas gets. Might be 38-40 or it could be like 44-48

[dryslot]

I know SouthCoastMA will love this because i'm the grim reaper but i would lock 12z GFS op if i could.

[weathafella]

Skynet following uncle—Tuesday colder with even Brett happy.  Also much less lasting and amplitude of warmth thereafter.

[LSC97wxnut]

 

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle could be drunk but it has a solid and more widespread system for Tuesday.

Yeah and it has juicier amounts too. Like 3-4” across the pike region. Ukie tries to keep the sfc front south which is what we’d want. 

[LSC97wxnut]

From the house shaker.... Was blown over the house and poked some holes in the roof.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I know SouthCoastMA will love this because i'm the grim reaper but i would lock 12z GFS op if i could.

You and me both. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

From the house shaker.... Was blown over the house and poked some holes in the roof.

Well that’s not good.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

You and me both. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

The AI models basically have taken the place of the old extended GFS runs from a decade or two ago (and even a little further back when it was the MRF)….whenever you needed to see some good solutions, you’d just loop the extended GFS and watch all the cold and snow show up. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

24th might stay pretty cold as northerly floW drills down behind low. Bigger question is how warm Cmas gets. Might be 38-40 or it could be like 44-48

If we can grab a pasty 2-5” deal on the 23rd.. that should last . We had 40ish this week and it lasted until the screamer. And that was powder 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, LSC97wxnut said:

 

Yes!

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If we can grab a pasty 2-5” deal on the 23rd.. that should last . We had 40ish this week and it lasted until the screamer. And that was powder 

Yeah anything over a couple inches will last through Xmas morning. Xmas eve isn’t that warm. Maybe mid 30s and low dews with a solstice sun angle. But a coating to an inch would be in trouble. 

[dryslot]

I look for the GFS hr384 KU's to continuously show up run to run but its been a while.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If we can grab a pasty 2-5” deal on the 23rd.. that should last . We had 40ish this week and it lasted until the screamer. And that was powder 

This time of year, 40 hardly dents it...March and even latter February is a different story.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This time of year, 40 hardly dents it...March and even latter February is a different story.

Yeah in Morch it would vanish faster than Christine on Valentines Day 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro still not getting that sfc front staying south. Quick 1-2” shot on 12/23 and ending as mix/drizzle. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro still not getting that sfc front staying south. Quick 1-2” shot on 12/23 and ending as mix/drizzle. 

It's probably right because it always is when it sucks....but of course fell flat on it's face 12/2.

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro still not getting that sfc front staying south. Quick 1-2” shot on 12/23 and ending as mix/drizzle. 

If other models are moving in a better direction could be the Euro comes around later like dec 2 storm

[NW_of_GYX]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I look for the GFS hr384 KU's to continuously show up run to run but its been a while.

Verbatim that’s a clean up pattern for our area, fire up the jet and roll the dice on the boundary  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's probably right because it always is when it sucks....but of course fell flat on it's face 12/2.

Eh I mean they are subtle differences but it might mean a lot in sensible wx outcome. I’d say the overall trend on that system has been better than 2 days ago….hopefully we push it just enough south to make it better. I could make a decent argument for either direction right now…on one hand, you have the sfc ridge still cresting over Maine at 12z on Tuesday which would argue the Euro is being way too quick to shove the sfc front northeast…OTOH, it’s not exactly a blocked flow there, so maybe it’s right. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro is dog crap.