October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Huh what? 

I hate summer, 95 degrees with an 80 degree dewpoint and zero wind. 

Really enjoyable let me tell you. 

You seem to be complaining about mid 80s with dews in the 50s. By most accounts it’s perfect weather. We have 5 months coming up to be cold 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

You seem to be complaining about mid 80s with dews in the 50s. By most accounts it’s perfect weather. We have 5 months coming up to be cold 

We most definitely do not have 5 months of cold coming. You know that's not happening. 

Winterwarlock complained about highs in the 60s. In the fall. Yea how awful I know right. 

[nycwinter]

for those complaining about lack of cold in the nyc move up north..

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

for those complaining about lack of cold in the nyc move up north..

For those who want 80s in October move south. 

[Sundog]

18z RGEM has a nice rain event with the front:

[uofmiami]

 

[Sundog]

So far the 18z runs of the NAM, RGEM AND ICON are all more rainy and more widespread with the rain than 12z. 

 

[psv88]

Yankees look good 

[donsutherland1]

Late summer warmth prevailed for another day. Highs reached the 80s in most parts of the region. Preliminary highs in the Northeast included:

Albany: 83°
Bangor: 80°
Bridgeport: 80°
Burlington: 86° (old record: 83°, 2023)
Caribou: 79° (old record: 77°, 1946 and 2005)
Hartford: 85°
Islip: 83° (tied record from 2002)
New Haven: 82°
New York City-Central Park: 84°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 86°
Newark: 87°
Philadelphia: 83°
Poughkeepsie: 86°
White Plains: 83° (tied record set in 2017)

Montreal, Quebec City, and Toronto were among Canadian cities setting new daily temperature records today. Six locations in Quebec reached 86° (30.0°C) or above.

Tomorrow and Tuesday will see a continuation of above normal temperatures. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. 

A strong cold front will likely cross the region around midweek. The frontal passage will likely bring some heavy showers or thundershowers. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.00" of rain. A shot of much cooler air will follow.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +4.64 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.033 today. 

 

[Picard]

19 minutes ago, Sundog said:

18z RGEM has a nice rain event with the front:

 

If it follows the overall trend of recent years, much of it will develop too far north, and move further north.  Anything in this area is typically very spotty.

[Sundog]

18z GFS has practically no rain for majority of the forum. Nothing is ever easy

[psv88]

85 today 

[psv88]

Lots of PWS in the 85-87 range around town. Real scorcher today. 

[Voyager]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Lots of PWS in the 85-87 range around town. Real scorcher today. 

For October, yes, a scorcher. Even here in the coal region hills of PA, I topped out at 86.

[FPizz]

50 to start, then hit 85.  Felt fine in the shade though watching football (baseball briefly before the yanks decided to throw bp) on the deck. Had an evening visitor as well.

[qg_omega]

Historic warmth 

[donsutherland1]

A quick note of caution about weekend storminess: The 12z ECMWF is currently an outlier. 

That a system will likely form out in the Atlantic is a reasonable idea. That it will bring a heavy rainfall to the New York City area is currently speculative. Most ensemble members have < 1" rainfall. There are also more dry ensemble members than 2" or above members, so a dry weekend is also a better possibility than the big rainfall amount shown on the 12z ECMWF.

In sum, until there is a stronger and consistent signal, the potential for some rainfall seems appropriate. The idea of a significant nor'easter, especially as shown on the ECMWF, requires a lot more evidence.

[Picard]

Put a quarter inch on the bingo board within the next 7 days in NNJ and you might luck out.  Bonus bucks if someone gets to a half.
Everything else is clown maps until there is stronger evidence of a significant pattern developing.

[SACRUS]

Highs
 

TEB: 91
EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 87
LGA: 86
BLM: 85
TTN: 84
NYC: 84
PHL: 83
ISP: 83
ACY: 81
JFK: 79

[Stormlover74]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

18z GFS has practically no rain for majority of the forum. Nothing is ever easy

Nam and euro also showing around .25" or so now

[Roger Smith]

If they confirm 84F as NYC high, it's t-5 with 1931 and 1951. 

1941 (94F), 1922 (89F), and 1891, 1967 (86F) were top four. 

It replaces 83F (2007, 2017) as warmest since 1967. 

[GaWx]

 The 0Z GFS has joined the hybrid/nor’easter party for a week from today:

 

Edit: GEFS largely agrees with the GFS big change

[LibertyBell]

On 10/4/2025 at 11:12 AM, forkyfork said:

why do this to yourself

this is so much better than cold weather

cold weather should only happen when it snows

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Highs
 

TEB: 91
EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 87
LGA: 86
BLM: 85
TTN: 84
NYC: 84
PHL: 83
ISP: 83
ACY: 81
JFK: 79

it's been in the 80s here both days of the weekend

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Sundog said:

For those who want 80s in October move south. 

don't need to lol

cold air is a drain on the wallet in October, it should only get cold when it's supposed to snow, otherwise it's 100 percent useless

it's not even humid, this weather is great

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, Sundog said:

We most definitely do not have 5 months of cold coming. You know that's not happening. 

Winterwarlock complained about highs in the 60s. In the fall. Yea how awful I know right. 

60s are way too cold

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

You seem to be complaining about mid 80s with dews in the 50s. By most accounts it’s perfect weather. We have 5 months coming up to be cold 

it is, I didn't turn on the a/c at all, this is ideal weather

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's how October has fared in New York City and Newark. The rate of warming has been very gradual, though there has been some acceleration since 1980. The chart's anomalies are based on the 20th century mean temperature for October. For Central Park, the 1991-2020 baseline temperature is 57.9° vs. the 20th century figure of 57.6°. 

Note: Octobers with large amounts of missing data were excluded.

 

Octobers have improved since the 1980s and even the 1990s.  I used to dread October back then because it was too cold to not run the heat. And as a teenager my parents had a thing about not turning on the heat in October so I would turn on the stove instead lol.

Pushing that transition back to November is great on the wallet.

 

[GaWx]

0Z CMC has the hybrid, too, for Sunday:

 

[LibertyBell]

On 10/4/2025 at 12:24 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Humans normalizing CC is exactly why we're all screwed. We're not far away from catastrophic events affecting our region whether it be extreme drought, hurricanes, California style fires, grid destroying heat in the summer and so forth. 

It's not that it's 80+ in October but rather how consistently warm it is. 

all of these things have happened before.....

look maybe people are *normalizing* it because they like warmer weather?

that's just how it is.

many of us like cold weather during the snow season, but not at other times of the year