November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

@WxUSAF would like this:

• Ridging in Alaska
• Ridging in Greenland
• NW flow all the way back to the North Pole
• Stressed polar vortex

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

46 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Oh if only it weren't a nina and a -PDO! These looks are useless...er, right?

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh if only it weren't a nina and a -PDO! These looks are useless...er, right?

It's not impossible to snow in a nina and a -pdo.

I don't understand your thinking of "close the blinds" till we get a Nino.

Is it harder? Sure but definitely not impossible and all weak ninas arent complete duds.

I wouldn't expect a big storm this year but it doesn't have to be a complete dumpster fire also.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's not impossible to snow in a nina and a -pdo.

I don't understand your thinking of "close the blinds" till we get a Nino.

Is it harder? Sure but definitely not impossible and all weak ninas arent complete duds.

I wouldn't expect a big storm this year but it doesn't have to be a complete dumpster fire also.

 

No I'm not close the blinds like in a "dumpster fire" kind of way. Just more in a not expecting something different from what we've seen in a decade kind of way. Like basically the max for this setup (and winter) is advisory-level scenery snow--which is still nice to look at, mind you. I would just love to see a -AO/-NAO pattern in a more favorable regime to finally break the snow drought.

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No I'm not close the blinds like in a "dumpster fire" kind of way. Just more in a not expecting something different from what we've seen in a decade kind of way. Like basically the max for this setup (and winter) is advisory-level scenery snow--which is still nice to look at, mind you. I would just love to see a -AO/-NAO pattern in a more favorable regime to finally break the snow drought.

We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had  them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens.   

[Eskimo Joe]

GEFS has been trending the right way with this first cool shot. Fingers crossed this is a sign of things to come?

 

 

[stormy]

36 minutes ago, frd said:

We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had  them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens.   

Last years enso signal was very similar to what is forecast this winter at -.6

My previous 7 year average snowfall was 15 inches last year. I broke it last winter with 18 inches.

You take what you get, smile and be happy.  I totally agree with you.

[bncho]

I'm starting to thing that this snow system depends a lot on timing. If it happens at say 7PM then temps will likely be too warm except for the upslope areas (around 40+), but if it happens at say 10PM then temps are more like 35... much more conducive for snow

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had  them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens.   

Nah we haven't had the pattern with a less hostile PDO though. The -PDO regime has been a constant the last 10 years. It finally eased up close to positive for a moment last season and lo and behold...we squeezed out more flakes. Not blockbuster by any stretch, but slightly better.

[Maestrobjwa]

I got a real easy approach to tracking this year: If a model shows something that hasn't happened in 10 years...assume it's wrong and toss it 

[Eskimo Joe]

45 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I got a real easy approach to tracking this year: If a model shows something that hasn't happened in 10 years...assume it's wrong and toss it 

Anything outside of HR 60 to 90 just treat with skepticism. 

[SnowenOutThere]

On a less pessimistic note than the past couple posts the GFS shows an amazing early season upslope/cold core lapse rate thingy happening on Monday! Gets parts of WV to one foot

[Chris78]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

I'm starting to thing that this snow system depends a lot on timing. If it happens at say 7PM then temps will likely be too warm except for the upslope areas (around 40+), but if it happens at say 10PM then temps are more like 35... much more conducive for snow

What snow system are you talking about? 

The only thing I see are some good upslope snows in WV and western MD on Monday.

East of there a flurry or sprinkle is possible but I don't think I'd even count on that.

 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

What snow system are you talking about? 

The only thing I see are some good upslope snows in WV and western MD on Monday.

East of there a flurry or sprinkle is possible but I don't think I'd even count on that.

 

talking about if we want any chance of snow east of the appalachians

[NorthArlington101]

50 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

On a less pessimistic note than the past couple posts the GFS shows an amazing early season upslope/cold core lapse rate thingy happening on Monday! Gets parts of WV to one foot

I’m still invested in the flurries, but nice to see a colder long range + a trackable something at Day 15. I’m eager to get back into the sport of tracking, even if nobody should realistically be expecting any snow til December. 

[midatlanticweather]

I know it is ridiculously out there, but I do like the idea of a follow up wave on an arctic front as any chance for the area. Nothing amped will make anything happen unless it is crazy ideal like the old Veteran's Day storm. I like seeing them show up on long ranges, even if it is all fantasy

 

[Ji]

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

where is leesburg on that map? huh...

[bncho]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

now that would stick on the grass until sunrise.

[Daniel Boone]

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

It appears to be focusing strongly on that huge warm pool south of the Aleutians with high pressure centered there. Time will tell if those SST'S are as forecasted and that Ridge sets up predominantly there.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Love the ICON bringing snow showers to coastal South Carolina before us

[SnowenOutThere]

38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Love the ICON bringing snow showers to coastal South Carolina before us

Don’t worry if last years trends hold true it’ll be congrats Bahamas so theyll lose too 

[mappy]

WBAL still mentioning snow for early next week. Nothing accumulating but exciting all the same 

[SnowenOutThere]

Can someone post snow maps for the 6z Euro run? Seems like even UVA might get a dusting from it?

[SnowenOutThere]

Also if I did decide to pay for a weather site which one is the consensus pick?

[arlwx12]

From the latest NWS discussion:

(snip)

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Large scale troughing will persist over the eastern CONUS through
the first half of next week. This troughing will be reinforced by a
powerful cold front Sunday. The amount of available moisture is
somewhat in question. There is the potential for showers or even a
few low-topped gusty thunderstorms, but overall rainfall amounts
look light (0.25" or less).

The bigger story will be the cold airmass in the wake of this front.
Temperatures are likely to fall below freezing west of I-95 amid
northwest breezes by early Monday morning, with 20s expected over
the higher elevations. Wind chills likely dip to near or below
freezing areawide by daybreak Monday, with teens or even single
digits above zero for wind chills on the higher peaks. The chill
will continue during the day Monday as cold air advection continues.
Despite breaks of sun and downsloping west/northwest winds, high
temperatures probably won`t escape the 40s on Monday, and may remain
in the 20s and 30s for the higher elevations. Combined with the
wind, it will probably feel more like the 30s all day (teens/20s for
the higher elevations).

A widespread freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.
This would end the growing season where it remains active along the
I-95 corridor. Similarly cool high temperatures are forecast for
Tuesday, with moderating temperatures by Wednesday.

Although most of the area will remain dry, the first accumulating
upslope/mountain snow event is looking increasingly likely for areas
along and west of the Allegheny Front Sunday night through Tuesday.
It is too soon to speculate on specific amounts, but the potential
is there for the season`s first plowable snow.

(snip)

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Can someone post snow maps for the 6z Euro run? Seems like even UVA might get a dusting from it?

Fine, I'll do it myself 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Also if I did decide to pay for a weather site which one is the consensus pick?

WeatherBell is good for models (although their CFS maps have major issues).