November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[brooklynwx99]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The good stuff doesn’t happen until well after Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving week is your classic preload with the cold dump into the west and Plains and pumps up the ridge out east. No one saying 75 to 80, but it’s not gonna be cold or anything like that at all. Will average above normal. 

my guess is that the pattern becomes better for most after the 5th

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

my guess is that the pattern becomes better for most after the 5th

Yep agree

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Is it really? I get it it’s an OP run he was referencing, but at 250 hrs out that EPS isn’t all that reliable either. Especially the way it’s been scoring. 

 

I agree with you on the above…I mean if we can trust the ensembles at 10 plus days out. That ain’t no given either. 

When I say way different, getting a 500 MB pattern correct versus getting a solution like a low passing just south of you to give you snow, is way different. It is much easier to show a ridge over the East Coast 11 days out on an Ensemble versus getting specific details on an area of low pressure. It’s really apples to oranges. That’s why I mean way different.

[WinterWolf]

29 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Tops I saw on cocorahs was 8.9", between Ashland and PQI.  The Fort Kent pic looks more like 6-7.

Ya think? Maybe?  I was looking at the back of the sled-behind the seat on the tunnel…that looked more like 4” to me.  Gotta be careful because that sleds seat has a slight bulge towards the middle..so that may make it look like more snow there.  But nonetheless, it was a substantial event up there. 

[weatherwiz]

Overall (at least 12z) the not much difference between the Euro/GFS ensembles outside of strength of key features and placement of the main anomaly centers but that is a warm look overall but can't dismiss any wedge potential like Scott said. But I don't really like the way the pattern is configured overall to elicit some big magical changes going through the first week of December. I think we'll certainly see some colder periods, like we've seen this month, but they are brief and more transient. There are multiple things we're fighting 

1) Persistent evolution of lower heights and deep troughing across the West

2) A stout subtropical ridge which is flexed into the Southeast as those troughs amplify and dig into the west

3) Even with a -NAO look at times, which helps to bring in that colder air (for a brief period) you always have to watch for connecting heights across the east. 

Maybe things break down a bit moving through the first week of December but we're going to want to see something in real time (like in 7-10 days) that is in place that will not trigger it...not the it will change because it looks better at D10 ordeal

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When I say way different, getting a 500 MB pattern correct versus getting a solution like a low passing just south of you to give you snow, is way different. It is much easier to show a ridge over the East Coast 11 days out versus getting specific details on an area of low pressure. It’s really apples to oranges. That’s why I mean way different.

I understood that part…and as I said, I agree. But these ensembles haven’t been anything to brag about either…so I guess that was more my point.  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Overall (at least 12z) the not much difference between the Euro/GFS ensembles outside of strength of key features and placement of the main anomaly centers but that is a warm look overall but can't dismiss any wedge potential like Scott said. But I don't really like the way the pattern is configured overall to elicit some big magical changes going through the first week of December. I think we'll certainly see some colder periods, like we've seen this month, but they are brief and more transient. There are multiple things we're fighting 

1) Persistent evolution of lower heights and deep troughing across the West

2) A stout subtropical ridge which is flexed into the Southeast as those troughs amplify and dig into the west

3) Even with a -NAO look at times, which helps to bring in that colder air (for a brief period) you always have to watch for connecting heights across the east. 

Maybe things break down a bit moving through the first week of December but we're going to want to see something in real time (like in 7-10 days) that is in place that will not trigger it...not the it will change because it looks better at D10 ordeal

 

I think you worry too much.  

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep agree

that EPO isn't a waste, though. always good to have Arctic air nearby so you get a quick flip and cold source region

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I understood that part…and as I said, I agree. But these ensembles haven’t been anything to brag about either…so I guess that was more my point.  

Yeah, that far out ensembles can be wrong, but I think that applies especially getting details like low pressure locations, etc. versus a 500 MB pattern.

 

However, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with accepting that it could be mild next week. This is your classic EPO dump that always goes out west and in the plains first, and that implies a ridge over the east. So you also have Climo on your side along with the ensemble prediction. I don’t think that is unreasonable.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I think you worry too much.  

It's not worry, it's analysis, assessment, and questioning. There is way too much emphasis and focus on extended range EPS signals and not enough focusing on real time observations (current state/pattern) and evolution of the short term pattern to look for those signals which may begin driving the pattern. Patterns just don't magically change and don't magically change. There are typically day-to-day nuisances which will determine how the pattern unfolds and behaves. For example, let's say forecast models were showing a drastic change say D6 or D7 (even D5)...we would be able to see in the next day or two those pieces which will be responsible for the change and determine in the short term the validity of this change instead of chasing D10 EPS means.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that EPO isn't a waste, though. always good to have Arctic air nearby so you get a quick flip and cold source region

I would just like to see the PV more towards Hudson Bay to spread the cold a little bit further east. I think there might be a better chance for more eastern Canada cold after the 5th like you said.

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya think? Maybe?  I was looking at the back of the sled-behind the seat on the tunnel…that looked more like 4” to me.  Gotta be careful because that sleds seat has a slight bulge towards the middle..so that may make it look like more snow there.  But nonetheless, it was a substantial event up there. 

Fort Kent snow probably settled some.

