Typhoon Tip Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Andy isn’t prone to hyperbole—and it’s not hyperbolic if it’s right. The environment for Melissa increasingly looks as high end as you can get in any part of the Atlantic at any time of year. Without the earlier NE turn across Hispaniola, which the ensembles are starting to abandon, this not only gets to an anomalously warm and deep pool of OHC, it likely sits under a substantial ULAC with an anomalous jet streak to the north that will further aid ventilation. Melissa is meandering into a powder keg with a blowtorch. Apparently you're not putting much value in NHC's recommendations this morning? ...it's okay. With all the MAGAt parasites succeeding in tunneling out American institutions, there's probably just a skeleton crew of stressed out coffee constipated red-eyed summary efforts coming from NHC lately ... But, suppose for a minute there's substantive value when they tell us that moderate westerly shear will impact the TC for the next few days. That would be inconsistent with your bold comment above. Just sayn' 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Meh... we'll see. Shear stress has to diminish, tho. If it doesn't, I 100% disagree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago A couple short rounds of heavy rain.....radar suggests there might be another. Nothing to write home about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Meh... we'll see. Shear stress has to diminish, tho. If it doesn't, I 100% disagree. I think it’s more of a if this drifts more westerly and doesn’t gain latitude type deal. If that happens it could be a biggun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it’s more of a if this drifts more westerly and doesn’t gain latitude type deal. If that happens it could be a biggun. heh too much shear. Doesn't matter where it is. NHC indicated a 'few days' of it. maybe we wait - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Apparently you're not putting much value in NHC's recommendations this morning? ...it's okay. With all the MAGAt parasites succeeding in tunneling out American institutions, there's probably just a skeleton crew of stressed out coffee constipate red-eyed summary efforts coming from NCH latels ... But, suppose for a minute there's substantive value when they tell us that moderate westerly shear will impact the TC for the next few days. That would be inconsistent with your bold comment above. Just sayn' 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think it’s more of a if this drifts more westerly and doesn’t gain latitude type deal. If that happens it could be a biggun. Yeah the shear is unquestionably there currently and will remain, I don’t doubt that, but in a few days as Melissa shifts west and the ULAC becomes the predominant feature, that’s when the window for explosive development is most likely. Still not a guarantee, but looking increasingly likely. Ironically, it’s the 20-30kt of shear now that is keeping Melissa from becoming vertically aligned that will probably lead to a further west track. Melissa can’t muster a sprint into the weakness to its north. From the latest NHC forecast The intensity forecast has its own share of challenges. At least in the short-term, vertical wind shear is expected to persist between 20 to 30 kt, and will likely prevent Melissa from becoming fully aligned and taking advantage over the very warm 30-31C sea surface temperatures. After about 48 hours, the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the shear decreasing gradually, but the timing on when the system becomes more vertically coherent varies among both the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Most of the guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days 3-5, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles. The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large part related to the track uncertainty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Sorry, didn’t mean to derail the thread… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sorry, didn’t mean to derail the thread… I don't think you did... I mean, there's a non-zero chance that thing gets sucked into ...whatever the Euro's selling with that -NAO trough. This becomes a general Met concern Which, by the way folks ... -NAOs, particularly those over the western limb of the domain, which this 10 day period is exerting, is a correlation found with TCs ( in general ..) affecting the EC. I'm not fully convinced that some sort of hybrid or fusion deal can't evolve. Low probability, but it's not outside the envelope, either It's numerically/telecon Sandy like in some ways... but not exactly modeled as an analog in the synoptic handling at this time. As far as the upper tier category stuff... my intuition's telling me pump the breaks on that with the hostility in the region, and the fact that a trough pulling it out of the CAG region may induce that motion prior to the TC availing of superior deep layer circulation mode. The GFS has a fuller integrated TC and that's why it's initiating that escape so fast. The Euro apparently keeps it less coupled to the mid and u/a, so it drifts west and then gets a chancy window to RI ... I put that lower probability. But, I don't give a ratz ass about being wrong, either. ha Just the way I see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 0.49". right on the money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Sorry, didn’t mean to derail the thread… Nothing else going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I like the 934 member near PVC Goodbye to you. Goodbye to everything that you knew. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: It could Nobody knows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 19 minutes ago, dendrite said: Goodbye to you. Goodbye to everything that you knew. Lets get that 50 miles west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just now, CoastalWx said: Lets get that 50 miles west. can you imagine Narragansett Bay .... ho man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah the shear is unquestionably there currently and will remain, I don’t doubt that, but in a few days as Melissa shifts west and the ULAC becomes the predominant feature, that’s when the window for explosive development is most likely. Still not a guarantee, but looking increasingly likely. Ironically, it’s the 20-30kt of shear now that is keeping Melissa from becoming vertically aligned that will probably lead to a further west track. Melissa can’t muster a sprint into the weakness to its north. From the latest NHC forecast The intensity forecast has its own share of challenges. At least in the short-term, vertical wind shear is expected to persist between 20 to 30 kt, and will likely prevent Melissa from becoming fully aligned and taking advantage over the very warm 30-31C sea surface temperatures. After about 48 hours, the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the shear decreasing gradually, but the timing on when the system becomes more vertically coherent varies among both the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Most of the guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days 3-5, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles. The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large part related to the track uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago This is precariously close to a capture in this 12z GGEM solution ( D7 ).... an overall structural improving suggestion comparing the 00z run from last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: can you imagine Narragansett Bay .... ho man Look at the GOM into PWM. lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Holy Canadian. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago near 100kts 925 over my fanny. Lets do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I beat y'all to that ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I called sandy 2.0 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago seriously tho...that GGEM solution is exactly what we were discussing early about the hybrid and/or fusion scenario being possible given that ..compendium of indicators. See? all you have to do when in ennui is bitch and complain about it - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Holy shit!! There we go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Something big is coming next weekend. I feel it . Things are moving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Pilgrm monument in PTown toppled over if that verified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: Look at the GOM into PWM. lol Maine sent back to the days of being the Massachusetts Bay Colony. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I’ll never forgive T-Blizz for complaining his way to a jackpot in the 2022 blizzard while I was shoveling pixie dust. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z GEFs continues the trend to increase anomaly settling into the M/A ... Here's the 180 hour regardless of whether there's a fusion of TC or TC guts into this scenario ...that's an important coastal signal on its own. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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