October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today got off to another chilly start. Many areas outside New York City again saw the temperature start out in the 40s with colder spots recording 30s. Low temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 48°
Danbury: 41°
Islip: 47°
Montgomery: 35°
New Haven: 45°
New York City-Central Park: 54°
New York City-JFK Airport: 51°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57°
Newark: 51°
Poughkeepsie: 39°
Sussex: 38°
Westhampton: 35°
White Plains: 47°

In parts of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, daily and monthly high temperature records were set. Green Bay (88°) and Rapid City (96°) tied their October monthly records. Philip, SD reached 98°, breaking its October monthly record of 97° for October 1, 1953. The New York City area will be on the fringes of this exceptionally warm air mass this weekend into early next week.

A warm weekend lies ahead. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. The warm weather will continue early next week. Another strong cold front will likely cross the region around midweek. The frontal passage will likely bring some showers or thundershowers. A shot of much cooler air will follow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +5.48 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.374 today. 

 

Don is that 35 at FOK the lowest so far this season?

Do you have numbers so far for the lowest temperatures at MJX, MVY and MPO? I'm wondering if anyone has gotten closer to freezing than 35.

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Here on Long Island if you grew up in the 1980s you did not see very many snowy winters, averaging about 20 inches a year. If you grew up in the 2010s you saw plenty of snow averaging over 30 inches a year. Hopefully your son will see some snowy winters soon.

in the 1980s January was extremely cold.  Interestingly enough with a few notable exceptions like 1983, February was much warmer than January.

 

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Thank you for the info. Though the two graphs have a different y axis max despite being about the same image size so it makes it look like the percentage difference between the two is minimal. 

I thought that until I realized the bottom pic went to 60 instead of 50 haha. 

The shading is based on the historic figures. Next time, I will manually force the same y-axis.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don is that 35 at FOK the lowest so far this season?

Do you have numbers so far for the lowest temperatures at MJX, MVY and MPO? I'm wondering if anyone has gotten closer to freezing than 35.

Yes.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today got off to another chilly start. Many areas outside New York City again saw the temperature start out in the 40s with colder spots recording 30s. Low temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 48°
Danbury: 41°
Islip: 47°
Montgomery: 35°
New Haven: 45°
New York City-Central Park: 54°
New York City-JFK Airport: 51°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57°
Newark: 51°
Poughkeepsie: 39°
Sussex: 38°
Westhampton: 35°
White Plains: 47°

In parts of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, daily and monthly high temperature records were set. Green Bay (88°) and Rapid City (96°) tied their October monthly records. Philip, SD reached 98°, breaking its October monthly record of 97° for October 1, 1953. The New York City area will be on the fringes of this exceptionally warm air mass this weekend into early next week.

A warm weekend lies ahead. Highs will generally reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. The warm weather will continue early next week. Another strong cold front will likely cross the region around midweek. The frontal passage will likely bring some showers or thundershowers. A shot of much cooler air will follow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +5.48 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.374 today. 

 

 Philip, SD reached 98°, breaking its October monthly record of 97° for October 1, 1953. The New York City area will be on the fringes of this exceptionally warm air mass this weekend into early next week.

 

wild how hot 1953 was everywhere, what happened in 1953 that allowed all that hot air from SD to get here but we're not getting a direct shot of it this late in the season this year?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The shading is based on the historic figures. Next time, I will manually force the same y-axis.

do you use some sort of spreadsheet program to generate the graphs Don?

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

He wasn't old enough to remember (and he still kind of isn't) but we did get above average snow in 20-21. 

Yeah, he wasn’t old enough to remember it, but I do. That was the only time we had a few days to play in the snow without it melting. But even that year was only something like 2-3 inches above normal. Even in our warmer, more snowless winters of the past, you could always count on at least a few sustained cold weeks with snow, except maybe on the island. 
 

I’m hoping this year might be decent but I won’t be shocked if it hardly snows either. 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

do you use some sort of spreadsheet program to generate the graphs Don?

Yes. Values are assigned based on their range. One can manually make adjustments.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

 Philip, SD reached 98°, breaking its October monthly record of 97° for October 1, 1953. The New York City area will be on the fringes of this exceptionally warm air mass this weekend into early next week.

 

wild how hot 1953 was everywhere, what happened in 1953 that allowed all that hot air from SD to get here but we're not getting a direct shot of it this late in the season this year?

 

Significant dry conditions (widespread negative Palmer Z-Index anomalies). The greens/blues are dry; the yellows/oranges are wet:

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Significant dry conditions (widespread negative Palmer Z-Index anomalies). The greens/blues are dry; the yellows/oranges are wet:

wow we've had a dry year this year but it was much drier back then.

