December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I think it is coming this season. Not all of it but a-lot. More than average for sure. 

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think it is coming this season. Not all of it but a-lot. More than average for sure. 

Did you really think that? 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think it is coming this season. Not all of it but a-lot. More than average for sure. 

Definitely

Gfs is showing a very active pattern. Alot of us have to be patient. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think it is coming this season. Not all of it but a-lot. More than average for sure. 

Hard not to have that feeling actually especially with the way autumn played out.

[Torch Tiger]

That was quite the wintry 0z gfs run.  days n days like ineedsnow mentioned. It's been showing up and hopefully comes to fruition. Also hoses NYC south so it's an added bonus! 

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I think it is coming this season. Not all of it but a-lot. More than average for sure. 

what is? maybe forum melts, not sure you get more than 50" tbh.  Hope you get 100" though

[Snowedin]

31 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

what is? maybe forum melts, not sure you get more than 50" tbh.  Hope you get 100" though

[Torch Tiger]

27 minutes ago, Snowedin said:

or bust 

[Torch Tiger]

0z gefs etc. look (relatively) cold through 12/20 

[kdxken]

26° enjoying the warmth while I can. 

 

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS trying for something Monday and Thursday

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

6z GFS trying for something Monday and Thursday

Gfs is drunk Sunday night. Nothing really shows that.

[CoastalWx]

Still need to watch the 11th-ish. 

[WxWatcher007]

Snowing nicely under an Ontario LES band. Arctic front is shaping up behind it.

 

 

I still think we see some flakes in SNE later, though the signal looks meh verbatim on the guidance.

Arctic hounds to arrive later today with falling temps and gusts to 20-30. Radiators mount up later tonight. We’ll see how low we can go…might even get single digits back in CT tonight. 

[Kitz Craver]

Not a horrible GFS run

[Damage In Tolland]

Norlun 

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Norlun 

Seemed to me like models kinda lost it

[Kitz Craver]

Nice to see the mid month warm up really muted, hopefully it’s not just waiting for the perfect time…

[WxWatcher007]

Front’s not here and I dropped 5.6° in 25 minutes under this band. 

[WxWatcher007]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Front’s not here and I dropped 5.6° in 25 minutes under this band. 

Actually, maybe I’m wrong? SLK went from a SW to NNW wind on that temp crash. This is pretty cool to witness. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Nothing too exciting over the next 10 days. Maybe it will change for next week.

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Seemed to me like models kinda lost it

BOX thinks signal got stronger . Who knows 

Model guidance continues to show an inverted trough positioned
across the region late Fri into Sat with subtle hints of convergence
in the wind fields. This could potentially provide better forcing
for a more organized band of precipitation. Can`t rule out a brief
deformation-type band on the backside of the system later Saturday
as cooler air pushes in from the west. Details still to be ironed
out for timing of these more organized bands of showers and precip
type. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Nothing too exciting over the next 10 days. Maybe it will change for next week.

Yep....Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Most boring "active" pattern I've ever seen. The three most prevalent words on the forum right now are inverted, trough and trying...all you need to know.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep....Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Most boring "active" pattern I've ever seen. The three most prevalent words on the forum right now are inverted, trough and trying...all you need to know.

I can hear the screams from a police cruiser in Manhattan 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

BOX thinks signal got stronger . Who knows 

Model guidance continues to show an inverted trough positioned
across the region late Fri into Sat with subtle hints of convergence
in the wind fields. This could potentially provide better forcing
for a more organized band of precipitation. Can`t rule out a brief
deformation-type band on the backside of the system later Saturday
as cooler air pushes in from the west. Details still to be ironed
out for timing of these more organized bands of showers and precip
type. 

It’s really meh. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yep....Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Most boring "active" pattern I've ever seen. The three most prevalent words on the forum right now are inverted, trough and trying...all you need to know.

Wild times breh 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can hear the screams from a police cruiser in Manhattan 

Steve is a candidate to get angered by that, too. My rule of thumb is if you are left equivocating with your schmenzer in your hand when asked exactly what you're tracking, then you aren't really tracking anything, and should expect nothing.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Steve is a candidate to to get angered by that, too. My rule of thumb is if you are left equivocating with your schmenzer in your hand when asked exactly what you're tracking, then you aren't really tracking anything, and should expect nothing.

Hey, at least you got the grass covered. I don’t really see anything until later next week and obviously that is questionable. But all the models hint at what I think is a decent look with some chances going forward. Probably nothing big although the GFS offered a coastal later in the run.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey, at least you got the grass covered. I don’t really see anything until later next week and obviously that is questionable. But all the models hint at what I think is a decent look with some chances going forward. Probably nothing big although the GFS offered a coastal later in the run.

Just get me a GD inch 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey, at least you got the grass covered. I don’t really see anything until later next week and obviously that is questionable. But all the models hint at what I think is a decent look with some chances going forward. Probably nothing big although the GFS offered a coastal later in the run.

Yea, looks festive in my area...you can see it dwindle once I hit 495, and then scarce patches inside of 128. Must be all that elevation I have in them thar hills of Methuen.