November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[dendrite]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Testing weenies 

Did you like them?

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Most dramatic cloud action of the winter?

Need Tip to describe them. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Need Tip to describe them. 

I’m trying to think back to the last time we had a cloudflare outage and how the following winter ended up. There’s still time for Ray to make some minor adjustments. 

[Lava Rock]

well that was a bit of an annoying outage. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

12z Hrrr is a tease for SWCT with a sunrise surprise tomorrow … Aint happening James 

[NoCORH4L]

Cloudflare running off of Ginx's LG camera flip phone? 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z Hrrr is a tease for SWCT with a sunrise surprise tomorrow … Aint happening James 

Euro has some QPF too. Temps are borderline though. I dunno, been steadily inching north. Maybe higher spots above 400’ or so get something? Interesting to see what happens.

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Im not seeing any snow

Yeah

[Torch Tiger]

No snow at all for a lonnng while.  The new winter norm

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFs are better with the PNA rising, but it’s the GEFS. I don’t understand why everyone is in a rush. We know how these go.

I think it’s because last year was horrific, and once Dec 1 hits the clock starts ticking in every weenie’s head.

If we get to Dec 15 and this pattern is delayed another two weeks with a Grinch in sight, this place will be hell. (I don’t think that’ll happen, but just saying)

36 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z Hrrr is a tease for SWCT with a sunrise surprise tomorrow … Aint happening James 

I just looked. It’s on something, but we’d certainly take lol. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it’s because last year was horrific, and once Dec 1 hits the clock starts ticking in every weenie’s head.

If we get to Dec 15 and this pattern is delayed another two weeks with a Grinch in sight, this place will be hell. (I don’t think that’ll happen, but just saying)

I just looked. It’s on something, but we’d certainly take lol. 

I don’t expect it but if the above happens as you said I’m out until the first 70F dews.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well here's the thing...  Globals overall have not held onto the structure of the oncoming short wave into confluence zone in NYS New England so have been depressed.  6z EC topped in favor of the 06-09z RRSFA, RAP, NAM3K and 12z HRRR.  

I sure hope the 12z/18 HRRR is not that far wrong... it could be too aggressive to the north but I expect a 2-4" stripe somewhere near I80 which would be a little south of the 12z HRRR axis.  Uncertainty of course but we have to make decisions on what we do.

So potentially embarrassing if it fails but this is what I updated locally.

Updating I84 corridor 9AM. Plowing will probably be needed for at least the higher elevations tomorrow morning from northeast PA through nw NJ/se NYS into at least southern CT and possibly Hartford Ashford. Too much short term modeling that is at the leading edge of mesoscale modeling is upping amounts and predicting a decent 5 hour event that will require adjusted traveling times.

 

Entire I84 region from the Poconos across nw NJ, se NYS into ag least the southern two thirds of CT 1AM-9AM Wednesday (tomorrow) morning. A 3-6 hour period of wet snow that likely accumulates 1-4"-especially grass. Valley roads 600 feet or below just wet because of temps just above freezing but accumulations on untreated pavements expected for the hills where the temp will drop to 30, especially 1000 feet or higher. The northern extent of the snow shield is a little uncertain but prepare for slower travel-delays in your early Wednesday morning travel. In my opinion there is an increasing chance of a 2 hour delay for high terrain schools I80 northward. Overall

[weathafella]

Well we’ll be in Chicago for thanksgiving planning to head home beginning 12/3.  That area looks decent for some early action just past thanksgiving.  

[MJO812]

Gfs unloading the Arctic next week

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think it’s because last year was horrific, and once Dec 1 hits the clock starts ticking in every weenie’s head.

If we get to Dec 15 and this pattern is delayed another two weeks with a Grinch in sight, this place will be hell. (I don’t think that’ll happen, but just saying)

I just looked. It’s on something, but we’d certainly take lol. 

12z gfs and 6z euro were well north from earlier runs 

[dryslot]

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies better come through. lol.

Don't bank on it, After the last few winters.

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Testing weenies 

 

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Did you like them?

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Need Tip to describe them. 

Just the tip huh?

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z gfs and 6z euro were well north from earlier runs 

I’m modestly intrigued. 

[WxWatcher007]

45.2° at WXW1 (current location)

27.7° at WXW2 

BDL is -1.0° on the month while SLK is -3.3°

To @WinterWolf’s point, this has been a very nice step down. A slightly BN month in SNE with a brief mild up the last week of November and then possible cold right after is about as much as you can ask for. 

[dryslot]

Cloudflare a little cloudy today.

[CoastalWx]

 Nice interior NoP GFS run. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

It’s 11/18. Who cares if the cold dumps mostly out west for a week or two toward Dec? Pack usually starts settling in here 12/10-15 so it’s nbd to me until then. Anything between now and then typically melts away at some point anyway. 

 

[WinterWolf]

50 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs unloading the Arctic next week

 

Wasn’t next week supposed to be warm…65+?