December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[HIPPYVALLEY]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The cutters return after next week, so soon this will all be I remember when stuff.

Hopefully, we can get some deep cold between cutters…

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

More than that…I believe it’s not until like 1/3 or so when we start to gain in the morning. 
Ya, enjoy the extra 3 or 4 seconds this afternoon…it’ll go by fast. 

I think its even later than that actually...like closer to Jan 10?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I think its even later than that actually...like closer to Jan 10?

I had the times of the rises and sets, and I thought I remember seeing it was Jan 3rd or 4th…but the days are still shortening for anther couple weeks yet. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I loathe the fast flow overall for SNE, but I'd rather have that with plenty of opportunities for something than tracking one shortwave every 10 days. 

Actually after going through the last few winters...I would much rather than one shortwave every 10 days. 

There clearly is meteorological reasonings and physics involved as to why these fast flows with many shortwaves just don't pan out. I legit am starting to believe the mindset now of "rather having many shortwaves and hoping it pans out" is just a defensive mechanism to try and bring hope to something which just isn't there. 

 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I totally get the angst with...you know, North Carolina having measurable snow and much of the subforum failing in the early December chance, but this stuff is a little short sighted, even for me who reminder: canceled winter early January last year and that was still too optimistic lol. 

We really want to cash in on the pattern before whatever relaxation, I've said it's imperative. But even if we didn't if we got some random clipper to drop an inch or two on Dec 24 most would be happy and turn the page to tracking for 2026. You can only rely on it so much, but not having an absolute blowtorch or well defined Grinch showing up at range is a good thing. A really good thing. 

By Christmas Day, BDL's monthly and seasonal normal are 7.6"/9.7" respectively. At BDR they are 4.0"/5.0". We should hope for climo, and I think it can be done, as much of a torpedo pattern this is. 

I loathe the fast flow overall for SNE, but I'd rather have that with plenty of opportunities for something than tracking one shortwave every 10 days. 

I couldn’t agree more Don…I’ll take this and the good cold any day. Something will hit.   

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I had the times of the rises and sets, and I thought I remember seeing it was Jan 3rd or 4th…but the days are still shortening for anther couple weeks yet. 

you're right.

January 5th is the latest sunrise (~7:19 AM) then it gets earlier from there.

Its like the 10th/11th when we start gaining by the minutes 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I totally get the angst with...you know, North Carolina having measurable snow and much of the subforum failing in the early December chance, but this stuff is a little short sighted, even for me who reminder: canceled winter early January last year and that was still too optimistic lol. 

We really want to cash in on the pattern before whatever relaxation, I've said it's imperative. But even if we didn't if we got some random clipper to drop an inch or two on Dec 24 most would be happy and turn the page to tracking for 2026. You can only rely on it so much, but not having an absolute blowtorch or well defined Grinch showing up at range is a good thing. A really good thing. 

By Christmas Day, BDL's monthly and seasonal normal are 7.6"/9.7" respectively. At BDR they are 4.0"/5.0". We should hope for climo, and I think it can be done, as much of a torpedo pattern this is. 

I loathe the fast flow overall for SNE, but I'd rather have that with plenty of opportunities for something than tracking one shortwave every 10 days. 

Well said!

One question I do have is there's been a lot of talk over the last several years of a fast flow. Not sure why we keep having that and why it's been such a major player for so long, but is there a chance that that will relax? Why are we having that fast flow happening over the last several winter seasons? Just trying to understand that part. 

Appreciate your insight as well

[Spanks45]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, we know this on 12/9? This is a foolish statement.  But you go ahead and roll with that. Maybe you’ll be correct? 

Honestly, I don't like how cold it has been the past month and a half....At some point, the switch is going to flip and my worry is it will be sometime mid to late January through February during our climo snowfall periods. I would almost rather have this time period be close to average heading into the holidays. Despite what averages show, my firewood burn rate has been at an all time high here, lol...Here is to me being wrong, I am quite ok with that and will be first to call myself out

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually after going through the last few winters...I would much rather than one shortwave every 10 days. 

There clearly is meteorological reasonings and physics involved as to why these fast flows with many shortwaves just don't pan out. I legit am starting to believe the mindset now of "rather having many shortwaves and hoping it pans out" is just a defensive mechanism to try and bring hope to something which just isn't there. 

 

So what you’re saying is that there are no opportunities for us in SNE, but every other part of the country has opportunities?  I mean it’s literally snowing all around us. At some point Paul…it’s hard to escape everything.  It could happen, but I don’t think it’s smart to say there aren’t any opportunities, or they(the opportunities) aren’t there.  

[SouthCoastMA]

I don't even care about other parts of the country. Has no bearing on me, unless its something as egregious as 2010. You just need to keep in mind December climo, and hopefully 12/14 pans out so we are all on track or even above. 

