Central PA Fall Discussions and Obs

[Jns2183]

3 systems to watch on the GFS for next week:

• Monday: coastal low brings heavy snow to VA (miss south of us for now)
• Wednesday: clipper tracks north of PA and brings many of us rain 
• Friday: wave runs just south of us and brings snow to almost all of the southern half of PA

Friday it may not get above 30

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[Mount Joy Snowman]

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

3 systems to watch on the GFS for next week:

• Monday: coastal low brings heavy snow to VA (miss south of us for now)
• Wednesday: clipper tracks north of PA and brings many of us rain 
• Friday: wave runs just south of us and brings snow to almost all of the southern half of PA

I was going to bring this up as well.  Multiple things to track, including a nice little Euro/NAM combo for us southern tier folk this Friday.  Also on record watch for Friday, with MDT's record low for 12/5 being 12 degrees set in 1926.  Exciting times!

[Superstorm]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I was going to bring this up as well.  Multiple things to track, including a nice little Euro/NAM combo for us southern tier folk on Friday.  Also on record watch for Friday, with MDT's record low for 12/5 being 12 degrees set in 1926.  Exciting times!

Especially if they have any snow cover.  Does anyone know how much fell at airport?

[mahantango#1]

4" total snow was a few drops of rain at end.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Especially if they have any snow cover.  Does anyone know how much fell at airport?

I saw they had a 1.0" snow depth listed for their 7am report but beyond that not sure.

[Jns2183]

I saw they had a 1.0" snow depth listed for their 7am report but beyond that not sure.

Probably not much judging by their observations

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[canderson]

Measured 2.9”. 

[WmsptWx]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Measured 2.9”. 

Yes but what about the snow?

[Boreal]

Just crept above 32°.  Ended with 3.0” here in Bangor PA (far northeastern Northampton County). (I prefer to post here vs. NY / Philly forums because it’s always been a generally better vibe)

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Boreal said:

Just crept above 32°.  Ended with 3.0” here in Bangor PA (far northeastern Northampton County). (I prefer to post here vs. NY / Philly forums because it’s always been a generally better vibe)

Welcome - surprised you didn't get more than that. What was your forecast?

[GrandmasterB]

I was the one who commented about the NAM and yeah Canderson would have measured 0.0 if this was right:

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I was the one who commented about the NAM and yeah Canderson would have measured 0.0 if this was right:

I couldn't remember who it was and I wasn't being insulting. I'm sorry if it was taken that way, and yeah...you make a valid point. My point is that in general I truly believe that the NAM has a much better handle on these types of systems compared to the "better" models. 

 

[Boreal]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Welcome - surprised you didn't get more than that. What was your forecast?

Well - like many, it started out as 4-6, and was gradually reduced to 1-2 (per NWS).   Decent, quick event. 

[GrandmasterB]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I couldn't remember who it was and I wasn't being insulting. I'm sorry if it was taken that way, and yeah...you make a valid point. My point is that in general I truly believe that the NAM has a much better handle on these types of systems compared to the "better" models. 

All good! It’s really a blend of models in the forecast and the GFS was way too aggressive on snow for the southern parts of York/Lanco. It didn’t help that the Euro bled north run after run. I don’t think the Euro or GFS performed all that well for this event from just 72 hours out.  I just hope we get paid back with a north trend when we need it!

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Yes but what about the snow?

[2001kx]

4" here now but was prob closer to 4.5" - 5" earlier.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, GrandmasterB said:

All good! It’s really a blend of models in the forecast and the GFS was way too aggressive on snow for the southern parts of York/Lanco. It didn’t help that the Euro bled north run after run. I don’t think the Euro or GFS performed all that well for this event from just 72 hours out.  I just hope we get paid back with a north trend when we need it!

Yes indeed!