Event Discussion-OBS uncertain tracking thread for possible moderate impact event 8A Thu-8A Fri 10/30-31. Mainly 1-3" rains, G 45-55 MPH-mainly coast, and high prob of at least minor coastal flooding - Thursday afternoon high tide cycle.

[psv88]

0.03. The rich get richer!

[wdrag]

Max G NJ coast via NJ climate sites. 52 MPH at Little Egg Harbor near ACY, so far.

Will post CoCoRaHs totals tomorrow morning 9A.

Flightaware misery map for NYC airports significant. 

STP's from OKX and PHI look reasonable.

[wdrag]

Lakehurst (KNEL) 51 MPH right now at about 1031A.  Coming north imo

[MANDA]

Doing good in my area thus far.  Received .48" as of 8:00 a.m.  Had some periods of heavier rain predawn hours.  Winds gusty - estimated 20-25 mph in gusts.

[Brian5671]

Both NAMS are now wet for the entire area with a general 1-2 inches of rain

[FPizz]

1.20"

[winterwx21]

1.14" here so far. We should get another inch this afternoon to bring the total to over 2 inches -- finally a big soaking that will put in a good dent in the drought. 

[wdrag]

13 minutes ago, FPizz said:

1.20"

really...  very nice. Maybe you head for 2.5".  Thinking some spots in our forum I95 westward 3-3.5" in 9 hours soon. 

[wdrag]

Noting power outages increasing PA-NJ .. over 7000 in NJ and some of it seems high terrain, esp ne PA.

[wdrag]

1/2"/hr n-s stripe near PHL with lightning now. not sure where this will end up but should rock a bit this aft-eve in our area...even e LI later this eve. 

[steve392]

Been getting some good heavy rains all morning.  

[Sundog]

It's really windy

[Brian5671]

leaves flying all around with these winds....

[Stormlover74]

Big gust just came through. Easily 40+

[MANDA]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

leaves flying all around with these winds....

Yeah.  Trees really getting stripped around here today.  Peak color is over that's for sure.

[FPizz]

38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

really...  very nice. Maybe you head for 2.5".  Thinking some spots in our forum I95 westward 3-3.5" in 9 hours soon. 

I just checked the cocorahs gauge I have and am a little lower than the station gauge.  I'm at 1.09" on the cocorahs.

[wdrag]

Just now, FPizz said:

I just checked the cocorahs gauge I have and am a little lower than the station gauge.  I'm at 1.09" on the cocorahs.

Thanks for your update and that matches the radar estimates. 

Brielle on the North shore of Ocean County NJ now G 52 Mph. winds increasing northward in NJ.

[wdrag]

JFK now 50 MPH gusts. 

[Brian5671]

surprised no wind advisories

[MANDA]

Have to believe there will be some Melissa enhanced rainfall for eastern New England up into down east Maine.

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60w.html

[Dark Star]

Models looking pretty good in general.  They had at least one bullseye over northeastern PA, and that looks to be panning out...

[gravitylover]

.17 with the occasional gust around 20. It's finally raining harder and the wind is up. It's a nice afternoon to go for a Jebwalk but the flying branches are sketchy.

[wdrag]

Apparent storm damage on TV in the Bronx.  1200 meters out on Staten Island.  now is the time for 45 MPH+ wind gusts n our area...next 5 hours; except later e Li. 

[wdrag]

KFRG: Farmingdale, Republic Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [46kt, 24m/s]

KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, 44 kt

[TJW014]

Peak gust of 52 mph so far. Beaches taking another pounding

[wdrag]

NWS PHI recently upgraded the advisory to a Coastal Flood Warning for Ocean County-moderate flooding.

[SI Mailman]

Not having fun delivering the mail today. Wind is insane. Over .8 inches in the rain gauge so far with a lot more to come

[wdrag]

saw Staten Island NYS mesonet 0.90. At least one major NYC TV station is behind the reality

[ForestHillWx]

Heaviest rain of the day out this way. 

[Snowlover11]

Like a blizzard of leafs driving on 87 a bit ago.  Roads are hazardous with all the leafs on the ground.