October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

are we still forecasted to have an above normal october?

No. The long-duration block should provide just enough cool weather to result in a modest cool anomaly for October.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

are we still forecasted to have an above normal october?

Most spots should finish warmer than average but the cooler spots like LGA, BDR, and NYC should finish below.

October departures through the 23rd

EWR….+2.5

NYC…..+1.4

JFK……+1.8

LGA……+0.8

HPN……+2.9

ISP……..+3.3

BDR…..+0.4

New Haven….+3.8

New Brunswick…+2.3

[psv88]

Beautiful day. Going to take the boat out for one final spin and then winterize

[MJO812]

Big noreaster disappearing on the models. Flow is getting faster on the models.

[Snowlover11]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big noreaster disappearing on the models. Flow is getting faster on the models.

Shocker

[NEG NAO]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big noreaster disappearing on the models. Flow is getting faster on the models.

Guess you are hugging the worst model in the long range -the GFS - the Canadian disagrees with you

[Birds~69]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big noreaster disappearing on the models. Flow is getting faster on the models.

Since it wouldn't be snow no one really cares. More like a "oh well", shoulder shrug and continue the day...

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Since it wouldn't be snow no one really cares. More like a "oh well", shoulder shrug and continue the day...

one thing for certain is - it would be foolish to start a storm  thread at this point there are many possible outcomes still on the table ranging from basically nothing to that trough coming around and the timing just right and it grabs the hurricane and throws it into the mid-atlantic and or northeast coast and we are dealing with a catastrophic situation for coastal residents especially.........

[NEG NAO]

I just did an AI google search regarding the American Weather models and this Gov't shut down - any comments ? That 12Z GFS run might not be correct ???

AI Overview

 

 

As of the October 2025 government shutdown, American weather models are not getting full data due to cuts to federal weather programs, staffing shortages, and the disruption of key data streams

. This has led to concerns about the accuracy of weather forecasts, particularly during the ongoing hurricane season. 

Key reasons for the data shortfalls:

• Government Shutdown The latest federal government shutdown, beginning October 1, 2025, has halted "non-essential" operations, which affects weather forecasting and data distribution. While critical functions like watches and warnings from the National Weather Service (NWS) continue, many other activities, such as research, computer model upgrades, and certain data streams, have been impacted.
• Staffing Reductions Deep cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier in 2025, implemented by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), have resulted in significant staff losses. Some NWS offices were already critically understaffed, with some meteorologists being laid off.
• Weather Balloon Launches Suspended Some NWS offices have suspended or reduced their daily weather balloon launches due to these staffing shortages. This eliminates crucial, real-time "sounding" data that is vital for forecasting severe weather, winter storms, and overall model accuracy.
• Loss of Defense Satellite Data A separate issue earlier in 2025 involved the Department of Defense (DoD) temporarily cutting off access to data from its Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Although this decision was later reversed after concerns were raised by forecasters, it created a period where hurricane models were running with reduced data. 

 

Impact on forecasts

The combination of these factors has raised alarm among meteorologists and researchers, who worry about the degradation of forecast accuracy. Potential consequences include: 

• Increased uncertainty and inconsistency in model runs.
• Weaker forecasting of severe weather events like tornadoes and thunderstorms.
• More difficulty tracking winter storms and identifying their precise transitions from snow to ice or rain.
• Reduced accuracy in hurricane intensity forecasts. 

 

What is still operating?

Despite the disruptions, essential weather services are still functioning:

• National Weather Service Operations: The NWS is deemed "essential" and will continue to issue critical watches and warnings to protect life and property.
• Daily Forecasts: The production of daily forecasts and outlooks continues.
• Satellite Data: While the Defense Meteorological Satellite data was temporarily at risk, data from other sources, including other weather satellites, is still being used. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[Sundog]

27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I just did an AI google search regarding the American Weather models and this Gov't shut down - any comments ? That 12Z GFS run might not be correct ???

AI Overview

 

 

As of the October 2025 government shutdown, American weather models are not getting full data due to cuts to federal weather programs, staffing shortages, and the disruption of key data streams

. This has led to concerns about the accuracy of weather forecasts, particularly during the ongoing hurricane season. 

Key reasons for the data shortfalls:

• Government Shutdown The latest federal government shutdown, beginning October 1, 2025, has halted "non-essential" operations, which affects weather forecasting and data distribution. While critical functions like watches and warnings from the National Weather Service (NWS) continue, many other activities, such as research, computer model upgrades, and certain data streams, have been impacted.
• Staffing Reductions Deep cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier in 2025, implemented by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), have resulted in significant staff losses. Some NWS offices were already critically understaffed, with some meteorologists being laid off.
• Weather Balloon Launches Suspended Some NWS offices have suspended or reduced their daily weather balloon launches due to these staffing shortages. This eliminates crucial, real-time "sounding" data that is vital for forecasting severe weather, winter storms, and overall model accuracy.
• Loss of Defense Satellite Data A separate issue earlier in 2025 involved the Department of Defense (DoD) temporarily cutting off access to data from its Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Although this decision was later reversed after concerns were raised by forecasters, it created a period where hurricane models were running with reduced data. 

