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Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
3 systems to watch on the GFS for next week:
  • Monday: coastal low brings heavy snow to VA (miss south of us for now)
  • Wednesday: clipper tracks north of PA and brings many of us rain 
  • Friday: wave runs just south of us and brings snow to almost all of the southern half of PA
Friday it may not get above 30

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Itstrainingtime
Itstrainingtime

I have an exceptionally busy week and might not be on as much as I'd like. Before I miss my opportunity...Happy Thanksgiving to all of you. 2025 has been a rough year in a lot of ways for myself perso

MAG5035
MAG5035

Overviewing all the model/ensemble stuff the last few runs I would think most if not all the subforum is looking good for the first widespread synoptic snowfall of the early winter season. I’m not rea

Jns2183
Jns2183

I do love October storms like this. Definitely going to sleep tonight with an open window so I can wake up the breezy heavy rain bands. The only thing better would to have winds Friday at the same tim

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

3 systems to watch on the GFS for next week:

  • Monday: coastal low brings heavy snow to VA (miss south of us for now)
  • Wednesday: clipper tracks north of PA and brings many of us rain 
  • Friday: wave runs just south of us and brings snow to almost all of the southern half of PA

I was going to bring this up as well.  Multiple things to track, including a nice little Euro/NAM combo for us southern tier folk this Friday.  Also on record watch for Friday, with MDT's record low for 12/5 being 12 degrees set in 1926.  Exciting times!

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Superstorm

Superstorm

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Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I was going to bring this up as well.  Multiple things to track, including a nice little Euro/NAM combo for us southern tier folk on Friday.  Also on record watch for Friday, with MDT's record low for 12/5 being 12 degrees set in 1926.  Exciting times!

Especially if they have any snow cover.  Does anyone know how much fell at airport?

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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2 minutes ago, Boreal said:

Just crept above 32°.  Ended with 3.0” here in Bangor PA (far northeastern Northampton County). (I prefer to post here vs. NY / Philly forums because it’s always been a generally better vibe)

Welcome - surprised you didn't get more than that. What was your forecast?

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I was the one who commented about the NAM and yeah Canderson would have measured 0.0 if this was right:

image.png.c7c03e3a138f4f02a7290880c5c86652.png

I couldn't remember who it was and I wasn't being insulting. I'm sorry if it was taken that way, and yeah...you make a valid point. My point is that in general I truly believe that the NAM has a much better handle on these types of systems compared to the "better" models. 

 

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Boreal

Boreal

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Welcome - surprised you didn't get more than that. What was your forecast?

Well - like many, it started out as 4-6, and was gradually reduced to 1-2 (per NWS).   Decent, quick event. 

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GrandmasterB

GrandmasterB

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I couldn't remember who it was and I wasn't being insulting. I'm sorry if it was taken that way, and yeah...you make a valid point. My point is that in general I truly believe that the NAM has a much better handle on these types of systems compared to the "better" models. 

All good! It’s really a blend of models in the forecast and the GFS was way too aggressive on snow for the southern parts of York/Lanco. It didn’t help that the Euro bled north run after run. I don’t think the Euro or GFS performed all that well for this event from just 72 hours out.  I just hope we get paid back with a north trend when we need it!

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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Just now, GrandmasterB said:

All good! It’s really a blend of models in the forecast and the GFS was way too aggressive on snow for the southern parts of York/Lanco. It didn’t help that the Euro bled north run after run. I don’t think the Euro or GFS performed all that well for this event from just 72 hours out.  I just hope we get paid back with a north trend when we need it!

Yes indeed!  

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
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Here in Carlisle, shortly after 1:00pm...the temperature is currently 32.9 degrees and has remained below that until the present. The final board measurement was 2.2".  However, there was some sleet and tiny bit of either rain or freeing rain.  Conservatively, there had to be some compaction at the end that I wasn't here to measure.  As a result I am going with a final snow total of 2.5".  It likely was a few tenths higher because melting down the snow produced a liquid equivalent of 0.32".  The forecast of 2-4" verified and the storm exceeded 2" which is my benchmark for being satisfied with the event.  It was just enough to cover the ground in spots.

Well, on to the next one.  I hope enough snow cover can remain to help enhance the anticipated low temperature Thursday night, perhaps to as low as 10 degrees from radiation.  We'll see.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
I couldn't remember who it was and I wasn't being insulting. I'm sorry if it was taken that way, and yeah...you make a valid point. My point is that in general I truly believe that the NAM has a much better handle on these types of systems compared to the "better" models. 
 
I think with this storm like many past ones 10-15 miles was the difference between contentment and despair. Due to the thermal gradiant and proximity to Atlantic it just happens that a large population lives in these areas. The geography and climatology dictate these will continue to be the battle areas during our lives and more and more people will be living on the edge.

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Voyager

Voyager

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After shoveling out 3 cars and 2 sidewalks, I'm beat already. At 58 years old, I'm not built for heavy work in cold temps. I really wish my wife would have wanted to move to Arizona. I'd have tried to keep my mom's house, and would have lived happily ever after.

Instead, I'm stuck here... :(

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canderson

canderson

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51 minutes ago, Voyager said:

After shoveling out 3 cars and 2 sidewalks, I'm beat already. At 58 years old, I'm not built for heavy work in cold temps. I really wish my wife would have wanted to move to Arizona. I'd have tried to keep my mom's house, and would have lived happily ever after.

Instead, I'm stuck here... :(

I highly recommend the Ego power shovel or snowblower. Used it today and it was a dream.  

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Sitake turned down PSU.

You’d think if you fire a coach mid season you have a replacement lined up … but I guess not. Weird stuff. 

Board of Trustees needs to fire Pat Kraft. Tonight. 

 

That would result in Terry Smith getting the job but Kraft cannot continue to be in this position. 

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
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Board of Trustees needs to fire Pat Kraft. Tonight. 
 
That would result in Terry Smith getting the job but Kraft cannot continue to be in this position. 
If Smith gets the job we lose a ton of NIL money. I know that for a fact based on some donors I know through work.

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Voyager

Voyager

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Posted
Just now, pawatch said:

2” for the snow total. Didn’t even have to blow my drive, it melted.

Snow on the vehicles, melt it too. 
I saw on some news, Pennsylvania was having a major snowstorm. :lol:
2” of snow a major snowstorm :) 

O how times have changed.

I don't know so much that the times have changed. Just how the news sensationalizes everything these days.

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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
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27 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

They need to roll the dice and hire hartline

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No chance Hartline agrees. This disaster has no coaches wanting to go to PSU and they're going to have to pay way too much at this point. 

 

You admit you screwed the pooch, fire Kraft, hire Smith to a 3-5 year deal and let the donors come back when they've cooled off. 

 

This needs to end. Tonight. 

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