...Aroostook County...
3 WNW Blaine                 10.3 in   0636 AM 11/17   Trained Spotter
2 SSW Easton                 9.0 in    0445 AM 11/17   NWS Employee
2 SSE Castle Hill            8.9 in    0700 AM 11/17   COCORAHS
3 NW Monticello              7.8 in    0507 AM 11/17   Trained Spotter
1 WNW Ashland                7.7 in    0708 AM 11/17
1 NW Presque Isle            7.5 in    0803 AM 11/17   NWS Employee
4 SW Stockholm               7.0 in    0830 AM 11/17   Public
2 ENE Presque Isle           7.0 in    0830 AM 11/17   Public
1 WSW Madawaska              6.8 in    0454 AM 11/17   Trained Spotter
Fort Kent 1 SE               6.5 in    0700 AM 11/17   COOP
Caribou NWS                  6.0 in    0700 AM 11/17   COOP
1 SE Fort Kent               6.0 in    0715 AM 11/17   Trained Spotter
Perham                       6.0 in    0800 AM 11/17   Public
4 NNE Caribou                5.8 in    0715 AM 11/17   NWS Employee
2 NE Fort Fairfield          5.0 in    0601 AM 11/17   NWS Employee
1 NNW Macwahoc               5.0 in    0745 AM 11/17   Trained Spotter
4 NW Caribou                 3.8 in    0630 AM 11/17   Trained Spotter
4 WSW Fort Fairfield         3.5 in    0715 AM 11/17   Trained Spotter
Houlton                      3.3 in    0836 PM 11/16   Trained Spotter
1 WNW Caribou                3.2 in    0919 PM 11/16   NWS Employee
Frenchville                  3.0 in    0500 PM 11/16   Public
Van Buren 1 NNE              3.0 in    0630 AM 11/17   COOP
4 SE Washburn                2.0 in    0500 PM 11/16   Trained Spotter

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

1/Kevin

Can’t divide by zero

[Hazey]

With CC putting early snows further out of reach, the focus should be on the holidays. See if we can get snow for Christmas. Might still have a shot there.

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, Hazey said:

With CC putting early snows further out of reach, the focus should be on the holidays. See if we can get snow for Christmas. Might still have a shot there.

This is funny. 

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, Hazey said:

With CC putting early snows further out of reach, the focus should be on the holidays. See if we can get snow for Christmas. Might still have a shot there.

I guess 11, and 12, 18, and 19 and 20 , and 21 doesn’t count? 

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, Hazey said:

With CC putting early snows further out of reach, the focus should be on the holidays. See if we can get snow for Christmas. Might still have a shot there.

He’s lurking…not Stein…not Phil…not even Wolfie’s estranged daughter Greta…

He knows what we desire most and is hell bent on making sure it stays bottled up in Siberia. 

His heart’s an empty hole…

[MJO812]

Woof

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Woof

Would not surprise me if 12/20-1/20 is really the period where it happens and 12/1-12/20 ends up normal or not overly cold.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Would not surprise me if 12/20-1/20 is really the period where it happens and 12/1-12/20 ends up normal or not overly cold.

Quite possible 

[MJO812]

Weeklies are awesome.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Would not surprise me if 12/20-1/20 is really the period where it happens and 12/1-12/20 ends up normal or not overly cold.

Well there’s usually the lag right..so that would be plausible. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Well there’s usually the lag right..so that would be plausible. 

Also the PNA is likely to go + in that period, at least historically I think 95% of -EPO/-PNA E QBO Decembers had a +PNA January

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Definitely a winter feel today with that wind. 

[ORH_wxman]

Been a lot of -NAO showing up even on the warmer ensemble looks. That’s a good sign though because when the PAC finally relaxes a little that will help us a lot. You can see it in some of the OP runs heading into early December….the weeklies show what happens when you keep the NAO look with a better PAC. 
 

The PAC will prob be a bit stubborn for a couple weeks so I wouldn't really get too anxious before the first week of December. 

[CoastalWx]

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Been a lot of -NAO showing up even on the warmer ensemble looks. That’s a good sign though because when the PAC finally relaxes a little that will help us a lot. You can see it in some of the OP runs heading into early December….the weeklies show what happens when you keep the NAO look with a better PAC. 
 

The PAC will prob be a bit stubborn for a couple weeks so I wouldn't really get too anxious before the first week of December. 

Yeah that’s been my target. Late in, or after first week. Some are having trouble accepting that. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that’s been my target. Late in, or after first week. Some are having trouble accepting that. 

I don’t think that is necessarily the case.…anything before that is early anyways.  I just don’t trust ensembles(even long wave patterns) past  8-10 days, so still feel the pattern is not set. But glad to see the weeklies looking good (rather have it look good than not), and yes, it doesn’t mean anything unless we get some nuances to go our way.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t think that is necessarily the case.…anything before that is early anyways.  I just don’t trust ensembles(even long wave patterns) past  8-10 days, so still feel the pattern is not set. But glad to see the weeklies looking good (rather have it look good than not), and yes, it doesn’t mean anything unless we get some nuances to go our way.  

So you’re saying it could be earlier? If anything you lean this occurring later than models have. Especially when you need a cooperating Pacific.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So you’re saying it could be earlier? If anything you lean this occurring later than models have. Especially when you need a cooperating Pacific.

No, I didn’t mean snow chances earlier…but temps-the thanksgiving week was looking much warmer a few days ago, than it is now.  It’s cooling as we approach. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

No, I didn’t mean snow chances earlier…but temps-the thanksgiving week was looking much warmer a few days ago, than it is now.  It’s cooling as we approach. 

Meh let it torch. Give everyone some good weather to travel.