December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Split open and melt  

The best are those in SNE that are actually positive. Every year since 2022. While I sit back like the fat kid on Stand By Me watching them puke all over each other in the pie eating contest. 

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This one’s very easy . Put the qpf maps away. You’ve done this long enough. Though we may do better here farther East 

Easy is not a word I've used frequently the last few years... I do like the tight low/mid level thermal gradient, and know if we can force enough convergence into that gradient, it would produce a decent snowfall?  But I need to see consistent guidance trending that way.  If I do, I'll move from a general 1 to 2 to a call to a 2-to-4-inch forecast, biased east and southeast.

I'll be working from the Cape this weekend, so I expect to see snow even if CT underperforms.

  

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s the million dollar question, talking with Dylan now about that.  I’m leaning model blend which gives about .15-.30” qpf across the state. However if gfs and others trend the wrong way tonight then this is just another coating or so. 

It seems so tenuous with the guidance split, but then I think we’re in a scenario where mid level magic would bring a solid coating at least even if we do get a messenger shuffle. Totally get the angst in MA but for CT I think this looks…I dare say decent. As long as folks aren’t thinking we’re going to trend to a warning event. Which I know nobody here does lol. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It seems so tenuous with the guidance split, but then I think we’re in a scenario where mid level magic would bring a solid coating at least even if we do get a messenger shuffle. Totally get the angst in MA but for CT I think this looks…I dare say decent. As long as folks aren’t thinking we’re going to trend to a warning event. Which I know nobody here does lol. 

Yes agree, especially south of 84. 

[ScituateWX]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The best are those in SNE that are actually positive. Every year since 2022. While I sit back like the fat kid on Stand By Me watching them puke all over each other in the pie eating contest. 

It’s weather having a little one now and another on the way all I do now is keep an eye on it and not get emotionally invested. As one who plows snow it would be great to get snow but it is what it is and there are plenty of other positives with each day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Decent shot I am in a corridor with least snow in New England after Sunday.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ScituateWX said:

It’s weather having a little one now and another on the way all I do now is keep an eye on it and not get emotionally invested. As one who plows snow it would be great to get snow but it is what it is and there are plenty of other positives with each day.

I get invested. I could use this about now. I’m done getting bent over and having Kevin’s Craftsman tractor rammed into my cheeks.

[UnitedWx]

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tightening gradient pile south / 

"pile" south/north... a steaming pile?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Decent shot I am in a corridor with least snow in New England after Sunday.

If I somehow get 2 inches it’ll last three days. Wow deep winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Decent shot I am in a corridor with least snow in New England after Sunday.

Well we’ve got 0.0 in much of the region SE of HFD to ORH line halfway thru one of the 3 winter months. A rarity . 1” would be welcomed 

[UnitedWx]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I just want something to go right. Literally one event in 4 year has gone right and it was 5.9” last January. I’m just done at this point. Dews and beach weather can’t come soon enough.

Be nice if we could ditch this 80s vibe for the next decade. At some point we're heading south probably around 2037, so hopefully things change for the better. The other half has severe S.A.D. so I agreed we'd go after I retire. I guess I'll need to practice your mindset lol

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Be nice if we could ditch this 80s vibe for the next decade. At some point we're heading south probably around 2037, so hopefully things change for the better. The other half has severe S.A.D. so I agreed we'd go after I retire. I guess I'll need to practice your mindset lol

I love winter that’s still my favorite. 
But as Trump kills the economy hopefully it’s killed enough so I can get something in Florida soon.

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love winter that’s still my favorite. 
But as Trump kills the economy hopefully it’s killed enough so I can get something in Florida soon.

 

 

Stop it. No snow weenie would ever truly say that. Floridas climate is like hell to me.  3 months of deep summer like we have is perfect 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love winter that’s still my favorite. 
But as Trump kills the economy hopefully it’s killed enough so I can get something in Florida soon.

 

 

Please, stop now. Take a break. Now you’re bringing politics in? Dude you need help. 

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I love winter that’s still my favorite. 
But as Trump kills the economy hopefully it’s killed enough so I can get something in Florida soon.

 

 

Well... as to FL, that one is banned on my list. Eastern TN or Western NC top of our list 

[UnitedWx]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Stop it. No snow weenie would ever truly say that. Floridas climate is like hell to me.  3 months lie we have is perfect 

He said his he likes his weenie in the sand... that'll make any man unhinged, no wonder he's pissed!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

He said his he likes his weenie in the sand... that'll make any man unhinged, no wonder he's pissed!

FL real estate is already tanking so we take.

[Hazey]

It’s a sloppy phase job. Doesn’t get cookin until St. Nick latitude. Slow to develop. Not even much here. Bummer. Track decent. Would be a different story if it had more meat earlier.

[Damage In Tolland]

What did ensembles show Xmas week ? Still muted torch with HP in E Canada?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What did ensembles show Xmas week ? Still muted torch with HP in E Canada?

Yes same idea, torch and pre up nearby with lingering cold over New England and Canada 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

FL real estate is already tanking so we take.

The economy is booming bro, best ever. A+++++. When you get your DOGE and tariff refunds you could probably easily put a down payment on a place in Florida and keep the house here. Maybe sell Weymouth, buy in Stowe?

Lets hope we get some snow this weekend 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

NAM looks a smudge better at 48

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

NAM looks a smudge better at 48

Much better at 54 very healthy precious shield and further north 

[ORH_wxman]

NAM might be a better than 18z 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM might be a better than 18z 

Better tilt to trough precip a bit further north , probably a widespread 1-2” north and 2-4” south coast this run .. edit the meat is still just a bit too far south for us.. could be 4”+ widespread in that band.. but a relatively believable Nam run 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Better tilt to trough precip a bit further north , probably a widespread 1-2” north and 2-4” south coast this run .. edit the meat is still just a bit too far south for us.. could be 4”+ widespread in that band.. but a relatively believable Nam run 

Yeah we get an initial push but that really deeper lift is just getting shunted SE. We need a little more vort energy to put a kink in the flow to try and nudge this just a bit north. But even the initial fronto gets a general 1-3”. Guess that’s better than nothing. 

[CoastalWx]

Can’t develop a closed 850 low. Be happy with 1-2”past the canal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd jump at 1-3" at this point.

[kdxken]

I wonder if he's talking about Wolfie?