 

Impact on forecasts

The combination of these factors has raised alarm among meteorologists and researchers, who worry about the degradation of forecast accuracy. Potential consequences include: 

• Increased uncertainty and inconsistency in model runs.
• Weaker forecasting of severe weather events like tornadoes and thunderstorms.
• More difficulty tracking winter storms and identifying their precise transitions from snow to ice or rain.
• Reduced accuracy in hurricane intensity forecasts. 

 

What is still operating?

Despite the disruptions, essential weather services are still functioning:

• National Weather Service Operations: The NWS is deemed "essential" and will continue to issue critical watches and warnings to protect life and property.
• Daily Forecasts: The production of daily forecasts and outlooks continues.
• Satellite Data: While the Defense Meteorological Satellite data was temporarily at risk, data from other sources, including other weather satellites, is still being used. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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What do all the other models do? The Euro? Canadian? UKMET? ICON? JMA? KMA? 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What do all the other models do? The Euro? Canadian? UKMET? ICON? JMA? KMA? 

12zEuro AI and CMC have a coastal

[Sundog]

BTW @NEG NAO I also asked ChatGPT to break down the weather data network weather models ingest and to give me a percentage of the data the missed balloons represent. 

It did an extensive breakdown which is a lot to post, but the missing balloons represent between 0.01% to 0.028% of weather model data. 

I also researched the typical daily missed balloon launches worldwide for any reason, and that amounted to an average daily model ingestion data gap of between 0.097% to 0.24%.  This is for balloon launches specifically. 

In other words the sky isn't falling. 

 

[bluewave]

18 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Mr Warmth speaks…:)

If we could find a way to replicate the cooler high temperature patterns that we have been getting in May recently at other times of the year, then we would be onto something.

 Islip , NY
Period of record: 1963-09-05 through 2025-10-23DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

5/1	49 in 2016	52 in 1978	53 in 2019
5/2	51 in 1995	53 in 1988	53 in 1975
5/3	49 in 1985	53 in 2016	53 in 1986
5/4	47 in 1987	51 in 2016	54 in 1978+
5/5	44 in 1978	46 in 1987	53 in 2016
5/6	50 in 1978	52 in 2016	52 in 1967
5/7	44 in 1967	50 in 2022	52 in 1965
5/8	53 in 1971	54 in 1992	54 in 1989+
5/9	49 in 2020	49 in 1972	50 in 1977
5/10	52 in 1989	54 in 2024	55 in 1995+
5/11	54 in 1998	54 in 1989	55 in 1995+
5/12	48 in 2010	51 in 2008	55 in 1966
5/13	51 in 2019	51 in 2017	51 in 2002
5/14	52 in 2019	57 in 2006	57 in 1984+
5/15	53 in 1978	55 in 1973	56 in 1967
5/16	53 in 1984	53 in 1978	54 in 1996
5/17	56 in 1978	57 in 1994	58 in 1966
5/18	49 in 2007	53 in 2002	56 in 1968
5/19	51 in 1976	53 in 1994	55 in 1993
5/20	51 in 2000	54 in 2005	55 in 2008+
5/21	49 in 1990	54 in 2000	56 in 2025
5/22	53 in 2025	54 in 2003	57 in 2000
5/23	54 in 2003	54 in 1982	57 in 1973
5/24	56 in 1982	57 in 2003	57 in 1969
5/25	49 in 1967	51 in 2013	51 in 2005
5/26	52 in 1967	53 in 2003	57 in 1973
5/27	56 in 1974	57 in 1973	58 in 1983+
5/28	60 in 2014	60 in 2009	60 in 1996+
5/29	51 in 2021	58 in 2017	60 in 1996+
5/30	52 in 2021	60 in 2017	61 in 1965
5/31	55 in 1984	61 in 1967	63 in 1992

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

61 / 38 breezy at times today.  More clouds than before.  Looks like a nice fall weekend.  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2001)
NYC: 79 (2001)
LGA:  80 (2001)
JFK: 74 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 28 (1969)
NYC: 31 (1969)
LGA: 30 (1969)
JFK: 32 (1969)

Historical:

 

1785 - A four day rain swelled the Merrimack River in New Hampshire and Massachusetts to the greatest height of record causing extensive damage to bridges and mills. (David Ludlum)

1878 - A hurricane produced widespread damage across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. At Philadelphia PA, the hurricane was the worst of record. (David Ludlum)

 

1878: The Gale of 1878 was an intense Category 2 hurricane that was active between October 18 and October 25. It caused extensive damage from Cuba to New England. Believed to be the strongest storm to hit the Washington - Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851.