[LibertyBell]

1953 and 1966 have a record that NYC may never match ever again, 4 days of 100+

 

I used to think 1966 was more impressive, but 1953 has so many records, two straight days of 100+ in two separate heatwaves, NYC's longest heatwave on record (late August into September to boot) and a second very long heatwave to boot back in July when they had their first 2 day stretch of 100+.

What 1966 did that only happened two other times (in 1948 and more recently in 1993) was have three straight days of 100+.  And those three straight days of 100+ happened at all of our major reporting sites-- including JFK!

[Sundog]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Just an offbeat question, how did the poor bird in your sig die? =\

Hahaha, I haven't had signatures turned on in like 10 years, I totally forgot I had it

[SACRUS]

Highs:

 

EWR: 75
TEB: 74
New Brnswck: 74
LGA: 72
PHL: 72
TTN: 72
BLM: 72
ISP: 71
NYC: 71
ACY: 70
JFK: 69

[FPizz]

53 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Highs:

 

EWR: 75
TEB: 74
New Brnswck: 74
LGA: 72
PHL: 72
TTN: 72
BLM: 72
ISP: 71
NYC: 71
ACY: 70
JFK: 69

Low 39, high 72 here. Perfect day. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I guess since it is not 90 we can't call it summer-like. Really worries me how we normalize the disappearance of our cold seasons. It is honestly why I cherish every single snow day. They are becoming so few and far between. 

90°+ would be the warmer days during the summer. But past summers would have many days remaining in the 80s even during July. 2009 was our last cooler summer before the summers dramatically warmed since 2010. Only 1 day made it to 90° at the warm spots like Newark.

Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - July 2009
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Sum	2577	2028	-	-	0	293	6.60	T	-
Average	83.1	65.4	74.3	-3.9	-	-	-	-	0.0
Normal	86.9	69.4	78.2	-	0	408	4.66	0.0
2009-07-01	81	66	73.5	-3.5	0	9	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-02	79	68	73.5	-3.7	0	9	0.23	T	0
2009-07-03	81	65	73.0	-4.4	0	8	0.08	0.0	0
2009-07-04	83	65	74.0	-3.5	0	9	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-05	81	63	72.0	-5.7	0	7	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-06	86	60	73.0	-4.8	0	8	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-07	82	64	73.0	-4.9	0	8	0.11	0.0	0
2009-07-08	80	59	69.5	-8.6	0	5	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-09	74	62	68.0	-10.2	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-10	77	58	67.5	-10.7	0	3	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-11	79	62	70.5	-7.8	0	6	0.24	0.0	0
2009-07-12	84	64	74.0	-4.4	0	9	0.03	0.0	0
2009-07-13	83	61	72.0	-6.4	0	7	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-14	83	60	71.5	-7.0	0	7	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-15	87	62	74.5	-4.0	0	10	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-16	91	71	81.0	2.5	0	16	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-17	88	69	78.5	0.0	0	14	0.07	0.0	0
2009-07-18	86	70	78.0	-0.5	0	13	T	0.0	0
2009-07-19	85	63	74.0	-4.5	0	9	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-20	83	67	75.0	-3.5	0	10	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-21	73	65	69.0	-9.5	0	4	0.78	0.0	0
2009-07-22	82	65	73.5	-5.0	0	9	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-23	79	65	72.0	-6.4	0	7	0.14	0.0	0
2009-07-24	83	65	74.0	-4.4	0	9	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-25	84	64	74.0	-4.3	0	9	0.07	0.0	0
2009-07-26	87	69	78.0	-0.3	0	13	1.03	T	0
2009-07-27	86	69	77.5	-0.7	0	13	0.18	0.0	0
2009-07-28	87	72	79.5	1.3	0	15	T	0.0	0
2009-07-29	85	73	79.0	0.9	0	14	2.97	T	0
2009-07-30	89	73	81.0	2.9	0	16	0.00	0.0	0
2009-07-31	89	69	79.0	1.0	0	14	0.67	0.0	0

 

[Byrdhousebv]

t 55.2   DP 43.6 in NE Monmouth Co. But snowing in Red Lodge Montana....

https://www.redlodgemountain.com/webcam/

 

[psv88]

49 this morning, up to 64

[winterwarlock]

75/38 yesterday

 

42 this morning...Will tack on 40 later

[lee59]

50 here this morning

[SACRUS]

64 / 54 and off to the races.  96 hours of late summer with low - mid 80s, perhaps a few 86/87 in the warmest spots.  Front by Tue night an Wed AM mat bring some rain in the 0.25 - 0.50 range.   Cooler / near normal Wed - Fri before warming by the end of the week and next weekend.   Overall near normal / slightly warmer till mid month.

