OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Cyg said:

Still in the firehose coming off the ocean here in Brick. This has got to be one of the longest duration rain events I can remember. A spotter nearby recorded 3.10in so far.

I wish this thing would go out to sea already

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

2.82”…

you'll get to 3 by tomorrow

[donsutherland1]

Three-day rainfall totals for the New York City area:

[qg_omega]

2.68 storm total

[qg_omega]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

you don't live in this area, it definitely wasn't run of the mill.

 

Lived next to and on Jamaica Bay for 30 years

In terms of big time coastal impacts, this was run of the mill compared to actual Nor’easters we had in the past.

[uofmiami]

2.79” in Syosset & 1.95” in Muttontown.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Lived next to and on Jamaica Bay for 30 years

In terms of big time coastal impacts, this was run of the mill compared to actual Nor’easters we had in the past.

It doesn't matter if it's below the predictions, the fact is we had water all the way into parking lots and on Central Avenue in Far Rockaway and major coastal flooding all the way to Lindenhurst.  I've only seen this in the largest noreasters we had in the 1990s.  One woman also died in Manhattan (she got hit in the head with a solar panel that came flying off during the high winds) and thousands of power outages here on Long Island as well as many trees down.  60 MPH winds which are pretty strong for a noreaster.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Three-day rainfall totals for the New York City area:

Well we didn't hit 2 inches of rain here because it was drizzly all night but the winds stayed up.

 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It doesn't matter if it's below the predictions, the fact is we had water all the way into parking lots and on Central Avenue in Far Rockaway and major coastal flooding all the way to Lindenhurst.  I've only seen this in the largest noreasters we had in the 1990s

Still a very moderate event for most of us as the two weaker lows didn’t consolidate into one stronger event like earlier model runs forecast. A few spots like the GSB had a low end major event. But that is still below the really big nor’easters of the 90s which had extensive higher level major across nearly all our stations. Plus widespread 75+ and 80+ wind gusts with more extensive power outages. 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still a very moderate event for most of us as the two weaker lows didn’t consolidate into one stronger event like earlier model runs forecast. A few spots like the GSB had a low end major event. But that is still below the really big nor’easters of the 90s which had extensive higher level major across nearly all our stations. Plus widespread 75+ and 80+ wind gusts with more extensive power outages. 

The winds definitely weren't as strong as the historic noreasters, which surprised me even more with all the trees down and the power outages and how high the water got.  In terms of how high the water got, it reminded me of Irene.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The winds definitely weren't as strong as the historic noreasters, which surprised me even more with all the trees down and the power outages and how high the water got.  In terms of how high the water got, it reminded me of Irene.

Most spots were several feet below Irene as that was nearly identical to the tide levels during December 1992. This was a pretty moderate nor’easter as they go for most spots. Plus we avoided the highest astronomical tides by several days. 

[Brian5671]

Solid rainfall event for just about everyone here...puts a nice dent in the dry conditions/drought.  Looks like some more rain potential going forward as well unlike last year where it was bone dry into mid November.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Solid rainfall event for just about everyone here...puts a nice dent in the dry conditions/drought.  Looks like some more rain potential going forward as well unlike last year where it was bone dry into mid November.

no prolonged rains, just brief frontal passages, like one in about a week.  Nice and sunny for several days starting tomorrow.

[qg_omega]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It doesn't matter if it's below the predictions, the fact is we had water all the way into parking lots and on Central Avenue in Far Rockaway and major coastal flooding all the way to Lindenhurst.  I've only seen this in the largest noreasters we had in the 1990s.  One woman also died in Manhattan (she got hit in the head with a solar panel that came flying off during the high winds) and thousands of power outages here on Long Island as well as many trees down.  60 MPH winds which are pretty strong for a noreaster.

 

Simply not true and not factual but ok

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

no prolonged rains, just brief frontal passages, like one in about a week.  Nice and sunny for several days starting tomorrow.

