November 2025 OBS Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a mild day with highs reaching the lower 60s. A weak cold front could touch off a few scattered showers. It will turn increasingly windy following the frontal passage. Winds will likely gust past 50 mph for several hours.

Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s Thursday and Friday before milder conditions return for the weekend.

Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. Lows would fall well into the 30s in New York City while highs struggle to reach the middle and upper 40s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +17.81 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.343 today. 

 

[Sundog]

Not that I believe it (yet) but the Euro had NYC itself below freezing next Tuesday morning. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

15 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Fox are there as well.  Deer have been spotted on the North Shore Tower golf course. 

First Sunken Meadow, now North Shore Tower.  Deer must like the golf courses because they've seen the aim of the people at those places and know they're perfectly safe.

[wdrag]

00z/5 CMCE and EPS offer a widespread light snow cover to the I84 corridor around 11/10.  Could be this amplifying 5H trough crossing the east coast or the following Alberta clipper around 11/12-13.  

Also, I think at least one or 2 more wind advisory events between 11/10-11/16.

[bluewave]

Very fast Pacific flow continues with storms racing through the Great Lakes. One of the storms next week will pull in a cooler airmass behind it lasting for several days. Doesn’t look too cold for this time of year as NYC may not be able to make it to freezing yet.

Then a warm up after this as we rebound back to 60s and perhaps near 70° mid month. The Pacific Jet is so strong that ridge out West next week will eventually get pushed into the East after that. So a back and forth windy pattern. 

Most of North America will experience a milder Pacific influence. Snowcover for North America is starting the season at record low levels for this time of year. 
 

 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very fast Pacific flow continues with storms racing through the Great Lakes. One of the storms next week will pull in a cooler airmass behind it lasting for several days. Doesn’t look too cold for this time of year as NYC may not be able to make it to freezing yet.

Then a warm up after this as we rebound back to 60s and perhaps near 70° mid month. The Pacific Jet is so strong that ridge out West next week will eventually get pushed into the East after that. So a back and forth windy pattern. 

So most of North America will experience a milder Pacific influence.
 

 

 

Looks very warm for November

[Sundog]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm for November

"Looks" key word. Some people were calling for a record breaking hot October from "looking" at long range modeling. 

It also looked like October was going to be very dry and I would up with over 5 inches of precip. 

[Sundog]

Fall color is actually very good right now on the Clearview Expressway. it sounds late but it always peaks during the first week of November here. 

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm for November

It'll be slightly AN due to back tland forth pattern. 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Fall color is actually very good right now on the Clearview Expressway. it sounds late but it always peaks during the first week of November here. 

Maples really popped in color along 25A. 

[Krs4Lfe]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm for November

Yeah, aside from the cool shot next week, looks like we become very warm through mid month, and then transient cool and warm for rest of November. Once again, akin to November 2024 and November 2023, lack of snow cover and cold across Canada and northern tier is making it harder for late fall and early winter to be cold and wintry for most of us. There have been plenty of years where we didn't have cold and winter weather in the early season, but up north or out west, they did. Past 2 years have been pretty much void of late fall/early winter cold and snow across most of CONUS and Canada. I'd expect the models to correct a bit warmer due to this. 

[SACRUS]

 

66 / 22 here.  Winds will pick up soon.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 79 (2022)
NYC: 78 (1961)
LGA: 75 (2022)
JFK: 75 (1975)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (1933)
NYC: 23 (1879)
LGA: 32 (1951)
JFK: 32 (1965)


Historical:
 

1894 - The famous Election Day snowstorm occurred in Connecticut. As much as a foot of wet snow fell, and the snow and high winds caused great damage to wires and trees. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI. (David Ludlum)

 

1894: A significant snowstorm impacted New England on November 5th through 6th. It formed off the New Jersey coast on the 5th and passed east of Connecticut with rapidly increasing heavy rain, snow, and high winds. The heavy snow and high winds caused significant damage to trees and brought down telegraph poles by the hundreds. As a result, all southern New England's telegraph and telephone services were crippled, and fallen poles and trees delayed railroad trains.

1961 - Strong Santa Ana winds fanned the flames of the Bel Air and Brentwood fires in southern California destroying many homes. At 10 PM the Los Angeles Civic Center reported a temperature of 74 degrees along with a dew point of 5 degrees. On the 6th, Burbank reported a relative humidity of three percent. (The Weather Channel)

1977 - A slow moving storm produced five to nine inch rains across northern Georgia causing the Toccoa Dam to burst. As the earthen dam collapsed the waters rushed through the Toccoa Falls Bible College killing three persons in the dorms. Thirty-eight persons perished at a trailer park along the stream. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Low pressure off the California coast produced stormy weather in the southwestern U.S. Flash flooding stranded 8000 persons in the Death Valley National Park of southern California. Thunder- storms over southern Nevada produced dime size hail and wind gusts to 68 mph around Las Vegas. Unseasonably mild weather in the northeastern U.S. was replaced with snow and gale force winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful low pressure system produced high winds from the Great Plains to New England, and produced heavy snow in northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. Winds gusted to 64 mph at Knoxville TN, and reached 80 mph at Pleasant Valley VT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1988: An F1 tornado touched down south of Altoona near Hollidaysburg. Several homes were damaged with roofs torn off and broken windows, numerous trees were toppled, and garages and other outbuildings were destroyed.

1989 - Temperatures warmed into the 80s across much of Texas. Highs of 86 degrees at Abilene, Fort Worth and San Angelo were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

2002 - Severe thunderstorms moved across southeastern Alabama and the Florida panhandle, producing wind damage and several tornadoes. A tornado struck the Alabama town of Abbeville killing 2 people and injuring 25 (Associated Press).

 

2017: A classic Tornado Debris Signature (TBS) was observed in Washington County, Indiana.

[Stormlover74]

Made it to 68

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Made it to 68

67 here, now clouds took over.

[winterwx21]

I was just out in the garden and picked some peppers and pole lima beans. Still producing because we haven't had a freeze here yet. It's gonna be a close call tomorrow night. If not tomorrow night, the garden will definitely come to end end with the cold shot early next week. We'll be going below freezing Monday night. 

[donsutherland1]

As of 4 pm, the high temperature in New York City had reached 66°. That was a full 2 standard deviations above the NBM forecast from 11z, a remarkable bust. Newark was even warmer with a high of 70°.

However, this warmth will be short-lived, as a cold front is now crossing the region. In doing so, it could trigger some widely scattered showers. Most areas will remain dry.

The first half of tonight will be very windy. Winds will likely gust past 50 mph for several hours. Afterward, winds will slowly diminish.

Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s tomorrow and middle and upper 50s on Friday. The weekend will be mild with Saturday being the warmest day. Highs on Saturday will likely reach the lower and perhaps middle 60s. Newark could again approach or reach 70°.

A strong cold front will then bring this season's coldest temperatures so far early next week. Lows would fall well into the 30s in New York City while highs struggle to reach the middle and upper 40s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +26.97 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.140 today.