 

10/4 - 10/7 :  Much warmer 
10/8 - 10/10 :  Cooler  near normal  (Front brings rain 10/7 AM - 10/8)
10/11 - 10/15 :  Near - above normal
10/ 16  -   Cooler

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (2013)
NYC: 88 (1941)
LGA: 86 (2013)
JFK: 84 (1967)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1945)
NYC: 37 (1888)
LGA: 38 (1945)
JFK 39 (1996)

Historical:

1679: New England from the 4th to the 5th: The Great Northeastern Rainstorm and Flood of October 1869 dumps 7.15 inches of rain in 24 hours on Middletown, Connecticut, most coming the morning of the 4th. Northeastern coastal Maine takes the full brunt of the hurricane as the storm surge produces tremendous tides. At the entrance to the Bay of Fundy, the islands of Deer, Grand Manan, and Campobello all sustain severe damage from wind and tide, as did the communities of Eastport and Calais, Maine . (Ref. WxDoctor)
 

1777 - The Battle of Germantown was fought in a morning fog that grew more dense with the smoke of battle, causing great confusion. Americans firing at each other contributed to the loss of the battle. (David Ludlum)

1867: Galveston, TX has a track record of severe hurricanes. Almost 30 years to the day after the famous Racer's Hurricane struck the island city; another major hurricane brought violent winds and inundation. All of the wharves in Galveston were reportedly destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1869 - A great storm struck New England. The storm reportedly was predicted twelve months in advance by a British officer named Saxby. Heavy rains and high floods plagued all of New England, with strong winds and high tides over New Hampshire and Maine. Canton CT was deluged with 12.35 inches of rain. (David Ludlum)

1877: Washington, DC set a new 24-hour rainfall record for the month of October when 3.98" fell on the 4th. (Ref. Rainfall record as of the year 1877)

 

1957: The world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik, was launched on October 4th, 1857 by the Soviet Union. Sputnik was about the size of a beach ball and weighed 183.9 pounds. It took about 98 minutes to orbit Earth on an elliptical path. 

1963: Hurricane Flora spent 11 days wreaking havoc along her path through the Caribbean. The storm brought 170 mph winds and an 11 foot storm surge to Haiti, killing 5,000 people, making it the island nation's most destructive hurricane. The slow moving storm brought 15 - 20 inches of rain in 72 hours to parts of Cuba. The floods and mudslides killed 1,300 people in that island nation. Castro refused the United States' offer of help. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1969 - Denver, CO, received 9.6 inches of snow. October of that year proved to be the coldest and snowiest of record for Denver, with a total snowfall for the month of 31.2 inches. (Weather Channel)


1974: Killing frost on 3rd and 4th in suburbs National Airport had a low of 34°F on the 4th. (Washington Weather Records - KDCA) (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)
 

1986 - Excessive flooding was reported along the Mississippi River and all over the Midwest, from Ohio to the Milk River in Montana. In some places it was the worst flooding of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - A storm brought record snows to the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at North Springfield VT. It was the earliest snow of record for some locations. The storm claimed 17 lives in central New York State, injured 332 persons, and in Vermont caused seventeen million dollars damage. The six inch snow at Albany NY was their earliest measurable snow in 117 years of records. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Southern California continued to "shake and bake". An earthquake was reported during the morning, the second in a matter of days, and during the afternoon temperatures soared well above 100 degrees. Highs of 100 degrees at San Francisco, and 108 degrees at Los Angeles and Santa Maria, were October records. San Luis Obispo was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 111 degrees. (The National Weather Summary).

1987: A storm brought record snows to the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at North Springfield, VT. It was the earliest snow of record for some locations. The storm claimed 17 lives in central New York State, injured 332 persons, and in Vermont caused seventeen million dollars damage. The six-inch snow at Albany, NY, was their earliest measurable snow in 117 years of records.

