November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[dendrite]

Deerorgy MN lol

I think that’s near Elk Bulge ND

[Bryan63]

About to move back to North Carolina to get snow at this point.

[WinterWolf]

Stepping down nicely….it’s coming this year. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hairy back doors all facing up. Wild times in Tolland

Happy Vets Day?

[ineedsnow]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

About time? It’s 11/11

ive been waiting all summer 

[Chrisrotary12]

12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

10" of snow on the Gulf coast last year..I barely got that all of January. Like, enough....just enough.  I swear to god, if it happens this season I'm going to absolutely go off of the deep end.

You went way off the deep end at least 3 years ago. Need a deeper pool. 

[CoastalWx]

Ray is right. Kind of a meh cold shot outside today’s highs. But highs will be solidly BN next week or so. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe it was born on the FL gulf coast last year and all it knows is blizzards.

Ray is being triggered. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray is right. Kind of a meh cold shot outside today’s highs. But highs will be solidly BN next week or so. 

I wouldn’t mind some more days where I can get stuff done outdoors without putting on multiple layers. 

[dendrite]

If anyone wants to relive real cold in the east here’s some TWC  Leon

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Ray is being triggered. 

 

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I wouldn’t mind some more days where I can get stuff done outdoors without putting on multiple layers. 

Correct on both accounts.

I haven't even started raking...def need some decent days with light wind.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray is right. Kind of a meh cold shot outside today’s highs. But highs will be solidly BN next week or so. 

With nothing but snow showers to show until the Turkey Day torch 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

With nothing but snow showers to show until the Turkey Day torch 

Oh like the last torch you said we were having? 

[CoastalWx]

We are due for weather excitement. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Oh like the last torch you said we were having? 

Zero torch coming…same crap every year. Laughable. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We are due for weather excitement. 

For sure.  We had a ton of excitement for a long while. Now it’s been quiet for a while. We will turn the tables this winter…you don’t dodge everything forever. Our time is near. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Weather pep talks! 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Weather pep talks! 

Or weather fake news…take your pick? 

[jbenedet]

Zzzzzzz

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weather pep talks! 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Or weather fake news…take your pick? 

Heavy heavy snows 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even the cold shots...not just snow. I see all of these headlines about how Deerorgy, Minnesota dipped to -24 with -60 WCs, and 20s to the Gulf coast....meanwhile, back at the ranch....27 and P Cloudy in Methuen-

Fwiw - the models have been attenuating the cold air mass all along, showing rising thickness en masse within the trough for days of guidance cycles. 

That may not be much consolation reading that. I know. 

This whole trough and cold snap ( primarily west of our longitude) was originally modeled by the GFS about 8 or 9 days ago to generate an impressive coastal with implications from N-PA to interior SNE. By D6 the guidance went away from that idea. The trough morphed into more of a meridian type with EC parallel flow.

In fact, over these last 6 days there's been very good model performance overall for poorly consolidated low turning up through PA into eastern Ontario.  Can't say the Euro or the GGEM were much different - they seemed to get on that same page a while ago, too.

From my perspective, the models are having trouble with the idiosyncratic -NAO ...  gee what's new.   But back some 2.5 weeks ago the long range numerical outlooks showed a collapsing index in the NAO.  That actually verified ... the index numbers are in fact negative and have been.  What's fascinating is that synoptic layout is not representing that exertion ... sometimes that happens, though rarer.  As it were, the cyclone still turned left prior to 90 W and ended up NY state - in other words, despite -2 SD NAO in the derivatives, the former behavior was really more nuetral NAO like.   It all shows how difficult the NAO is to work with.   The PNA was left to it's one devices ... and the trough amplifies too early/maximizes west. 

That idea of commitment to a coastal made more sense relative to the numerology back whence.  This "could" have been the season's first synoptic run in.  +1 SD PNA with a failing western exerted -NAO?  If I were seeing that index outlook from 12 days ago I'd be just as inclined to watching the coastal storm routes for eventual operational emergence.  Just the way it goes. You know, we've often reminded folks that all these teleconnectors, air, sea and combinations therein and et al, they are never 1::1.  There's always exceptions.  Just be glad it happened now, prior to thanks giggedy, when there's still 4 some odd month's worth of other scenarios for the atmosphere to anti-correlate new and exciting ways to tune up winter enthusiast's dignities like a chef with a steak hammer... 

