Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 26.  We'll see how quickly the winds and clouds can clear tonight to go record chasing.  Looks like some of our chances over the next ten days have diminished quite a bit.  Still think we'll see flakes in the air at some point with all that cold hovering around.  National high of 89 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -21 at Skibo, MN.  Carry on.

[mahantango#1]

[pawatch]

What for weather stations are most of you running?  Ambient weather stations, Davis? Thinking after the first of the year upgrading my weather station.

30 degrees and snow flurries.

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, pawatch said:

What for weather stations are most of you running?  Ambient weather stations, Davis? Thinking after the first of the year upgrading my weather station.

30 degrees and snow flurries.

I've had both and much prefer my Ambient station. Simple setup and very accurate.

[mahantango#1]

Ambient ws5000

[Ruin]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Its really bad for the storm where models showed 4-5-6 inches and we get 1. I mean come one how inaccurate can it get. Grats to those who got more then that.

[Boreal]

2 hours ago, pawatch said:

What for weather stations are most of you running?  Ambient weather stations, Davis? Thinking after the first of the year upgrading my weather station.

30 degrees and snow flurries.

Tempest

[canderson]

Ambien for me. 
 

Snow squalls doing there thing in the normal squall parts of the region 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 26.  We'll see how quickly the winds and clouds can clear tonight to go record chasing.  Looks like some of our chances over the next ten days have diminished quite a bit.  Still think we'll see flakes in the air at some point with all that cold hovering around.  National high of 89 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -21 at Skibo, MN.  Carry on.

MU weighs in on the diminishing snow chances:

MJO activity in Phase 8 and a weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) will continue to support unseasonably cold conditions, on average, through the end of December. As for snow, the risk is "cold & dry". However, this pattern has a shelf life, & I expect a major January Thaw.

[Voyager]

Tesnpest, but may go back to something with a rain tipper and wind cups again soon.

[Jns2183]

MU weighs in on the diminishing snow chances:
MJO activity in Phase 8 and a weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) will continue to support unseasonably cold conditions, on average, through the end of December. As for snow, the risk is "cold & dry". However, this pattern has a shelf life, & I expect a major January Thaw.

The issue is dry. We have fought dry off and on for the past 5 years. We need a shift to long term wet like we saw at the beginning of the 2010. Until then I highly doubt we sniff a big storm

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The issue is dry. We have fought dry off and on for the past 5 years. We need a shift to long term wet like we saw at the beginning of the 2010. Until then I highly doubt we sniff a big storm

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Yes sir, the pattern has not been conducive for large storms. It could occur but the odds heavily go against that. 

The LSV is often caught in a "dead zone" in this type of pattern...flat southern waves that target VA and the Carolinas and stronger systems that cut and bring us mixing storms or plain rain. For those of us along the southern tier that essentially whiffed on Tuesday, we're going to need some help this winter. I feel like odds are in our favor that we score a couple of times along the way. 

[mahantango#1]

Took notice I got down to 18 last night, coldest so far this season. I wonder how low I'll drop tonight?

[WE GOT HIM]

30 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Took notice I got down to 18 last night, coldest so far this season. I wonder how low I'll drop tonight?

I got down to 22. 5 foretasted tonight

[GrandmasterB]

Cool cool cool

[WmsptWx]

Matt Campbell the next man to receive an extension. 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 26.  We'll see how quickly the winds and clouds can clear tonight to go record chasing.  Looks like some of our chances over the next ten days have diminished quite a bit.  Still think we'll see flakes in the air at some point with all that cold hovering around.  National high of 89 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -21 at Skibo, MN.  Carry on.

I'll predict a low of 21 for MDT. You will get down to 17.

[WE GOT HIM]

26 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Matt Campbell the next man to receive an extension. 

Hii

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll predict a low of 21 for MDT. You will get down to 17.

CTP has the forecast low at 14 tonight for MDT.

The remaining snow cover could help the temps to bottom out.

Current dew point is 13 at MDT.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP has the forecast low at 14 tonight for MDT.

The remaining snow cover could help the temps to bottom out.

Current dew point is 13 at MDT.

Yes indeed...I just feel like a combo of temps almost always failing to get as cold as predicted, an ongoing breeze plus cloud cover coming in later will cap it. I was going to say 19...we'll see!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

44 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Matt Campbell the next man to receive an extension. 

Honestly, if Campbell ended up being the consolation prize in all this mess I would be okay with that. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes indeed...I just feel like a combo of temps almost always failing to get as cold as predicted, an ongoing breeze plus cloud cover coming in later will cap it. I was going to say 19...we'll see!

Good point, the 7 pm MDT observation still had wind at 13 mph.

[Blizzard of 93]

Good post about the MJO from @GaWx in the ENSO thread today.

“Just like yesterday, the GEFS and EPS disagree on how long the MJO will stay in phase 8:

GEFS: only 6 days though it returns for rd 2 on 12/18:

But the EPS, which recently has been much steadier and has been verifying better than GEFS since phase 7, once again is going with a very long phase 8 (16+ days, longest in 50 years): you can’t place an MJO better than this in Dec for E US cold lovers (and it looks to be cold the next 10 days per models though one must remember that there are always other factors to consider due to the complexity of the atmosphere):”

[WmsptWx]

Sounds like Neeli Bendapudi has personally involved herself in the Campbell pursuit. 

 

This woman once fired an Athletic Director for not working with her while having her own resignation already drawn-up.

 

Ruthless.

[canderson]

Campbell is the whiniest coach I’ve ever seen. He always made a fool of himself when Iowa state played Texas - his shit is exhausting. 

[pawatch]

Brisk 9 degrees this morning. Might put an end to fishing on the river with ice.

Water temperature on the river was 37 last I was out.

[Voyager]

Boy do I wish we'd never gotten that snow on Tuesday. I don't know if it's that they are closer to the southern storm, or it's the lack of snowcover, but while Reading and Allentown are hovering around 20 this morning, I'm down to 7 up here.

I'd rather have the 20.

 

[anotherman]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

Campbell is the whiniest coach I’ve ever seen. He always made a fool of himself when Iowa state played Texas - his shit is exhausting. 

It sounds like they've already messed it up with him, so never mind.

[mahantango#1]

8.4 this morning, coldest so far this season.

[Superstorm]

Boy do I wish we'd never gotten that snow on Tuesday. I don't know if it's that they are closer to the southern storm, or it's the lack of snowcover, but while Reading and Allentown are hovering around 20 this morning, I'm down to 7 up here.
I'd rather have the 20.
 

Cloud cover

New York City was 19F