December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro def brought it back…esp for SE areas. I’d want to see the 12z suite as a whole look better though before believing it. 

I’ve said this for a few years now…off hour runs are different. Folks made fun of that, but I think we are seeing this as a fact for sure. Why? 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ve said this for a few years now…off hour runs are different. Folks made fun of that, but I think we are seeing this as a fact for sure. Why? 

Gfs might be coming around 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs might be coming around 

Are the AI’s still bringing it? If so, that may be a flag to pump the breaks on the no storm idea. Cuz they’ve been steady with it as a system of interest. 

[SouthCoastMA]

If the storm is real, models should start catching on soon without disappearing acts now that we approaching 96 hours

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Are the AI’s still bringing it? If so, that may be a flag to pump the breaks on the no storm idea. 

6z Euro AI was a good hit here, and likely a bit inland

[moneypitmike]

The heaviest set up south of  route 1.  Managed a little here on the fringe.  About an inch so far.

MEZ025>028-101400-
Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Including the cities of Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham,
Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Jefferson, Dresden, Alna, Bremen,
Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset,
Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport,
Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, and Lincolnville
554 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...Area of Heavy Snowfall To Impact Morning Commute...

An area of heavy snow has developed across portions of the Mid-
Coast of ME. Webcam imagery indicates that roads are snow covered
and visibility is reduced. Snowfall accumulations between 1-3" are
likely for portions of the region with locally higher amounts

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

6z Euro AI was a good hit here, and likely a bit inland

Well there ya go…hate to say it, but the machines have been steady…if it materialized huge win for them. And take the other junk and throw em in the trash. If they fail, dump em all into the Liquid Metal pool. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Are the AI’s still bringing it? If so, that may be a flag to pump the breaks on the no storm idea. Cuz they’ve been steady with it as a system of interest. 

 

[WinterWolf]

That doesn’t look bad at all…been super steady with that look. Gonna be very interesting to see if they win this battle. 

[ORH_wxman]

If the solution ends up verifying pretty close to the AI models, that would definitely be a big win for them. They’ve been way steadier than the regular OP runs. 

[brooklynwx99]

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re pretty much there…as soon as one model run shows something bad, you’re hemming and hawing, and saying things like melt all the snow at the ski resorts, and sled trails. 

All ensembles have a very mild pattern coming up

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jesus, it's brutal in here....give it until 12z tomorrow before cancelling. We have an uber-fast flow with two tiny parcels of energy from the arctic phasing while diving SE at break-neck speeds...won't be resolved until late week.

[qg_omega]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is literally all it takes. slightly more lean westward with the TPV lobe -> higher downstream heights -> more buckling

Pattern favors DC to VA area 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, it's brutal in here....give it until 12z tomorrow before cancelling.

Canceling Sunday or the winter?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

That would probably be a bit better than implied across my area, over to @HIPPYVALLEY in Greenfield due to some modest mid level banding.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Canceling Sunday or the winter?  

Sunday, but in some cases, both.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

All ensembles have a very mild pattern coming up

Buy. Been touting that for a month.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

How did ensembles in all camps look?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How did ensembles in all camps look?

EURO and EURO AI focus on SE areas, GEFS mostly OTS, and GEPS develops a bit too late, but decent SOP.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO and EURO AI focus on SE areas, GEFS mostly OTS, and GEPS develops a bit too late, but decent SOP.

That’s not a bad look at this early stage. I think we see imported on out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s not a bad look at this early stage. I think we see imported on out.

It's not ideal, but correctable with ease at this range, especially given the sensitivity to subtle changes that we are seeing in guidance as a result of the phase on the fly.

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, it's brutal in here....give it until 12z tomorrow before cancelling. We have an uber-fast flow with two tiny parcels of energy from the arctic phasing while diving SE at break-neck speeds...won't be resolved until late week.

Yeah that’s pretty much the perfect way to describe it. This thing has always had a lower ceiling, but I wouldn’t shut the door on something minor yet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If the solution ends up verifying pretty close to the AI models, that would definitely be a big win for them. They’ve been way steadier than the regular OP runs. 

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me.    

Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far along their northern arcs.  More typically, that's a narrow band.  

If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a lessen it is about to learn. 

[Kitz Craver]

Did AI do well with the last event or fail miserably? I don’t recall

[40/70 Benchmark]

I could see a low-end warning if everything broke right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me.    

Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience; flat 1000+ mb surface waves sufficating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far on the northern arc.  More typically, that's a narrow band.  

If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a less it is about to learn. 

I think it depends on whether it develops at all in the mid levels prior to passing by...if not, then probably overdone.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me.    

Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far on the northern arc.  More typically, that's a narrow band.  

If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a less it is about to learn. 

They always look like an ensemble product to me beyond 24-48hrs. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it depends on whether it develops at all in the mid levels prior to passing by...if not, then probably overdone.

It just looks cartoon resolved with that one particular metric is all.  

It's not one or the other, tho.  It can be developed more and mashed S of CT with flurries on the Cape too. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They always look like an ensemble product to me beyond 24-48hrs. 

yeah....  good way to describe.   I sometimes liken as NAVGEM-ish too