October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Huh what? 

I hate summer, 95 degrees with an 80 degree dewpoint and zero wind. 

Really enjoyable let me tell you. 

You seem to be complaining about mid 80s with dews in the 50s. By most accounts it’s perfect weather. We have 5 months coming up to be cold 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

You seem to be complaining about mid 80s with dews in the 50s. By most accounts it’s perfect weather. We have 5 months coming up to be cold 

We most definitely do not have 5 months of cold coming. You know that's not happening. 

Winterwarlock complained about highs in the 60s. In the fall. Yea how awful I know right. 

[nycwinter]

for those complaining about lack of cold in the nyc move up north..

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

for those complaining about lack of cold in the nyc move up north..

For those who want 80s in October move south. 

[Sundog]

18z RGEM has a nice rain event with the front:

[uofmiami]

 

[Sundog]

So far the 18z runs of the NAM, RGEM AND ICON are all more rainy and more widespread with the rain than 12z. 

 

[psv88]

Yankees look good 

[donsutherland1]

Late summer warmth prevailed for another day. Highs reached the 80s in most parts of the region. Preliminary highs in the Northeast included:

Albany: 83°
Bangor: 80°
Bridgeport: 80°
Burlington: 86° (old record: 83°, 2023)
Caribou: 79° (old record: 77°, 1946 and 2005)
Hartford: 85°
Islip: 83° (tied record from 2002)
New Haven: 82°
New York City-Central Park: 84°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 86°
Newark: 87°
Philadelphia: 83°
Poughkeepsie: 86°
White Plains: 83° (tied record set in 2017)

Montreal, Quebec City, and Toronto were among Canadian cities setting new daily temperature records today. Six locations in Quebec reached 86° (30.0°C) or above.

Tomorrow and Tuesday will see a continuation of above normal temperatures. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. 

A strong cold front will likely cross the region around midweek. The frontal passage will likely bring some heavy showers or thundershowers. The potential exists for 0.50"-1.00" of rain. A shot of much cooler air will follow.

In the 18 past years where Central Park saw at least two 80° or above highs and Newark saw at least two 84° or above highs during the first week of October, the temperature returned to 70° or above on at least one day during the second half of October in 17 (94.4%) of those cases. For all other cases, 84.1% saw at least one such high temperature during the second half of October. Therefore, the sharp cool spell very likely won't mean that New York City has seen its last 70° or above high temperature. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +4.64 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.033 today. 

 

[Picard]

19 minutes ago, Sundog said:

18z RGEM has a nice rain event with the front:

 

If it follows the overall trend of recent years, much of it will develop too far north, and move further north.  Anything in this area is typically very spotty.

[Sundog]

18z GFS has practically no rain for majority of the forum. Nothing is ever easy

[psv88]

85 today 

[psv88]

Lots of PWS in the 85-87 range around town. Real scorcher today. 

[Voyager]

15 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Lots of PWS in the 85-87 range around town. Real scorcher today. 

For October, yes, a scorcher. Even here in the coal region hills of PA, I topped out at 86.

[FPizz]

50 to start, then hit 85.  Felt fine in the shade though watching football (baseball briefly before the yanks decided to throw bp) on the deck. Had an evening visitor as well.

[qg_omega]

Historic warmth 

[donsutherland1]

A quick note of caution about weekend storminess: The 12z ECMWF is currently an outlier. 

That a system will likely form out in the Atlantic is a reasonable idea. That it will bring a heavy rainfall to the New York City area is currently speculative. Most ensemble members have < 1" rainfall. There are also more dry ensemble members than 2" or above members, so a dry weekend is also a better possibility than the big rainfall amount shown on the 12z ECMWF.

In sum, until there is a stronger and consistent signal, the potential for some rainfall seems appropriate. The idea of a significant nor'easter, especially as shown on the ECMWF, requires a lot more evidence.

[Picard]

Put a quarter inch on the bingo board within the next 7 days in NNJ and you might luck out.  Bonus bucks if someone gets to a half.
Everything else is clown maps until there is stronger evidence of a significant pattern developing.

[SACRUS]

Highs
 

TEB: 91
EWR: 87
New Brnswck: 87
LGA: 86
BLM: 85
TTN: 84
NYC: 84
PHL: 83
ISP: 83
ACY: 81
JFK: 79