Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 26.  We'll see how quickly the winds and clouds can clear tonight to go record chasing.  Looks like some of our chances over the next ten days have diminished quite a bit.  Still think we'll see flakes in the air at some point with all that cold hovering around.  National high of 89 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -21 at Skibo, MN.  Carry on.

[mahantango#1]

[pawatch]

What for weather stations are most of you running?  Ambient weather stations, Davis? Thinking after the first of the year upgrading my weather station.

30 degrees and snow flurries.

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, pawatch said:

What for weather stations are most of you running?  Ambient weather stations, Davis? Thinking after the first of the year upgrading my weather station.

30 degrees and snow flurries.

I've had both and much prefer my Ambient station. Simple setup and very accurate.

[mahantango#1]

Ambient ws5000

[Ruin]

2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Its really bad for the storm where models showed 4-5-6 inches and we get 1. I mean come one how inaccurate can it get. Grats to those who got more then that.

[Boreal]

2 hours ago, pawatch said:

What for weather stations are most of you running?  Ambient weather stations, Davis? Thinking after the first of the year upgrading my weather station.

30 degrees and snow flurries.

Tempest

[canderson]

Ambien for me. 
 

Snow squalls doing there thing in the normal squall parts of the region 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 26.  We'll see how quickly the winds and clouds can clear tonight to go record chasing.  Looks like some of our chances over the next ten days have diminished quite a bit.  Still think we'll see flakes in the air at some point with all that cold hovering around.  National high of 89 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -21 at Skibo, MN.  Carry on.

MU weighs in on the diminishing snow chances:

MJO activity in Phase 8 and a weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) will continue to support unseasonably cold conditions, on average, through the end of December. As for snow, the risk is "cold & dry". However, this pattern has a shelf life, & I expect a major January Thaw.

[Voyager]

Tesnpest, but may go back to something with a rain tipper and wind cups again soon.

[Jns2183]

MU weighs in on the diminishing snow chances:
MJO activity in Phase 8 and a weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) will continue to support unseasonably cold conditions, on average, through the end of December. As for snow, the risk is "cold & dry". However, this pattern has a shelf life, & I expect a major January Thaw.

The issue is dry. We have fought dry off and on for the past 5 years. We need a shift to long term wet like we saw at the beginning of the 2010. Until then I highly doubt we sniff a big storm

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[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

The issue is dry. We have fought dry off and on for the past 5 years. We need a shift to long term wet like we saw at the beginning of the 2010. Until then I highly doubt we sniff a big storm

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Yes sir, the pattern has not been conducive for large storms. It could occur but the odds heavily go against that. 

The LSV is often caught in a "dead zone" in this type of pattern...flat southern waves that target VA and the Carolinas and stronger systems that cut and bring us mixing storms or plain rain. For those of us along the southern tier that essentially whiffed on Tuesday, we're going to need some help this winter. I feel like odds are in our favor that we score a couple of times along the way.