Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Andy isn’t prone to hyperbole—and it’s not hyperbolic if it’s right. The environment for Melissa increasingly looks as high end as you can get in any part of the Atlantic at any time of year. Without the earlier NE turn across Hispaniola, which the ensembles are starting to abandon, this not only gets to an anomalously warm and deep pool of OHC, it likely sits under a substantial ULAC with an anomalous jet streak to the north that will further aid ventilation. Melissa is meandering into a powder keg with a blowtorch. 

Apparently you're not putting much value in NHC's recommendations this morning?   

...it's okay.  With all the MAGAt parasites succeeding in tunneling out American institutions, there's probably just a skeleton crew of stressed out coffee constipated red-eyed summary efforts coming from NHC lately ... But, suppose for a minute there's substantive value when they tell us that moderate westerly shear will impact the TC for the next few days.  That would be inconsistent with your bold comment above. 

Just sayn'

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh... we'll see.  Shear stress has to diminish, tho.   If it doesn't, I 100% disagree. 

[moneypitmike]

A couple short rounds of heavy rain.....radar suggests there might be another.  Nothing to write home about.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh... we'll see.  Shear stress has to diminish, tho.   If it doesn't, I 100% disagree. 

I think it’s more of a if this drifts more westerly and doesn’t gain latitude type deal. If that happens it could be a biggun.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it’s more of a if this drifts more westerly and doesn’t gain latitude type deal. If that happens it could be a biggun.

heh too much shear.   Doesn't matter where it is.  

NHC indicated a 'few days' of it.   maybe we wait -

[WxWatcher007]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Apparently you're not putting much value in NHC's recommendations this morning?   

...it's okay.  With all the MAGAt parasites succeeding in tunneling out American institutions, there's probably just a skeleton crew of stressed out coffee constipate red-eyed summary efforts coming from NCH latels ... But, suppose for a minute there's substantive value when they tell us that moderate westerly shear will impact the TC for the next few days.  That would be inconsistent with your bold comment above. 

Just sayn'

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it’s more of a if this drifts more westerly and doesn’t gain latitude type deal. If that happens it could be a biggun.

Yeah the shear is unquestionably there currently and will remain, I don’t doubt that, but in a few days as Melissa shifts west and the ULAC becomes the predominant feature, that’s when the window for explosive development is most likely. Still not a guarantee, but looking increasingly likely.

Ironically, it’s the 20-30kt of shear now that is keeping Melissa from becoming vertically aligned that will probably lead to a further west track. Melissa can’t muster a sprint into the weakness to its north. 

From the latest NHC forecast

The intensity forecast has its own share of challenges. At least in 
the short-term, vertical wind shear is expected to persist between 
20 to 30 kt, and will likely prevent Melissa from becoming fully 
aligned and taking advantage over the very warm 30-31C sea surface 
temperatures. After about 48 hours, the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS 
guidance shows the shear decreasing gradually, but the timing on 
when the system becomes more vertically coherent varies among both 
the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Most of the 
guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days 
3-5, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during 
this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional 
models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The 
day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and 
further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles. 
The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large 
part related to the track uncertainty.

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Sorry, didn’t mean to derail the thread…

[Typhoon Tip]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sorry, didn’t mean to derail the thread…

I don't think you did...  I mean, there's a non-zero chance that thing gets sucked into ...whatever the Euro's selling with that -NAO trough.  This becomes a general Met concern

Which, by the way folks ... -NAOs, particularly those over the western limb of the domain, which this 10 day period is exerting, is a correlation found with TCs ( in general ..) affecting the EC.   I'm not fully convinced that some sort of hybrid or fusion deal can't evolve.  Low probability, but it's not outside the envelope, either

It's numerically/telecon Sandy like in some ways... but not exactly modeled as an analog in the synoptic handling at this time. 

As far as the upper tier category stuff... my intuition's telling me pump the breaks on that with the hostility in the region, and the fact that a trough pulling it out of the CAG region may induce that motion prior to the TC availing of superior deep layer circulation mode.   The GFS has a fuller integrated TC and that's why it's initiating that escape so fast.  The Euro apparently keeps it less coupled to the mid and u/a, so it drifts west and then gets a chancy window to RI ...  I put that lower probability. 

But, I don't give a ratz ass about being wrong, either.  ha  Just the way I see.

 

[Lava Rock]

0.49". right on the money

[kdxken]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Sorry, didn’t mean to derail the thread…

Nothing else going on.

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I like the 934 member near PVC

Goodbye to you. Goodbye to everything that you knew.

[Torch Tiger]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

It could 

Nobody knows

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Goodbye to you. Goodbye to everything that you knew.

Lets get that 50 miles west.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Lets get that 50 miles west.

can you imagine Narragansett Bay ....  ho man

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Yeah the shear is unquestionably there currently and will remain, I don’t doubt that, but in a few days as Melissa shifts west and the ULAC becomes the predominant feature, that’s when the window for explosive development is most likely. Still not a guarantee, but looking increasingly likely.

Ironically, it’s the 20-30kt of shear now that is keeping Melissa from becoming vertically aligned that will probably lead to a further west track. Melissa can’t muster a sprint into the weakness to its north. 

From the latest NHC forecast

The intensity forecast has its own share of challenges. At least in 
the short-term, vertical wind shear is expected to persist between 
20 to 30 kt, and will likely prevent Melissa from becoming fully 
aligned and taking advantage over the very warm 30-31C sea surface 
temperatures. After about 48 hours, the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS 
guidance shows the shear decreasing gradually, but the timing on 
when the system becomes more vertically coherent varies among both 
the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Most of the 
guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days 
3-5, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during 
this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional 
models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The 
day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and 
further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles. 
The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large 
part related to the track uncertainty.

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

This is precariously close to a capture in this 12z GGEM solution ( D7 )....  an overall structural improving suggestion comparing the 00z run from last night.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

can you imagine Narragansett Bay ....  ho man

Look at the GOM into PWM. lol

[MJO812]

Coming

[CoastalWx]

Holy Canadian.

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

near 100kts 925 over my fanny. Lets do it.

[Typhoon Tip]

I beat  y'all to that 

ha

[MJO812]

I called sandy 2.0

[Typhoon Tip]

seriously tho...that GGEM solution is exactly what we were discussing early about the hybrid and/or fusion scenario being possible given that ..compendium of indicators.   

See?  all you have to do when in ennui is bitch and complain about it -  

[ineedsnow]

Holy shit!! There we go

[Damage In Tolland]

Something big is coming next weekend. I feel it . Things are moving 

[SouthCoastMA]

Pilgrm monument in PTown toppled over if that verified

[WxWatcher007]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Look at the GOM into PWM. lol

Maine sent back to the days of being the Massachusetts Bay Colony. 

[WxWatcher007]

I’ll never forgive T-Blizz for complaining his way to a jackpot in the 2022 blizzard while I was shoveling pixie dust. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12z GEFs continues the trend to increase anomaly settling into the M/A ...  Here's the 180 hour

regardless of whether there's a fusion of TC or TC guts into this scenario ...that's an important coastal signal on its own.