OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[USCG RS]

7 hours ago, Jefflaw77 said:

Why is Fox News comparing this to Sandy? Are they insane? 
 

 

[Sundog]

And hold on, global models like the Euro use the USA's balloon data? Why was the Euro paywalled then if they were using taxpayer funded initialization data?

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

And hold on, global models like the Euro use the USA's balloon data? Why was the Euro paywalled then if they were using taxpayer funded initialization data?

good question - do we share with other countries models our data ? how does that all work ?

[Rmine1]

East of William Floyd will do very well rain wise. Rest of LI, you can see the precip shield erode as it climbs N. 

[doncat]

48 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Quite windy out here already but not expecting much rain today. Hrrr and nam are under .25" west of 95 through tonight

Would just be a continuation of every event underperforming, if it does turn out that way. Been going on for awhile now .

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, doncat said:

Would just be a continuation of every event underperforming, if it does turn out that way. Been going on for awhile now .

East of the city will do fine and the shore will get hit hard 

[wdrag]

fwiw: gust up to 50 MPH Little Egg Harbor  NJ.  3" limbs reported broken at 1055A vicinity Orange NJ per mPing. Unsure of the mPing report   Follow NWS... coastal situation appears on previous NWS track. 

[wdrag]

Everywhere under the rain shield per OKX/DIX/JFK/EWR radars its raining with up to 0.2" past 3 hours in se NJ. mPing would break helpful next 36 hours. 

[TJW014]

IBSP peak gust of 54 mph. Granted that sensor is about 40 feet above ground. 

[SnowGoose69]

3km NAM looks to be only 12 or 06Z run that has any idea based on current radar but even it looks like it may not be aggressive enough with the NW push today

[MJO812]

Very windy here

[psv88]

Raining now and windy. Going to be a miserable 24 hours. 

[MANDA]

Received .16" rainfall 8am yesterday to 8am today.  Periods of light rain, mist and drizzle began early yesterday afternoon and persisted up until the hours around mid-night.

Currently just cloudy.  Winds light.  Perhaps 10-15 mph at times.

This event always was and will be a bigger deal at the coast.  Not a joke down there.  Going to be moderate to locally major coastal flooding,  beach erosion etc.  Winds gusting to 60 mph+ ocean front seem likely.  My expectations for rainfall up this way have come down.  Was thinking along the lines of 1 to 1.5".  That seems quite unlikely at this point.  Main event is NJ / LI coast with long duration onshore flow, strong winds and coastal flooding / erosion.  Wind issues along the coast as well with power outages / tree damage.   This will be a big deal for coastal locations.  Would not underestimate effects for those locations.

Inland west of I-95 don't envision wind gusts much over 30 mph.

[Sundog]

The rain has now reached @LibertyBell

The event has officially begun

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The rain has now reached @LibertyBell

The event has officially begun

No it hasn't lol.  To be fair, it was raining here Friday night and Saturday morning pretty heavily.  So that's when the event begun.  Then it stopped lol.  I'm expecting the rain to start up again sometime after 2 pm lol.

[wdrag]

Sometimes the straight laced Drag has to laugh. Good one. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

No it hasn't lol.  To be fair, it was raining here Friday night and Saturday morning pretty heavily.  So that's when the event begun.  Then it stopped lol.  I'm expecting the rain to start up again sometime after 2 pm lol.

it's quite windy though and with the leaves rustling it sounds like it's raining

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Jefflaw77 said:

Why is Fox News comparing this to Sandy? Are they insane? 
 

a much better comparison might be a much reduced version of Halloween 1991 aka the Perfect Storm.  Especially if this is much more about winds and not about rain.

To be fair, Sandy was also more about winds rather than rain, but at least we got over an inch of rain with Sandy.  With Halloween 1991 it was less than half an inch.

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No it hasn't lol.  To be fair, it was raining here Friday night and Saturday morning pretty heavily.  So that's when the event begun.  Then it stopped lol.  I'm expecting the rain to start up again sometime after 2 pm lol.

It looks like it has just reached you on radar unless you're farther from the water than I thought 

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Everywhere under the rain shield per OKX/DIX/JFK/EWR radars its raining with up to 0.2" past 3 hours in se NJ. mPing would break helpful next 36 hours. 

it's not raining here Walt, but it's very windy.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

It looks like it has just reached you on radar unless you're farther from the water than I thought 

about 3 miles

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Sometimes the straight laced Drag has to laugh. Good one. 

Love this !

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

East of the city will do fine and the shore will get hit hard 

to be fair, noreasters, like hurricanes, are usually graded on windspeeds and duration not rainfall or snowfall amounts.

It's why October 1991 ranks so highly.

 

[psv88]

Looks like a snowstorm radar. Let’s do this again in January 

[uofmiami]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Raining now and windy. Going to be a miserable 24 hours. 

I’d say 48hrs, at least Tuesday winds start to subside and hopefully we get some sun before the day ends. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, psv88 said:

Looks like a snowstorm radar. Let’s do this again in January 

Yes, like January 2016, Boxing Day, PD2, January 1996 and February 1983 the big ones usually take time for the precip to move in but once it does it goes hard and heavy for a long time.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, uofmiami said:

I’d say 48hrs, at least Tuesday winds start to subside and hopefully we get some sun before the day ends. 

very much like December 1992

[dseagull]

3 hours til high tide on my part of barnegat bay.   Lower roads are already all caving quickly.  This may overperform.   Im getting consistent gusts to 45 now in this band.  If this intensity is consistent until tomorrow's high around 4PM, we may have significant flooding damage in the 2nd flood zone tier for our town.  This would affect nearly 400 homes that were not raised after Sandy.  

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

3 hours til high tide on my part of barnegat bay.   Lower roads are already all caving quickly.  This may overperform.   Im getting consistent gusts to 45 now in this band.  If this intensity is consistent until tomorrow's high around 4PM, we may have significant flooding damage in the 2nd flood zone tier for our town.  This would affect nearly 400 homes that were not raised after Sandy.  

Hopefully, the flooding won't be so bad that it would affect the unraised homes. 

[dseagull]

They are "professionals," but I still try to keep people like this at arm's length.   Hey, it's a free country, but I cant promise my response will be timely if they find themselves in a precarious/dangerous situation.