Anyway, failed humor aside ... it helps to have some explanation.  Not to be high handed or anything but ... heh, I honestly walked away from this whole synoptic era pretty early in the game, as I could see this unfolding like 5 days ago.   I've seen this before when the indexes may derive positive or negative field values despite the behavior not being perfectly aligned - it's rare ... but if there is going to be a time of the year where that is more likely to anti-correlate, its at this time of year and sometimes in April

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Heavy heavy snows 

Expectations in check, but Average snows is fine with me…average winter incoming imo.  And that’s just fine.  

[dendrite]

Flurries have commenced 

31.4°

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We are due for weather excitement. 

2025 may be the most boring calendar year of our lives....Maybe 1988 or 1990? 1988 had the huge heat in the summer at least...1990 had a nice ice storm in March. This year has had absolute-dick. I think it's the most boring calendar years of our lives.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw - the models have been attenuating the cold air mass all along, showing rising thickness en masse within the trough for days of guidance cycles. 

That may not be much consolation reading that. I know. 

This whole trough and cold snap ( primarily west of our longitude) was originally modeled by the GFS about 8 or 9 days ago to generate an impressive coastal with implications from N-PA to interior SNE. By D6 the guidance went away from that idea. The trough morphed into more of a meridian type with EC parallel flow.

In fact, over these last 6 days there's been very good model performance overall for poorly consolidated low turning up through PA into eastern Ontario.  Can't say the Euro or the GGEM were much different - they seemed to get on that same page a while ago, too.

From my perspective, the models are having trouble with the idiosyncratic -NAO ...  gee what's new.   But back some 2.5 weeks ago the long range numerical outlooks showed a collapsing index in the NAO.  That actually verified ... the index numbers are in fact negative and have been.  What's fascinating is that synoptic layout is not representing that exertion ... sometimes that happens, though rarer.  As it were, the cyclone still turned left prior to 90 W and ended up NY state - in other words, despite -2 SD NAO in the derivatives, the former behavior was really more nuetral NAO like.   It all shows how difficult the NAO is to work with.   The PNA was left to it's one devices ... and the trough amplifies too early/maximizes west. 

That idea of commitment to a coastal made more sense relative to the numerology back whence.  This "could have" been the season's first synoptic run in.  +1 SD PNA with a failing western exerted -NAO?  If I were seeing that index outlook from 12 days ago I'd be just as inclined to watching the coastal storm routes for eventual operational emergence.  Just the way it goes. You know, we've often reminded folks that all these teleconnectors, air, sea and combinations therein and et al, they are never 1::1.  There's always exceptions.  Just be glad it happened now, prior to thanks giggedy, when there's still 4 some odd month's worth of other scenarios for the atmosphere to anti-correlate new and exciting ways to tune up winter enthusiast's dignities like a chef with a steak hammer... 

Anyway, failed humor aside ... it helps to have some explanation.  Not to be high handed or anything but ... heh, I honestly walked away from this whole synoptic era pretty early in the game, as I could see this unfolding like 5 days ago.   I've seen this before when the indexes may derive positive or negative field values despite the behavior not being perfectly aligned - it's rare ... but if there is going to be a time of the year where that is more likely to anti-correlate, its at this time of year and sometimes in April

I was never invested because I was balls-deep in the outlook until yesterday. So, yea...better now for that reason, and climo wise.

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You mean spending an inordinate amount of time of an internet forum investing emotionlly into something of which you have no control, while commismerating with other similarly ill-minded individuals isn't on the list? $hit, I'm in the wrong field.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2025 may be the most boring calendar year of our lives....Maybe 1988 or 1990? 1988 had the huge heat in the summer at least...1990 had a nice ice storm in March. This year has had absolute-dick. I think it's the most boring calendar years of our lives.

Completely agree. The only thing I had that was exciting was the 6.5” of rain in like 3 hours on July 10. From an anomaly standpoint that was impressive. But yeah, doesn’t move the weenie like other events. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Completely agree. The only thing I had that was exciting was the 6.5” of rain in like 3 hours on July 10. From an anomaly standpoint that was impressive. But yeah, doesn’t move the weenie like other events. 

I had zilch-zero, ma nature being singy with dinero.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

First flakes of the season in Greenfield!