I think what everyone is sensing is a brewing grincher on the 24th/25th, and the angst and anxiety is starting to bubble over. Lock it in!

[dryslot]

56 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

Honestly I've found below -15 it doesn't make much difference, we've snowmobiled at -25 to -35 and been comfortable with high windshields with low cross breeze, versus -10 and high cross wind was the worst I've ever rode. That -40 morning my old 95 Jeep sprung right to life versus at -10 it had an issue you had to hold your foot on the gas for 5 mins to prevent it from stalling, never figured that out before she rotted out a few years later. 

I rode in -20 to-35 conditions up in the county several years back on back to back days, Once its that cold, You can't tell the difference from -20 to -35.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Honestly, I don't like how cold it has been the past month and a half....At some point, the switch is going to flip and my worry is it will be sometime mid to late January through February during our climo snowfall periods. I would almost rather have this time period be close to average heading into the holidays. Despite what averages show, my firewood burn rate has been at an all time high here, lol...Here is to me being wrong, I am quite ok with that and will be first to call myself out

I can understand your point….but if we were just at average, there’d be people squawking there isn’t any cold in sight…Decembers suck, bla bla bla…so you can’t win. Now we have the big cold, and it’s literally snowing everywhere but here. Nothing we can do. Grin and bear it. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So what you’re saying is that there are no opportunities for us in SNE, but every other part of the country has opportunities?  I mean it’s literally snowing all around us. At some point Paul…it’s hard to escape everything.  It could happen, but I don’t think it’s smart to say there aren’t any opportunities, or they(the opportunities) aren’t there.  

From a common sense perspective that makes sense, but it clearly isn't playing out that way so there must be some sort of meteorological reasoning. We can attribute it to "bad luck" but the atmosphere doesn't work on luck, the atmosphere and weather are governed by principles, physics, etc. The atmosphere is telling us a story and we need to dive deep into the woods to figure out this story. I really hope deep in the modeling and physics worlds, there is work being done to better understand how/why the atmosphere has evolved these last few years...why these faster flow, why models are struggling with it. The only way forecast models can improve on this is if we better understand the process and then taking that knowledge and translating that into mathematical language so computer forecast models can understand it. 

There clearly is a reason as to why things just aren't working out and we do have some basic ideas and knowledge into this, but hoping for things to play out in favor just because the chances seem to be there isn't meteorologically correct. 

We are seeing the same thing over and over...fast flow, certain guidance over amplifying in specific time ranges, a whole lot of models guidance swings inside 72 hours...there are reasons for this.

[Kitz Craver]

Seems we are in a warm/wet, cold/dry type pattern in SNE. 42 and rain tomorrow followed by frigid temps, again. SMH

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

52 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

outside of a rogue blizzard, looks like we are well on our way to another below to well below average winter with regards to snowfall....cool stuff

No one knows. Just have to hope and pray often. It’s all we have, it’s all we can do.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Seems we are in a warm/wet, cold/dry type pattern in SNE. 42 and rain tomorrow followed by frigid temps, again. SMH

Exactly why we need to get back to patterns which are southern stream dominant with weaker northern streams which phase in...bring back the storms riding up the coast. Forget this whole "we can do well in northern stream" crap. Maybe there was a winter or two where it worked out and that's what people cling too...just like for the longest time everyone was obsessed with weak La Nina's because of 1995-1996. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

57 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Ensembles don’t look great for Sunday. Lots of nothing with some decent members mixed in.

i think it’s a dangerous game for people to be playing with regards to thinking this one will have to work out because we’ve been porked so bad 

I'll try to stay safe while expecting snow-

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

outside of a rogue blizzard, looks like we are well on our way to another below to well below average winter with regards to snowfall....cool stuff

You average what, 2" at this point?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll try to stay safe while expecting snow-

Single or double wrapped?

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

From a common sense perspective that makes sense, but it clearly isn't playing out that way so there must be some sort of meteorological reasoning. We can attribute it to "bad luck" but the atmosphere doesn't work on luck, the atmosphere and weather are governed by principles, physics, etc. The atmosphere is telling us a story and we need to dive deep into the woods to figure out this story. I really hope deep in the modeling and physics worlds, there is work being done to better understand how/why the atmosphere has evolved these last few years...why these faster flow, why models are struggling with it. The only way forecast models can improve on this is if we better understand the process and then taking that knowledge and translating that into mathematical language so computer forecast models can understand it. 

There clearly is a reason as to why things just aren't working out and we do have some basic ideas and knowledge into this, but hoping for things to play out in favor just because the chances seem to be there isn't meteorologically correct. 