1988 - Temperatures dipped below freezing in the north central U.S. Five cities in North Dakota and Nebraska reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck ND with a reading of 17 degrees above zero. Low pressure brought snow and sleet to parts of Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the north central U.S., with freezing temperatures reported across much of the area from eastern North Dakota to Michigan and northwest Ohio. Thirteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Cloud MN, which was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 19 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1995: Opal became a hurricane on October 2. Opal continued to strengthen, and a period of rapid strengthening late of the 3rd and early on the 4th made it a Category 4 hurricane. Opal weaken on the 4th, and Opal was a Category 3 hurricane when it made landfall near Pensacola Beach, Florida late on the 4th. Opal continued quickly north-northeastward and became extratropical over the Ohio Valley on the 5th. Hurlbert Field, Florida reported sustained winds of 84 mph with a peak gust of 144 mph, and gusts to 70 mph occurred as far inland as northwest Georgia. However, the main impact from Opal was from storm surge. A combination of storm surge and breaking waves inundated portions of the western Florida Panhandle coast to a depth of 10 to 20 ft. The surge was responsible for the bulk of the $3 billion in damage attributed to Opal in the United States. Opal was responsible for 9 deaths in the United States, including 8 from falling trees and one from a tornado. Opal was responsible for 50 deaths in Mexico and Guatemala due to flooding caused by heavy rains.(Ref. Additional Information At This Link) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1998: Two rounds of thunderstorms at Kansas City, MO produced flash floods that killed 12 people. Most people died after driving their automobiles into rushing water. Over 100 water rescues were required during the event. 7 people died when their cars became stranded on a single bridge over Brush Creek. The National Weather Service received a commendation for their excellent warnings during the event. The first of numerous flash flood warnings had a lead time of over 30 minutes. Total damage exceeded $50 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Oklahoma: 27 tornadoes touch down across Oklahoma establishing the national record for tornadoes in any state on a single October day. (Ref. WxDoctor) On the backside of this storm, an early season blizzard struck much of Converse and Niobrara Counties in Wyoming. 8 to 12 inches of heavy, wet snow fell from late on the 4th into the 5th over many areas. This combined with 40 mph winds snapped about 200 power poles and left about 4,000 people without power in Lusk and Manville for up to 5 days.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2005: Hurricane Stan made landfall along the Mexican coastline southeast of Veracruz. Torrential rains of 10 to 15 inches caused extensive flooding and loss of life across Central America. Death tolls reached 23 in Mexico, Nicaragua and Honduras, and 62 in El Salvador, but the greatest loss of life came in Guatemala, where as many as 2,000 people were killed in rain-related flooding and landslides. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Calendar day lows across much of the Midwest were 20 to 30 degrees warmer than normal. October 4th record-high minimum temperatures: 74 degrees (Lincoln, NE); 73 (Omaha, NE); 72 (Moline, IL); 71 (Rochester, MN and Waterloo, IA) ; 70 (Green Bay, WI). (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

2006: Shoshone, Idaho: A rare October tornado touches down near Shoshone, Idaho community but causes no significant damage. NWS reports this is only the second recorded October tornado in the state. The previous occurred in October 1984 in Ada County.(Ref. WxDoctor)


2013: While western South Dakota was dealing with a crippling blizzard, the tri-state region of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa saw several tornadoes, including an EF-4. This violent tornado started 2 miles southwest of Climbing Hill, Iowa, flattening corn crops and snapping tree trunks. As the tornado moved northeast, it intensified and struck a farmstead approximately 5 miles west-northwest of Correctionville, Iowa. Sheds and other buildings were severely damaged or destroyed, with the residence being severely damaged. The tornado continued to increase in both size and magnitude as it continued on its trek northeast. The tornado reached its maximum intensity 2.5 miles south of Pierson, Iowa, when this mile-wide tornado struck two farmsteads. Numerous outbuildings and barns were destroyed, with farm equipment being tossed over 400 yards. It was here that the tornado was rated EF-4. The tornado stayed southeast of Pierson, Iowa, and to the west of Washta, Iowa. Before lifting, the tornado produced more tree damage and downed power poles and lines 2 miles west of Washta, Iowa.

[WestBabylonWeather]

What a beautiful late spring day 

[Sundog]

I bottomed out at 53 degrees but I'm up almost 20 degrees already in the low 70s. 

[psv88]

Top 10 weekend coming up 

[Sundog]

The 0z EURO is much cooler for us that previous runs. Of course I am referring to the days past this Tuesday. 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

The 0z EURO is much cooler for us that previous runs. Of course I am referring to the days past this Tuesday. 

Yeah looking at the long range into mid October, the models look fairly cool now. Of course we can't rule out the odd 80 degree day later in the fall, but today through Tuesday looks like our last truly summery period of the season. The drought will worsen as well with the dry pattern continuing. 

[forkyfork]

k

[Sundog]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

k

I said Euro, not EPS

[Sundog]

And I also said cooler than previous runs, which it absolutely is

[forkyfork]

why do this to yourself