December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[eduggs]

I'd like to see a sharper trof like last night's GFS and UK. That allows more intense and widespread precipitation and it also anchors the surface high further west in Quebec due to the strongest upper level convergence staying further west. With a more positively tilted trof, the surface convergence shifts east and the surface high goes with it.

(upper levels and surface are connected in the sense that converging air aloft tends to sink [surface high pressure] and diverging air aloft tends to rise [surface low pressure])

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I thought the Euro is usually overamped and the gfs is too progressive.

Obviously not after 12Z run

[psv88]

We are back to bashing all models that don’t show our preferred solutions and praising the models that do, no matter what model it is. 
 

gotta love this place. 

[North and West]

We are back to bashing all models that don’t show our preferred solutions and praising the models that do, no matter what model it is. 
 
gotta love this place. 

.

[milleand]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

We are back to bashing all models that don’t show our preferred solutions and praising the models that do, no matter what model it is. 
 

gotta love this place. 

Tis the season !

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

We are back to bashing all models that don’t show our preferred solutions and praising the models that do, no matter what model it is. 
 

gotta love this place. 

Yeah, and it doesn’t matter if they are a warminista or weenie - everyone cherry picks what model supports their position.  And everyone is right!  At least for a time…
 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

nobody knows what's going to happen yet, we know with our luck we usually get a whiff or a cold rain so chances are against us. Let's just sit back and enjoy the tracking that's half the fun! well maybe 25% of the fun. 

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

nobody knows what's going to happen yet, we know with our luck we usually get a whiff or a cold rain so chances are against us. Let's just sit back and enjoy the tracking that's half the fun! well maybe 25% of the fun. 

Hopefully we get a frozen event or two in December-always love holiday snow/ice.

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully we get a frozen event or two in December-always love holiday snow/ice.

i need two feet of snow to be happy and 36 hour dumping! 

[MJO812]

Gfs continues to be the most amped model. Inland does really well. Rain for the coast. 

[vegan_edible]

in albany for the next month and a half. 18z GFS is a dream

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs continues to be the most amped model. Inland does really well. Rain for the coast. 

really different solutions between the GFS and most other models - IMO GFS is too amped and will trend further south and east similar to the benchmark solution it had previously.... and other models will trend west closer to that solution....18Z is a leftover 12Z solution anyways - newer data at 0Z

[WeatherGeek2025]

i just have this feeling where this is going to whiff

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i just have this feeling where this is going to whiff

and the amped GFS solution is wrong now ?

 

[snywx]

14 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i just have this feeling where this is going to whiff

More of a chance of rain than a whiff IMO

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

in albany for the next month and a half. 18z GFS is a dream

Ain’t that awesome. 

[NEG NAO]

The 18Z Euro AI has the storm closer to the coast now

[MJO812]

Euro would also be closer

[MJO812]

Icon

[WeatherGeek2025]

to be fair icon is literally the worst model, we have to look at the euro and see if it made that west trend

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

to be fair icon is literally the worst model, we have to look at the euro and see if it made that west trend

Gfs is still amped

All rain here on the coast 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is still amped

All rain here on the coast 

Canadian is now amped - Euro AI is barely a miss east Ukie is now amped as of tonight looks like a rainstorm in the immediate NYC Metro - areas to the north I-84 etc. still in question. 

[Snowlover11]

well, that was fun while it last.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is still amped

All rain here on the coast 

Lock it in 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

well, that was fun while it last.

Only positive out of this rainstorm next week is with an active pattern more cold enough air will be dragged in behind it since the GFS is leading the way in this pattern December 7 it produces this

[wdrag]

Dec 2-3 with snow interest, especially I84 where the prob for an inch or more is 50%. Dec 6-7 very uncertain due to large scale modeling differences.  I would think these are our first two chance for minor measurable CP.  

[North and West]

Dec 2-3 with snow interest, especially I84 where the prob for an inch or more is 50%. Dec 6-7 very uncertain due to large scale modeling differences.  I would think these are our first two chance for minor measurable CP.  

CP?


.

[Snowlover11]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

CP?


.

Central Park

[wdrag]

Thanksgiving prevails... Create new family memories and think about those who cannot be with us.

I think Dec 2-3 will need a thread for first measurable sleet-snow NYC CP with a potential moderate snowstorm I84 corridor with coastal flooding Late Dec 2, early Dec 3 high tide (lunar abnormal).

Also,  Dec 7ish is dependent on whether the initial short wave is stronger per the EPS or whether the GEFS trailer into the Plains states prevails. 

In any case this looks to be an interesting two weeks of stratwarm aided early winter opportunities.

Also even though its not in most forecasts, I'll be looking for many flurries in NYC metro Fri afternoon, isolated brief dustings inland from I95.

 

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Thanksgiving prevails... Create new family memories and think about those who cannot be with us.

I think Dec 2-3 will need a thread for first measurable sleet-snow NYC CP with a potential moderate snowstorm I84 corridor with coastal flooding Late Dec 2, early Dec 3 high tide (lunar abnormal).

Also,  Dec 7ish is dependent on whether the initial short wave is stronger per the EPS or whether the GEFS trailer into the Plains states prevails. 

In any case this looks to be an interesting two weeks of stratwarm aided early winter opportunities.

Also even though its not in most forecasts, I'll be looking for many flurries in NYC metro Fri afternoon, isolated brief dustings inland from I95.

 

 

IMO its interesting for the mid week storm that the ensembles of the GFS and Euro are not amped up like the OPS. Also the Euro AI is still southeast with precip barely making it into the Metro as shown below