Eskimo Joe Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago @WxUSAF would like this: Ridging in Alaska Ridging in Greenland NW flow all the way back to the North Pole Stressed polar vortex 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 46 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Oh if only it weren't a nina and a -PDO! These looks are useless...er, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh if only it weren't a nina and a -PDO! These looks are useless...er, right? It's not impossible to snow in a nina and a -pdo. I don't understand your thinking of "close the blinds" till we get a Nino. Is it harder? Sure but definitely not impossible and all weak ninas arent complete duds. I wouldn't expect a big storm this year but it doesn't have to be a complete dumpster fire also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Chris78 said: It's not impossible to snow in a nina and a -pdo. I don't understand your thinking of "close the blinds" till we get a Nino. Is it harder? Sure but definitely not impossible and all weak ninas arent complete duds. I wouldn't expect a big storm this year but it doesn't have to be a complete dumpster fire also. No I'm not close the blinds like in a "dumpster fire" kind of way. Just more in a not expecting something different from what we've seen in a decade kind of way. Like basically the max for this setup (and winter) is advisory-level scenery snow--which is still nice to look at, mind you. I would just love to see a -AO/-NAO pattern in a more favorable regime to finally break the snow drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted 18 hours ago Author Share Posted 18 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: No I'm not close the blinds like in a "dumpster fire" kind of way. Just more in a not expecting something different from what we've seen in a decade kind of way. Like basically the max for this setup (and winter) is advisory-level scenery snow--which is still nice to look at, mind you. I would just love to see a -AO/-NAO pattern in a more favorable regime to finally break the snow drought. We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago GEFS has been trending the right way with this first cool shot. Fingers crossed this is a sign of things to come? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 36 minutes ago, frd said: We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens. Last years enso signal was very similar to what is forecast this winter at -.6 My previous 7 year average snowfall was 15 inches last year. I broke it last winter with 18 inches. You take what you get, smile and be happy. I totally agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago I'm starting to thing that this snow system depends a lot on timing. If it happens at say 7PM then temps will likely be too warm except for the upslope areas (around 40+), but if it happens at say 10PM then temps are more like 35... much more conducive for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 hour ago, frd said: We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens. Nah we haven't had the pattern with a less hostile PDO though. The -PDO regime has been a constant the last 10 years. It finally eased up close to positive for a moment last season and lo and behold...we squeezed out more flakes. Not blockbuster by any stretch, but slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago I got a real easy approach to tracking this year: If a model shows something that hasn't happened in 10 years...assume it's wrong and toss it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 45 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I got a real easy approach to tracking this year: If a model shows something that hasn't happened in 10 years...assume it's wrong and toss it Anything outside of HR 60 to 90 just treat with skepticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago On a less pessimistic note than the past couple posts the GFS shows an amazing early season upslope/cold core lapse rate thingy happening on Monday! Gets parts of WV to one foot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 hours ago, bncho said: I'm starting to thing that this snow system depends a lot on timing. If it happens at say 7PM then temps will likely be too warm except for the upslope areas (around 40+), but if it happens at say 10PM then temps are more like 35... much more conducive for snow What snow system are you talking about? The only thing I see are some good upslope snows in WV and western MD on Monday. East of there a flurry or sprinkle is possible but I don't think I'd even count on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What snow system are you talking about? The only thing I see are some good upslope snows in WV and western MD on Monday. East of there a flurry or sprinkle is possible but I don't think I'd even count on that. talking about if we want any chance of snow east of the appalachians 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 50 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: On a less pessimistic note than the past couple posts the GFS shows an amazing early season upslope/cold core lapse rate thingy happening on Monday! Gets parts of WV to one foot I’m still invested in the flurries, but nice to see a colder long range + a trackable something at Day 15. I’m eager to get back into the sport of tracking, even if nobody should realistically be expecting any snow til December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago I know it is ridiculously out there, but I do like the idea of a follow up wave on an arctic front as any chance for the area. Nothing amped will make anything happen unless it is crazy ideal like the old Veteran's Day storm. I like seeing them show up on long ranges, even if it is all fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Ji said: where is leesburg on that map? huh... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 14 minutes ago, Ji said: now that would stick on the grass until sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: It appears to be focusing strongly on that huge warm pool south of the Aleutians with high pressure centered there. Time will tell if those SST'S are as forecasted and that Ridge sets up predominantly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Love the ICON bringing snow showers to coastal South Carolina before us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Love the ICON bringing snow showers to coastal South Carolina before us Don’t worry if last years trends hold true it’ll be congrats Bahamas so theyll lose too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago WBAL still mentioning snow for early next week. Nothing accumulating but exciting all the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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