Yeah we will get warmups ahead of each low.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Simply not true and not factual but ok

https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/noreaster-coastal-flooding-long-island-high-tide/

 

As of 7:50 p.m., PSEG Long Island reported 2,052 customers were still without power. Orange & Rockland County reported just 204 customers were still out, after more than 4,000 were Monday morning. Jersey Central Power & Light had 1,523 customers out. PSE&G New Jersey had 250 out, down from over 2,300. 

New York City's Office of Emergency Management said more than 100 trees have fallen citywide, and the Department of Buildings said a woman in Brooklyn was killed when the wind ripped a solar panel off the roof of a carport. 

The storm also forced the cancellation of the city's annual Columbus Day Parade in Manhattan, a more than 80-year-old tradition. 

[FPizz]

.31" total.  

[wkd]

16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

.31" total.  

 

You got drenched.  0.08" here in the Three Bridges area. Thats my Sunday plus Monday total.

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, wkd said:

 

You got drenched.  0.08" here in the Three Bridges area. Thats my Sunday plus Monday total.

I was hovering around .15 then last evening a random tiny yellow cell went through so I had a brief downpour.  

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Most spots were several feet below Irene as that was nearly identical to the tide levels during December 1992. This was a pretty moderate nor’easter as they go for most spots. Plus we avoided the highest astronomical tides by several days. 

The duration also has to be factored in.  I simply can't tolerate a three day rainstorm.  When we really start controlling the weather I would like our first noreaster to happen in December and our last noreaster to happen in March, nothing before and nothing after, Chris.  My back, shoulders and neck has been hurting for the past three nights and only started getting better this morning (my shoulders are still sore though.) I turned my space heater up to 83 degrees this morning which helped alleviate the pain and soreness.

I can tolerate this in the winter (especially with snow which is far better than rain and does not cause this kind of pain.) Not in October.

 

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

The duration also has to be factored in.  I simply can't tolerate a three day rainstorm.  When we really start controlling the weather I would like our first noreaster to happen in December and our last noreaster to happen in March, nothing before and nothing after, Chris.  My back, shoulders and neck has been hurting for the past three nights and only started getting better this morning (my shoulders are still sore though.) I turned my space heater up to 83 degrees this morning which helped alleviate the pain and soreness.

I can tolerate this in the winter (especially with snow which is far better than rain and does not cause this kind of pain.) Not in October.

 

Nor’easters have been few and far between in recent years. This was our first one in quite some time. It’s the only time all year that we had NE gusts over 45 mph at place like LGA. All the other days with winds gusts over 45 came from a more westerly component. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Nor’easters have been few and far between in recent years. This was our first one in quite some time. It’s the only time all year that we had NE gusts over 45 mph at place like LGA. All the other days with winds gusts over 45 came from a more westerly component. 

JFK had even higher winds didn't they? I saw some reports of 60 mph winds on Long Island

[weathermedic]

Finished with 1.03 inches at my station

[guinness77]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK had even higher winds didn't they? I saw some reports of 60 mph winds on Long Island

According to NWS, Moses had a wind gust of 60 early Monday morning and Eaton’s Neck had a 57mph gust around the same time but most of the strongest gusts were in the 40-50mph range, even the beaches. JFK’s was 44mph 

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/286-2025/PNSOKX/74b10c34b8e31e4cc95546e8eacf7578

 

still gusting in the 25-30mph range by me, but they are getting fewer and further between as the morning progresses. 

[Dark Star]

19 hours ago, MANDA said:

I think it is safe to say this storm went as advertised for coastal NJ and Long Island in terms of wind gusts, power outages, coastal flooding and beach erosion.  Rainfall varied from west to east and no totals really out of hand.

I don’t quite get the number of inland power outages as this was pretty much run of the mill in my area.  Rain with wind gusts of 30-35 mph should not be knocking out power.  Guess trees still in full leaf part of the problem?  Not like the ground was saturated so don’t quite get it.   Coastal NJ as expected took the brunt of this.  Some impressive videos from along the NJ shore.