We are seeing the same thing over and over...fast flow, certain guidance over amplifying in specific time ranges, a whole lot of models guidance swings inside 72 hours...there are reasons for this.

The fast flow makes us more prone to bad luck because it disrupts attempts at phasing (suppression), and disrupts blocking (cutters/huggers).

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Single or double wrapped?

Quad-role.

[dryslot]

Some of the short range models are starting to tick a bit colder for tonight and tomorrow, Hope they are getting a clue in the coastal plain up here, I would like to believe the reggie but i don't.

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

From a common sense perspective that makes sense, but it clearly isn't playing out that way so there must be some sort of meteorological reasoning. We can attribute it to "bad luck" but the atmosphere doesn't work on luck, the atmosphere and weather are governed by principles, physics, etc. The atmosphere is telling us a story and we need to dive deep into the woods to figure out this story. I really hope deep in the modeling and physics worlds, there is work being done to better understand how/why the atmosphere has evolved these last few years...why these faster flow, why models are struggling with it. The only way forecast models can improve on this is if we better understand the process and then taking that knowledge and translating that into mathematical language so computer forecast models can understand it. 

There clearly is a reason as to why things just aren't working out and we do have some basic ideas and knowledge into this, but hoping for things to play out in favor just because the chances seem to be there isn't meteorologically correct. 

We are seeing the same thing over and over...fast flow, certain guidance over amplifying in specific time ranges, a whole lot of models guidance swings inside 72 hours...there are reasons for this.

Luck, probability, whatever you want to call it…it’s that.

Obviously some winters have patterns more conducive to enhanced wintry threats and some don’t. But in the end I put them on a normalized curve. Most seasons fall +/- 1SD of the mean (I’m talking threats…not snowfall which is skewed). Then you get seasons where it feels like everything hits and seasons where it feels like everything misses.

But there’s nothing that climatologically favors the Mid Atlantic over us. Sure, there’s some patterns where it can because of significant suppression, but they’re just getting a little lucky right now (which feels like bad luck to SNE).

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The fast flow makes us more prone to bad luck because it disrupts attempts as phasing (suppression), and disrupts blocking (cutters/huggers).

Yes, bad luck in the sense of the end result for us and precisely why the thinking of "well I'll take my odds with plenty of chances" is kind of pointless. Big deal if it happens once out of every 100 chances. Why does it even matter what guidance has in the 96-120 hr window...who cares if its showing a bit better with ridging in region x or that its a bit sharper with the lead shortwave, yada yada yada...the end result is generally 99% of the time always going to be the same and that is a reflection of the state and regime which will dictate the final outcome

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Luck, probability, whatever you want to call it…it’s that.

Obviously some winters have patterns more conducive to enhanced wintry threats and some don’t. But in the end I put them on a normalized curve. Most seasons fall +/- 1SD of the mean (I’m talking threats…not snowfall which is skewed). Then you gets seasons where it feels like everything hits and seasons where it feels like everything misses.

But there’s nothing that climatologically favors the Mid Atlantic over us. Sure, there’s some patterns where it can because of significant suppression, but they’re just getting a little lucky right now (which feels like bad luck to SNE).

I like this idea of assessment here. Focus on potential versus snowfall. 

But I guess one challenge with using something as potential threats...I feel like that can be quite subjective. There would have to be solid baseline definition of what is defined as a possible threat. But I would certainly prefer to measure a season on potential events and number of events versus something like snowfall alone.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll try to stay safe while expecting snow-

This made me LOL. The amount of psychological hedging on here is hilarious. We’ve got people calling off the Sunday storm despite it still being on a decent number of ensembles. Then canceling winter. Crazy stuff. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I like this idea of assessment here. Focus on potential versus snowfall. 

But I guess one challenge with using something as potential threats...I feel like that can be quite subjective. There would have to be solid baseline definition of what is defined as a possible threat. But I would certainly prefer to measure a season on potential events and number of events versus something like snowfall alone.

I’m not really trying to quantify it. I’m just thinking H5 shortwaves and vortmaxes and where they tend to move through the eastern US.

But when I see this south of the Delmarva in early December, with cold in place, I just think of it as in the southerly extreme of probable outcomes.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’m not really trying to quantify it. I’m just thinking H5 shortwaves and vortmaxes and where they tend to move through the eastern US.

But when I see this south of the Delmarva in early December, with cold in place, I just think of it as in the southerly extreme of probable outcomes.

Makes total sense...that's along the lines of what I was figuring you were getting at. 

 

[weatherwiz]

Yeah its way too early to be cancelling anything. I mean what's climo right now...probably ranging from 2-5" and of course probably even under 2" closer towards the coast. Not having snow on the ground on Dec. 9 doesn't mean winter is cancelled or winter will be bad.