November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[H2Otown_WX]

38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z oper GFS's 29th NJ model impacter should not be summarily tossed... 

Not saying it's high confidence - how could I ... But typically the front side wave spaces, while major hemispheric mode changes are underway, are cyclogen active.   

In principle ...the period of time is okay for activation of storm systems.   Way too early to be detailed beyond...

Scooter said NO

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lost 90 lbs down to high school playing weight 234. Hopefully hit 225 by New Year's. Good eating and a honey do list longer than a Mt Mansfield winter.

Prefrontal days are always warmer than normal especially this late in fall.

Nice. Congrats man. 

[klw]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

FAF

The Vermont DMV uses this as a code for a suspension for Failure to pay Fines.

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh Stein 

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1991182664204718283?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh Stein 

https://x.com/growingwisdom/status/1991182664204718283?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Stein is a dork, and Julia Childs was drunk most of the time. 

[weatherwiz]

Euro with the 582dm heights into WV/MD and 576 to the NY/PA borer to kick off December. That would be some impressive warmth ahead of the cold front into the mi-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (unless there happens to be any wedging). 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Euro with the 582dm heights into WV/MD and 576 to the NY/PA borer to kick off December. That would be some impressive warmth ahead of the cold front into the mi-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (unless there happens to be any wedging). 

EPS unleashing some cold 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS unleashing some cold 

Yup...we briefly get a shot of cold air behind the post Thanksgiving time frame and then pup heights right back up ahead of the next system. But hopefully we really do start changing things after that front later in the first week of December. Praying we really do start building heights and ridging into the West so we stop with this building heights ahead of systems, then getting a shot of cold air, only to build heights up as the next trough digging into the west translates east. If we can sustained riding in the west...we won't have to completely worry about that...especially if we can then get some Arctic support on our side.

[brooklynwx99]

really liking the progression on all the ensembles as we head into the first week of Dec

initial equatorward jet extension -> T-day trough establishes cold along with building -EPO/-WPO

trough moves into the N ATL and increases Scandi ridging -> second trough dumps cold into the West and Canada

second jet extension pushes cold east -> N ATL trough strengthens and starts pushing Scandi ridging into the NAO region

[weatherwiz]

Let's really, really hope the PAC plays out and evolves like that. But even if it doesn't...if it can at least evolve to a degree where we can continue to further develop that later in the month...that would be a big change. I also wouldn't mind maintaining a stronger SE ridge...coastal peeps may not want that and of course that could be playing Russian Roulette but that would at least help with an active storm track with ejecting shortwaves from the southwest...then we just hope for a perfect trough axis to our west.

[Typhoon Tip]

I've noted the two pulse -EPO behavior in the ensembles.

The operation Euro is an amplified outlier with the warm-roll back in between those episodes/-EPO bursts.   I'm not inclined to believe it is necessarily correct.

The other aspect I'd keep in mind that the models (all of them) tend to go a bit too amplified in the mid-sized spatial events.   Not sure that dependable bias expresses as coherently at hemispheric scale ... just something to keep an eye on.

[weatherwiz]

We definitely want to watch the progression of the progression of the stratosphere too. 

The good news is, we already have a warming event ongoing and across the Canadian Arctic 

 

If you were to follow this progression on Dr. Lawrence's site, its a longer duration event too with the peak occurring somewhere in the 300 hr time frame

 

This is important (when the peak occurs) because this would likely result in a PV split, which begins to occur towards the end of the run 

Getting a PV split will be critical because the main PV looks like it could end up over Europe, but if it splits, then we could get PV displacement onto our side of the hemisphere. 

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We definitely want to watch the progression of the progression of the stratosphere too. 

The good news is, we already have a warming event ongoing and across the Canadian Arctic 

 

If you were to follow this progression on Dr. Lawrence's site, its a longer duration event too with the peak occurring somewhere in the 300 hr time frame

 

This is important (when the peak occurs) because this would likely result in a PV split, which begins to occur towards the end of the run 

 

Getting a PV split will be critical because the main PV looks like it could end up over Europe, but if it splits, then we could get PV displacement onto our side of the hemisphere. 

I don't like the fact that it isn't (first) emergent in the 10 hpa ...

This appear to be up-welling from a very strong constructive interference at mid and upper level troposphere between Asia and the N. Pacific.

I'm not sure it matters?   ha.  I mean, whether it's a SSW --> down-welling in the canonical sense and total behavior, or... some sort of fantastic ridge resonance that's bulging the disk from the bottom, the end result may end up with the same consequence... You get blocking and jet distributions S of normal PV latitudes ...and that in this case (sometimes it affects/offloads in Europe/Eurasia preferentially) modeled to favor our side of the hemisphere for a cold mass delivery/jet.  

It's an interesting question...  but if you look at the GFS's 10hpa, no clue there's a warming event.  All SSWs in the monitoring history going back to the late 1970s start between 1 and 10hpa, and then down well.   This appears to be a "bulging" event.   Similar to what Kevin lacks on his anniversary nights...

 

[weatherwiz]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't like the fact that it isn't (first) emergent in the 10 hpa ...

This is appear to be up-welling from a very strong constructive interference at mid and upper level troposphere between Asia and the N. Pacific.

I'm not sure it matters?   ha.  I mean, whether it's a SSW --> down-welling in the canonical sense and total behavior, or... some sort of fantastic ridge resonance that's bulging the disk from the bottom, the end result may end up with the same consequence... You get blocking and jet distributions S of normal PV latitudes ...and that in this case (sometimes it affects/offloads in Europe/Eurasia preferentially) modeled to favor our side of the hemisphere for a cold mass delivery/jet.  

It's an interesting question...  but if you look at the GFS's 10hpa, no clue there's a warming event.  All SSWs in the monitoring history going back to the late 1970s start between 1 and 10hpa, and then down well.   This appears to be a "bulging" event.   Similar to what Kevin lacks on his anniversary nights...

 

I thought there was a weak signal up around 10 hpa which strengthened down around 30 hpa and especially 50 hpa? But I may have diagnosed incorrectly 

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I thought there was a weak signal up around 10 hpa which strengthened down around 30 hpa and especially 50 hpa? But I may have diagnosed incorrectly 

the other clue ... if this pattern change, which we're at t-minus 6 or 7 days from actively reconstructing, was preceded and ultimately coupled to a canonical SSW, the latter would have taken place by the first week of the month.   There was nothing...

 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the other clue ... if this pattern change, which we're at t-minus 6 or 7 days from actively reconstructing, was preceded and ultimately coupled to a canonical SSW, the latter would have taken place by the first week of the month.   There was nothing...

 

So essentially, (let's say it is occurring now or in the beginning phases), we probably wouldn't see that troposphere respond probably until late December? 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

So essentially, (let's say it is occurring now or in the beginning phases), we probably wouldn't see that troposphere respond probably until late December? 

Mid December I’d think…