Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Jns2183]

3 systems to watch on the GFS for next week:

• Monday: coastal low brings heavy snow to VA (miss south of us for now)
• Wednesday: clipper tracks north of PA and brings many of us rain 
• Friday: wave runs just south of us and brings snow to almost all of the southern half of PA

Friday it may not get above 30

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

3 systems to watch on the GFS for next week:

• Monday: coastal low brings heavy snow to VA (miss south of us for now)
• Wednesday: clipper tracks north of PA and brings many of us rain 
• Friday: wave runs just south of us and brings snow to almost all of the southern half of PA

I was going to bring this up as well.  Multiple things to track, including a nice little Euro/NAM combo for us southern tier folk this Friday.  Also on record watch for Friday, with MDT's record low for 12/5 being 12 degrees set in 1926.  Exciting times!

[Superstorm]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I was going to bring this up as well.  Multiple things to track, including a nice little Euro/NAM combo for us southern tier folk on Friday.  Also on record watch for Friday, with MDT's record low for 12/5 being 12 degrees set in 1926.  Exciting times!

Especially if they have any snow cover.  Does anyone know how much fell at airport?

[mahantango#1]

4" total snow was a few drops of rain at end.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Especially if they have any snow cover.  Does anyone know how much fell at airport?

I saw they had a 1.0" snow depth listed for their 7am report but beyond that not sure.

[Jns2183]

I saw they had a 1.0" snow depth listed for their 7am report but beyond that not sure.

Probably not much judging by their observations

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[canderson]

Measured 2.9”. 

[WmsptWx]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Measured 2.9”. 

Yes but what about the snow?

[Boreal]

Just crept above 32°.  Ended with 3.0” here in Bangor PA (far northeastern Northampton County). (I prefer to post here vs. NY / Philly forums because it’s always been a generally better vibe)

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Boreal said:

Just crept above 32°.  Ended with 3.0” here in Bangor PA (far northeastern Northampton County). (I prefer to post here vs. NY / Philly forums because it’s always been a generally better vibe)

Welcome - surprised you didn't get more than that. What was your forecast?

[GrandmasterB]

I was the one who commented about the NAM and yeah Canderson would have measured 0.0 if this was right:

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I was the one who commented about the NAM and yeah Canderson would have measured 0.0 if this was right:

I couldn't remember who it was and I wasn't being insulting. I'm sorry if it was taken that way, and yeah...you make a valid point. My point is that in general I truly believe that the NAM has a much better handle on these types of systems compared to the "better" models. 

 

[Boreal]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Welcome - surprised you didn't get more than that. What was your forecast?

Well - like many, it started out as 4-6, and was gradually reduced to 1-2 (per NWS).   Decent, quick event. 

[GrandmasterB]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I couldn't remember who it was and I wasn't being insulting. I'm sorry if it was taken that way, and yeah...you make a valid point. My point is that in general I truly believe that the NAM has a much better handle on these types of systems compared to the "better" models. 

All good! It’s really a blend of models in the forecast and the GFS was way too aggressive on snow for the southern parts of York/Lanco. It didn’t help that the Euro bled north run after run. I don’t think the Euro or GFS performed all that well for this event from just 72 hours out.  I just hope we get paid back with a north trend when we need it!

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Yes but what about the snow?

[2001kx]

4" here now but was prob closer to 4.5" - 5" earlier.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, GrandmasterB said:

All good! It’s really a blend of models in the forecast and the GFS was way too aggressive on snow for the southern parts of York/Lanco. It didn’t help that the Euro bled north run after run. I don’t think the Euro or GFS performed all that well for this event from just 72 hours out.  I just hope we get paid back with a north trend when we need it!

Yes indeed!  

[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle, shortly after 1:00pm...the temperature is currently 32.9 degrees and has remained below that until the present. The final board measurement was 2.2".  However, there was some sleet and tiny bit of either rain or freeing rain.  Conservatively, there had to be some compaction at the end that I wasn't here to measure.  As a result I am going with a final snow total of 2.5".  It likely was a few tenths higher because melting down the snow produced a liquid equivalent of 0.32".  The forecast of 2-4" verified and the storm exceeded 2" which is my benchmark for being satisfied with the event.  It was just enough to cover the ground in spots.

Well, on to the next one.  I hope enough snow cover can remain to help enhance the anticipated low temperature Thursday night, perhaps to as low as 10 degrees from radiation.  We'll see.