I don't agree with "as advertised". Yes, it was a Nor'Easter, with all the usual conditions as you stated.  But it was not nearly as intense as advertised.  We can nit pick every last stat.  Again, that is not to downplay the results, but it could have been much worse.  The duration was the main player, which increased flooding and beach erosion...

[Dark Star]

14 hours ago, dseagull said:

Duration under gradient.   Thankfully, neap tides.  Its bad, but ive been here for many decades, my entire life.   I still havd visual tide guages from 40 years ago.  Id love to blame my areas back bay flooding on sea level rise, but thats not the case.   There have been tremendous man-made changes to the inlet and surrounding areas that are almost certainly responsible.   

 

To each their own.  

It may be very difficult to define how much extra damage is caused by the sea level rise.  What astonishes me, is that the 6 to 10 inches in sea level rise over the last 100 years is not uniform.  I think most of us originally learned that sea level is uniform, and all bodies of water, including landlocked ones, seek to reach sea level.  So a lot would depend on local topography and man made containment.  I'm sure the west coast, with it's pronounced sea bottom drop off, has much different impacts on flooding than the shallow east coast sea bed.  First we woud have to explore the generalalities of coastlines, then focus on specific local impacts the sea level rise would have on flooding and beach erosion.  

[wdrag]

0.37 at my station in Wantage of far nw NJ but the CoCoRaHs 3 day reports and NYS Mesonet show the extent of 1.5-3" that covered, in my estimation about 60-65% of our subforum area with amounts ranging from over 4" in Brick NJ to less than 0.4" parts of western NJ. Also added color coded amounts for the northeast USA, showing the focus of biggest amounts se MA-Cape Cod.

Overall, sizable moderate impact, even where amounts less than 1" where intermittent power outages occurred (brief eddy transfer [Richardson #] taking down relative dead wood).  Interior eddy downward momentum transfer likely due to fairly strong easterly flow at the top of the boundary layer--always difficult to predict where these spots will occur.

If you wish, check back on the WPC 5 day outlook... added below. Actually a little shy up by I84-SNE and I do think this was a one or two year recurrence interval for parts of the coast. ESPECIALLY October NON-Tropical at neap tide.   Others chime in with factual info. 

Please add on OKX and PHI summaries when they arrive.  Thank you.

[LibertyBell]

24 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

According to NWS, Moses had a wind gust of 60 early Monday morning and Eaton’s Neck had a 57mph gust around the same time but most of the strongest gusts were in the 40-50mph range, even the beaches. JFK’s was 44mph 

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/286-2025/PNSOKX/74b10c34b8e31e4cc95546e8eacf7578

 

still gusting in the 25-30mph range by me, but they are getting fewer and further between as the morning progresses. 

Thanks, my house heat kicked on this morning for the second time this month.  I think the temperatures are dropping because of the cold wind.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

0.37 at my station in Wantage of far nw NJ but the CoCoRaHs 3 day reports and NYS Mesonet show the extent of 1.5-3" that covered, in my estimation about 60-65% of our subforum area with amounts ranging from over 4" in Brick NJ to less than 0.4" parts of western NJ. Also added color coded amounts for the northeast USA, showing the focus of biggest amounts se MA-Cape Cod.

Overall, sizable moderate impact, even where amounts less than 1" where intermittent power outages occurred (brief eddy transfer [Richardson #] taking down relative dead wood).  Interior eddy downward momentum transfer likely due to fairly strong easterly flow at the top of the boundary layer--always difficult to predict where these spots will occur.

If you wish, check back on the WPC 5 day outlook... added below. Actually a little shy up by I84-SNE and I do think this was a one or two year recurrence interval for parts of the coast. ESPECIALLY October NON-Tropical at neap tide.   Others chime in with factual info. 

Please add on OKX and PHI summaries when they arrive.  Thank you.

Walt on the western edge of that map, is that 0.56 near Lehighton, PA?

[MANDA]

Received an additional .11" rainfall 8am Monday to 8am today.  Three day event total .7".