November 2025 OBS Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a mild day with highs reaching the lower 60s. A weak cold front could touch off a few scattered showers. It will turn increasingly windy following the frontal passage. Winds will likely gust past 50 mph for several hours.

Highs will then fall back to the lower and middle 50s Thursday and Friday before milder conditions return for the weekend.

Afterward, there is the potential for a short but sharp cold shot, possibly preceded by a chilly rain. Lows would fall well into the 30s in New York City while highs struggle to reach the middle and upper 40s.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +17.81 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.343 today. 

 

[Sundog]

Not that I believe it (yet) but the Euro had NYC itself below freezing next Tuesday morning. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

15 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

Fox are there as well.  Deer have been spotted on the North Shore Tower golf course. 

First Sunken Meadow, now North Shore Tower.  Deer must like the golf courses because they've seen the aim of the people at those places and know they're perfectly safe.

[wdrag]

00z/5 CMCE and EPS offer a widespread light snow cover to the I84 corridor around 11/10.  Could be this amplifying 5H trough crossing the east coast or the following Alberta clipper around 11/12-13.  

Also, I think at least one or 2 more wind advisory events between 11/10-11/16.

[bluewave]

Very fast Pacific flow continues with storms racing through the Great Lakes. One of the storms next week will pull in a cooler airmass behind it lasting for several days. Doesn’t look too cold for this time of year as NYC may not be able to make it to freezing yet.

Then a warm up after this as we rebound back to 60s and perhaps near 70° mid month. The Pacific Jet is so strong that ridge out West next week will eventually get pushed into the East after that. So a back and forth windy pattern. 

Most of North America will experience a milder Pacific influence. Snowcover for North America is starting the season at record low levels for this time of year. 
 

 

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very fast Pacific flow continues with storms racing through the Great Lakes. One of the storms next week will pull in a cooler airmass behind it lasting for several days. Doesn’t look too cold for this time of year as NYC may not be able to make it to freezing yet.

Then a warm up after this as we rebound back to 60s and perhaps near 70° mid month. The Pacific Jet is so strong that ridge out West next week will eventually get pushed into the East after that. So a back and forth windy pattern. 

So most of North America will experience a milder Pacific influence.
 

 

 

Looks very warm for November

[Sundog]

10 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm for November

"Looks" key word. Some people were calling for a record breaking hot October from "looking" at long range modeling. 

It also looked like October was going to be very dry and I would up with over 5 inches of precip. 

[Sundog]

Fall color is actually very good right now on the Clearview Expressway. it sounds late but it always peaks during the first week of November here. 

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm for November

It'll be slightly AN due to back tland forth pattern. 

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

Fall color is actually very good right now on the Clearview Expressway. it sounds late but it always peaks during the first week of November here. 

Maples really popped in color along 25A. 

[Krs4Lfe]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Looks very warm for November

Yeah, aside from the cool shot next week, looks like we become very warm through mid month, and then transient cool and warm for rest of November. Once again, akin to November 2024 and November 2023, lack of snow cover and cold across Canada and northern tier is making it harder for late fall and early winter to be cold and wintry for most of us. There have been plenty of years where we didn't have cold and winter weather in the early season, but up north or out west, they did. Past 2 years have been pretty much void of late fall/early winter cold and snow across most of CONUS and Canada. I'd expect the models to correct a bit warmer due to this.