October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

I have fond memories of Veterans Day 1987.   I start my tracking around this time.  Rare, but it can snow. I was at Univ. of MD in the bullseye.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Have to love this +PNA/-NAO.. it's a colder pattern if it were later in the year. 

And a corresponding trough in the Mid Atlantic a few days later.. the ensemble mean is nothing like the OP

[CAPE]

33 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I have fond memories of Veterans Day 1987.   I start my tracking around this time.  Rare, but it can snow. I was at Univ. of MD in the bullseye.

That map isnt even close over this way. Might have been an inch or so. Consider the source. 

[Weather Will]

52 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That map isnt even close over this way. Might have been an inch or so. Consider the source. 

Here you go....-both maps were accurate for me. Took me hours to drive between College Park and Greenbelt. Cars abandoned everywhere.  It snowed 3-4 inches an hour with drifts over 2 feet.  And it was not forecasted. Mom was freaking out since there were no cell phones back then...

National Weather Service

 

@NWS

 

#OTD in 1987, a snowstorm hit the Washington, D.C. area, with up to 17" of snow and stranding cars for nearly 24 hours. The event led to the development of the Washington Metropolitan Area Snow Plan to facilitate preparedness and response. https://weather.gov/lwx/winter_DC-Winters #NWS150

 

November 11, 1987: The Veteran's Day Storm will not be forgotten by many Washington travelers. Almost a foot (11.5 inches) fell at National Airport. Prince Georges County, MD was hard hit with up to 13 inches of snow falling in a short amount of time. It caught motorists off guard and stranded cars on the Capitol Beltway. There were so many cars that snow plows could not get through to open the clogged arteries. Cars littered the roadway for more than 24 hours. The event precipitated the development of the Washington Metropolitan Area Snow Plan to facilitate preparedness and response to future storms.

This storm struck before the days of lightning detection networks and Doppler weather radar. When thunderstorms began dumping heavy snow over the Fredericksburg VA, forecasters had no idea. The storm moved northeast across the southern Metropolitan area (Prince Georges County). It was not until the fast accumulating snow hit Camp Springs, where at the time the Weather Forecast Office was located, did forecasters realize what was happening.

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Here you go....-both maps were accurate for me. Took me hours to drive between College Park and Greenbelt. Cars abandoned everywhere.  It snowed 3-4 inches an hour with drifts over 2 feet.  And it was not forecasted. Mom was freaking out since there were no cell phones back then...

National Weather Service

 

@NWS

 

#OTD in 1987, a snowstorm hit the Washington, D.C. area, with up to 17" of snow and stranding cars for nearly 24 hours. The event led to the development of the Washington Metropolitan Area Snow Plan to facilitate preparedness and response. https://weather.gov/lwx/winter_DC-Winters #NWS150

 

November 11, 1987: The Veteran's Day Storm will not be forgotten by many Washington travelers. Almost a foot (11.5 inches) fell at National Airport. Prince Georges County, MD was hard hit with up to 13 inches of snow falling in a short amount of time. It caught motorists off guard and stranded cars on the Capitol Beltway. There were so many cars that snow plows could not get through to open the clogged arteries. Cars littered the roadway for more than 24 hours. The event precipitated the development of the Washington Metropolitan Area Snow Plan to facilitate preparedness and response to future storms.

This storm struck before the days of lightning detection networks and Doppler weather radar. When thunderstorms began dumping heavy snow over the Fredericksburg VA, forecasters had no idea. The storm moved northeast across the southern Metropolitan area (Prince Georges County). It was not until the fast accumulating snow hit Camp Springs, where at the time the Weather Forecast Office was located, did forecasters realize what was happening.

That was a very localized heavy snow event. The ol' upper level low surprise. That map there is closer to reality than the one I ridiculed in the previous post. LOL 6-10"? NO. Was maybe an inch or 2 here. It simply didn't do anything for most of the event and by the time it shifted over this way it rapidly weakened.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Looks like Halloween is going to be cool/cold this year. In the 2000s, we've had some very warm Halloweens

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Looks like Halloween is going to be cool/cold this year. In the 2000s, we've had some very warm Halloweens

Cool. Just let the 31st be dry.

[Kmlwx]

0z Euro in the long range had Sandy Jr-esque 500mb look...

[winter_warlock]

On 10/14/2025 at 6:42 PM, Weather Will said:

I have fond memories of Veterans Day 1987.   I start my tracking around this time.  Rare, but it can snow. I was at Univ. of MD in the bullseye.

 That map has me in 10-14 range but I remember getting about 5 inches

[Eskimo Joe]

Frontal passage Sunday evening looks impressive. 

[EstorilM]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Frontal passage Sunday evening looks impressive. 

Agreed - hardly any discussion about it. I guess we got burned on the last one though. 

[Kmlwx]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Frontal passage Sunday evening looks impressive. 

It has my eye for sure - if a nice low pressure can be in the vicinity - fun things can happen even outside of peak heating. And honestly....I think peak heating becomes a lot less important this time of year and with a dynamic system. 

[soadforecasterx]

Take with a grain of salt but.... So nice to see a cold front passage then a storm explode in the area. 12z Icon just shows what can happen this winter. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

50 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Agreed - hardly any discussion about it.

Because it could abruptly collapse tomorrow.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Because it could abruptly collapse tomorrow.

A 5F temp drop followed by a change in the winds from SW to W?  I'm tracking it...stay vigilant.  

[midatlanticweather]

Euro is much more interesting Sunday/Monday for rain and some windy showers. Pretty consistent about a bit more than just a quick passing front with some showers. Hope it is correct. 

 

[stormy]

The ECM    AI  models give my area .30" - .40"  4 - 8 Sunday evening.

The ECM deterministic is way over-hyped according to the WPC  at .90".

[AdamHLG]

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Because it could abruptly collapse tomorrow.

Too soon.  It will collapse Saturday afternoon after 5 pages of discussion about it.

[TSSN+]

2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Euro is much more interesting Sunday/Monday for rain and some windy showers. Pretty consistent about a bit more than just a quick passing front with some showers. Hope it is correct. 

 

Nope this is when the euro is wrong. When gfs shows something and euro doesn’t it’s a no and when euro shows it and gfs doesn’t it’s also a no lol. 

[midatlanticweather]

Maybe some more freezes?