November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

@WxUSAF would like this:

• Ridging in Alaska
• Ridging in Greenland
• NW flow all the way back to the North Pole
• Stressed polar vortex

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

46 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Oh if only it weren't a nina and a -PDO! These looks are useless...er, right?

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh if only it weren't a nina and a -PDO! These looks are useless...er, right?

It's not impossible to snow in a nina and a -pdo.

I don't understand your thinking of "close the blinds" till we get a Nino.

Is it harder? Sure but definitely not impossible and all weak ninas arent complete duds.

I wouldn't expect a big storm this year but it doesn't have to be a complete dumpster fire also.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's not impossible to snow in a nina and a -pdo.

I don't understand your thinking of "close the blinds" till we get a Nino.

Is it harder? Sure but definitely not impossible and all weak ninas arent complete duds.

I wouldn't expect a big storm this year but it doesn't have to be a complete dumpster fire also.

 

No I'm not close the blinds like in a "dumpster fire" kind of way. Just more in a not expecting something different from what we've seen in a decade kind of way. Like basically the max for this setup (and winter) is advisory-level scenery snow--which is still nice to look at, mind you. I would just love to see a -AO/-NAO pattern in a more favorable regime to finally break the snow drought.

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No I'm not close the blinds like in a "dumpster fire" kind of way. Just more in a not expecting something different from what we've seen in a decade kind of way. Like basically the max for this setup (and winter) is advisory-level scenery snow--which is still nice to look at, mind you. I would just love to see a -AO/-NAO pattern in a more favorable regime to finally break the snow drought.

We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had  them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens.   

[Eskimo Joe]

GEFS has been trending the right way with this first cool shot. Fingers crossed this is a sign of things to come?

 

 

[stormy]

36 minutes ago, frd said:

We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had  them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens.   

Last years enso signal was very similar to what is forecast this winter at -.6

My previous 7 year average snowfall was 15 inches last year. I broke it last winter with 18 inches.

You take what you get, smile and be happy.  I totally agree with you.

[bncho]

I'm starting to thing that this snow system depends a lot on timing. If it happens at say 7PM then temps will likely be too warm except for the upslope areas (around 40+), but if it happens at say 10PM then temps are more like 35... much more conducive for snow

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

We have had that multiple times and still failed. We had  them in a Nina and a Nino. The Pac is really King. Many great mets were humbled when the pattern screamed HECS and nothing happened, not even a SECS. However, lets get the cold first and see what happens.   

Nah we haven't had the pattern with a less hostile PDO though. The -PDO regime has been a constant the last 10 years. It finally eased up close to positive for a moment last season and lo and behold...we squeezed out more flakes. Not blockbuster by any stretch, but slightly better.

[Maestrobjwa]

I got a real easy approach to tracking this year: If a model shows something that hasn't happened in 10 years...assume it's wrong and toss it