2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

[buckeyefan1]

+1

 

[Hvward]

Probably the best GFS run I have ever seen for WNC.  That was impressive and it starts precipitation late Friday night.  48 hour event.

[BretWx]

1 minute ago, Hvward said:

Probably the best GFS run I have ever seen for WNC.  That was impressive and it starts precipitation late Friday night.  48 hour event.

Still a ways to go but things aren't backing off yet. However, I would 10000% be prepared.

That run was ... mind blowing. 

[snowbird1230]

9 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Probably the best GFS run I have ever seen for WNC.  That was impressive and it starts precipitation late Friday night.  48 hour event.

I wanna believe but this is turning historic, 93ish..Life threatening for elders and shut ins..

[wncsnow]

The battle between that strong Arctic high and Baja low will be fascinating to watch

[Met1985]

An amazing run just 3 to 4 days out! I will say I'm very cautious of those totals but crap cut that in half and thats still one hell of a storm. So we have the Euro and the GFS. The next 48 hours will be telling of what this system could do. Honestly tracking this system had been a delight and fun. 

[Maggie Valley Steve]

It's sort of gotten lost in the Big Dog, but my point and click has rain/snow chance developing tomorrow evening and continuing into Friday morning. It does look like the high for the week will be tomorrow here at the house in the low to mid 40’s. I've been at or near freezing since last Saturday morning.

[Tyler Penland]

Holy cow. For posterity if nothing else. 18z GFS.

[BretWx]

18Z EURO is exactly why I filled three propane tanks and got gas for the generator. 

[Hvward]

18z Euro cuts snow totals to basically zero and has all sleet for all of WNC through Sunday then shows a change to rain.  Wow, we all know its possible though.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, Hvward said:

18z Euro cuts snow totals to basically zero and has all sleet for all of WNC through Sunday then shows a change to rain.  Wow, we all know its possible though.

That's not a good sign. 

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, Hvward said:

18z Euro cuts snow totals to basically zero and has all sleet for all of WNC through Sunday then shows a change to rain.  Wow, we all know its possible though.

What’s your read on the drastic change? High pressure change? Just small tweaks little to big changes downstream?

[franklin NCwx]

Im sure the next one we need to phase will miss and hit new Orleans again 

[BretWx]

Don't dive yet, y'all. Or at all. We are 3-4 days out. Have some good sleep and see what tomorrow brings. Hopefully not ICE! 

[cold air aloft]

I still think this turns out to mostly a snow event from I-85 north.

[snowbird1230]

I've saw alot of em trend NW but very few if any trend SW once it starts the N jog. Hopefully bad data ingestion but I've never been skilled enough to argue with the Euro...

[Buckethead]

18z Euro cuts snow totals to basically zero and has all sleet for all of WNC through Sunday then shows a change to rain.  Wow, we all know its possible though.

I'd be more concerned if this showed up after the recon missions tomorrow. Here's hoping it's just a one-off.

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[Maggie Valley Steve]

1 minute ago, Buckethead said:

I'd be more concerned if this showed up after the recon missions tomorrow. Here's hoping it's just a one-off.

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Recon is already sampling the upper low. They flew out of Honolulu. Hopefully we will see that data ingest begin by 6Z and definitely by 12Z tomorrow.

[Met1985]

Bottom line is that it's 1 run. If this continues through tomorrow then we know we have problems. 

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

23 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

I've saw alot of em trend NW but very few if any trend SW once it starts the N jog. Hopefully bad data ingestion but I've never been skilled enough to argue with the Euro...

While I agree, this seems like one of those Arctic air masses that can show more  suppression later on. We’ll know more soon but this is one of those setups where it could trend south. 

[strongwxnc]

12 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

While I agree, this seems like one of those Arctic air masses that can show more  suppression later on. We’ll know more soon but this is one of those setups where it could trend south. 

Need to see how the high pressure works down south out of the north land. It is strong which ='s better press. Or not. 

Either way, crazy system to track.