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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread


Torch Tiger
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro def brought it back…esp for SE areas. I’d want to see the 12z suite as a whole look better though before believing it. 

I’ve said this for a few years now…off hour runs are different. Folks made fun of that, but I think we are seeing this as a fact for sure. Why? 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ve said this for a few years now…off hour runs are different. Folks made fun of that, but I think we are seeing this as a fact for sure. Why? 

Gfs might be coming around 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh108_trend.gif

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The heaviest set up south of  route 1.  Managed a little here on the fringe.  About an inch so far.

MEZ025>028-101400-
Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-
Including the cities of Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham,
Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Jefferson, Dresden, Alna, Bremen,
Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset,
Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport,
Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, and Lincolnville
554 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

...Area of Heavy Snowfall To Impact Morning Commute...

An area of heavy snow has developed across portions of the Mid-
Coast of ME. Webcam imagery indicates that roads are snow covered
and visibility is reduced. Snowfall accumulations between 1-3" are
likely for portions of the region with locally higher amounts
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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

6z Euro AI was a good hit here, and likely a bit inland

Well there ya go…hate to say it, but the machines have been steady…if it materialized huge win for them. And take the other junk and throw em in the trash. If they fail, dump em all into the Liquid Metal pool. 

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32 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re pretty much there…as soon as one model run shows something bad, you’re hemming and hawing, and saying things like melt all the snow at the ski resorts, and sled trails. 

All ensembles have a very mild pattern coming up

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, it's brutal in here....give it until 12z tomorrow before cancelling. We have an uber-fast flow with two tiny parcels of energy from the arctic phasing while diving SE at break-neck speeds...won't be resolved until late week.

Yeah that’s pretty much the perfect way to describe it. This thing has always had a lower ceiling, but I wouldn’t shut the door on something minor yet. 

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59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If the solution ends up verifying pretty close to the AI models, that would definitely be a big win for them. They’ve been way steadier than the regular OP runs. 

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me.    

Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far along their northern arcs.  More typically, that's a narrow band.  

If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a lessen it is about to learn. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me.    

Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience; flat 1000+ mb surface waves sufficating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far on the northern arc.  More typically, that's a narrow band.  

If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a less it is about to learn. 

I think it depends on whether it develops at all in the mid levels prior to passing by...if not, then probably overdone.

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Those solutions look over-produced with QPF to me.    

Just a gross linear correlation based upon experience, so tfwiw; flat 1000+ mb surface waves suffocating amid a compressed non-hydrostatic field don't have envelopes that extend so far on the northern arc.  More typically, that's a narrow band.  

If this AI is self-learning as it is espoused as being, I suspect that is a less it is about to learn. 

They always look like an ensemble product to me beyond 24-48hrs. 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it depends on whether it develops at all in the mid levels prior to passing by...if not, then probably overdone.

It just looks cartoon resolved with that one particular metric is all.  

It's not one or the other, tho.  It can be developed more and mashed S of CT with flurries on the Cape too. 

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