1937 - A snow squall in Buffalo NY tied up traffic in six inches of slush. (David Ludlum)

1947 - The Bar Harbor holocaust occurred in Maine when forest fires consumed homes and a medical research institute. The fires claimed 17 lives, and caused thirty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1951 - Sacramento, CA, reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record for October. (The Weather Channel)

1969 - Unseasonably cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Lows of 10 degrees at Concord, NH, and 6 degrees at Albany NY established October records. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Snow fell across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight, with five inches reported at Poplar Lake MN and Gunflint Trail MN. Thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding in south central Arizona, with street flooding reported around Las Vegas NV. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 50 mph downed some trees and power lines in western Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure centered produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with six inches reported at Ironwood MI. Wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at State College PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains around Lake Tahoe, with 21 inches reported at Donner Summit. Thunderstorms in northern California produced 3.36 inches of rain at Redding to establish a 24 hour record for October, and bring their rainfall total for the month to a record 5.11 inches. Chiefly "Indian Summer" type weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s. Record highs included 74 degrees at International Falls MN, and 86 degrees at Yankton SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Hurricane Wilma reached the U.S. coastline near Everglades City in Florida with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. The hurricane accelerated across south Florida and the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area, exiting the coast later the same day. There were 10 fatalities in Florida, and nearly 6 million people lost power, the most widespread power outage in Florida history. Preliminary estimates of insured losses in Florida were over $6 billion, while uninsured losses were over $12 billion.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

What do all the other models do? The Euro? Canadian? UKMET? ICON? JMA? KMA? 

We may never know for sure but the loss of weather balloon data is probably having some effect on the model performance.
 

https://theconversation.com/typhoon-leaves-flooded-alaska-villages-facing-a-storm-recovery-far-tougher-than-most-americans-will-ever-experience-267423

But as the storm approached Alaska, everything went sideways. 

The weather model forecasts changed, reflecting a faster-moving storm, and Halong shifted to a very unusual track, moving between Saint Lawrence Island and the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta coast.

 

Unlike Merbok, which was very well forecast by the global models, this one’s final track and intensity weren’t clear until the storm was within 36 hours of crossing into Alaska waters. That’s too late for evacuations in many places.

Did the loss of weather balloon data canceled in 2025 affect the forecast?

That’s a question for future research, but here’s what we know for sure: There have not been any upper-air weather balloon observations at Saint Paul Island in the Bering Sea since late August or at Kotzebue since February. Bethel and Cold Bay are limited to one per day instead of two. At Nome, there were no weather balloons for two full days as the storm was moving toward the Bering Sea.

Did any of this cause the forecast to be off? We don’t know because we don’t have the data, but it seems likely that that had some effect on the model performance.

 

 

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

BTW @NEG NAO I also asked ChatGPT to break down the weather data network weather models ingest and to give me a percentage of the data the missed balloons represent. 

It did an extensive breakdown which is a lot to post, but the missing balloons represent between 0.01% to 0.028% of weather model data. 

I also researched the typical daily missed balloon launches worldwide for any reason, and that amounted to an average daily model ingestion data gap of between 0.097% to 0.24%.  This is for balloon launches specifically. 

In other words the sky isn't falling. 

 

We do know that more real time data should result in better model forecast outcomes.  However 0.01% to 0.028% is pretty low.  I would guess we had a lot less in the 1970s and 1980s?

[bluewave]

Each of the models for next week have a different solution. The two upper lows and the hurricane are all in different positions at day 5. Plus the strong block to the north. So we are getting the windshield wiper effect with a new solution every run. There is even a 3rd upper low now showing up later in the forecast period dropping down from Canada to complicate matters. 
 

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Each of the models for next week have a different solution. The two upper lows and the hurricane are all in different positions at day 5. Plus the strong block to the north. So we are getting the windshield wiper effect with a new solution every run. There is even a 3rd upper low now showing up later in the forecast period dropping down from Canada to complicate matters. 
 

Yeah very complex setup. The Canadian has a lot more entrainment from Melissa, which would yield a much more significant system for us. 

No clue how any of this will evolve yet

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah very complex setup. The Canadian has a lot more entrainment from Melissa, which would yield a much more significant system for us. 

No clue how any of this will evolve yet

If I had to draw up a set of maps now, would probably just use the EPS mean from days 3-7 to leave enough wiggle room for changes in later model runs.

[sussexcountyobs]

Just started raining lightly. 48.7°

[psv88]

61 today. 47 now. 
 

beautiful last cruise on the boat. Until next year…

[sussexcountyobs]

Light shower only lasted about 10 minutes. 

48.2°

[donsutherland1]

An AO-/NAO-/PNA+ blocking regime is in place. As a result, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will prevail through the end of the month. 

It will turn somewhat cooler this weekend. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s. The unseasonably cool weather will continue into at least the middle of next week.

There is a possibility that the closing days of October into the opening days of November could experience a significant multi-day rain event.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +24.43 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.566 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8° (0.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.