Hurricane Erin

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Erin is kind of boring now.  Hurricane Andrew landfall radar: https://imgur.com/G5IB3vI

I’ve never seen anything like what it  did to the Homestead Air Force  base and all property around it 

[Interstate]

29 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

They already have gotten some rain, just going by satellite photos.

Okay. So a couple of showers

[Coach McGuirk]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’ve never seen anything like what it  did to the Air Force  base and all property around it 

The video of Miami is fine then they go south and it's like OMG!

[dseagull]

5 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

People were saying this might hit as a major hurricane, the models were saying otherwise and the models won. 

"People were saying?"

 

Who?  At what point?   This was a well forecasted storm in terms of track and intensity.   While there were absolutely the same usual folks that would pull outlier tracks and intensity guidance from certain models, this was fairly well projected from most suites.  The western end of the envelope verification was still within margin of error. 

I don’t believe anyone has called for even a remote chance of lower 48 landfall in over 96 hours.   This is a win-win scenario for enthusiasts up and down the eastern seaboard.   We are afforded an opportunity to study a unique system, with hopefully minimal damage.   Trust me, damage is still being incurred as i type this.  

 

 

[Coach McGuirk]

3 minutes ago, dseagull said:

"People were saying?"

 

Who?  At what point?   This was a well forecasted storm in terms of track and intensity.   While there were absolutely the same usual folks that would pull outlier tracks and intensity guidance from certain models, this was fairly well projected from most suites.  The western end of the envelope verification was still within margin of error. 

I don’t believe anyone has called for even a remote chance of lower 48 landfall in over 96 hours.   This is a win-win scenario for enthusiasts up and down the eastern seaboard.   We are afforded an opportunity to study a unique system, with hopefully minimal damage.   Trust me, damage is still being incurred as i type this.  

 

 

Youtubers and Redditers. 

[dseagull]

Just now, Coach McGuirk said:

Youtubers and Redditers. 

Stop listening to idiots.  Read, discuss, interpret, document, and learn. 

[WEATHER53]

8 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

The video of Miami is fine then they go south and it's like OMG!

Yes and at first  when there were no reports TV said that was no news and good news. Very quickly they got that it was because no one could report 

[Coach McGuirk]

1 minute ago, dseagull said:

Stop listening to idiots.  Read, discuss, interpret, document, and learn. 

I don't, I'm just saying what the lay person is saying online. 

[Maxwell03]

27 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Not so underwhelming here on ocracoke

Sorry, not my intention to downplay. We set the bar pretty high for an offshore storm. I saw storm reports and clips from earlier but it seems like I'm not finding much in realtime right now. I guess morning will tell the tale. 

[Summey]

38 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Not so underwhelming here on ocracoke

Was just thinking about Dorian. Everyone forgot about it past the Bahamas but Ocracoke was decimated.   Hope it isn’t anything like that.  Godspeed. 

[Coach McGuirk]

18 minutes ago, Summey said:

Was just thinking about Dorian. Everyone forgot about it past the Bahamas but Ocracoke was decimated.   Hope it isn’t anything like that.  Godspeed. 

Dorian got up to 185 MPH, Trump made his cone through Florida and it went out to sea.  LOL.

[wthrmn654]

11 pm update is it's only moving north

[Coach McGuirk]

10 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Dorian got up to 185 MPH, Trump made his cone through Florida and it went out to sea.  LOL.

NWS had it hitting Florida as a major hurricane and it missed.

[Floydbuster]

 

[Coach McGuirk]

Floydbuster, long time no see. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Family at nags head reports no overwash and very breezy conditions. Seems like highway 12 south of Oregon inlet took a beating like usual. 

[MANDA]

8 hours ago, dseagull said:

Stop listening to idiots.  Read, discuss, interpret, document, and learn. 

Some people born obtuse and some stupid.  Unfortunately, some are born both.

[MANDA]

8 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Dorian got up to 185 MPH, Trump made his cone through Florida and it went out to sea.  LOL.

This post explains a lot.

[GaWx]

 The Outer Banks had sustained TS force winds overnight through 8AM despite the center being 200 miles to the SE/ESE/E!

1. From 2AM NHC advisory:
“A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at the U.S. Coast Guard Station Hatteras.”

2. From 5AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at 
Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h).”

3. From 8AM NHC advisory:
“A WeatherFlow station at Jennette's Pier in Nags Head, North Carolina, recently measured a sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).”

[Wannabehippie]

As we say goodbye to Erin, and go on to the next storm.

8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 21
Location: 34.8°N 71.8°W
Moving: NNE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[GaWx]

 For the record, the NHC/model consensus were significantly too far east as recently as 96 hours out. For example, this is from the 11PM Fri 8/15 NHC discussion:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.5N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.2N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 20.9N 64.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 21.7N 66.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 22.9N 67.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 24.0N 68.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 25.6N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 28.9N  70.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

Link: 

Hurricane ERIN

 
 Erin’s center ended up going 180 miles west of 70.5W as it went to 73.7W! So, later at its closest pass, the center ended up ~half the distance from the OBs vs what was forecasted early last weekend. Had this 70.5W furthest W forecast verified well, there wouldn’t have been TS conditions on the OBs.

[Interstate]

Looks like Erin is moving almost due East now.

[Wannabehippie]

32 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Looks like Erin is moving almost due East now.

I would say ENE. But we will find out for sure at the 2pm advisory.

 

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Looks like Erin is moving almost due East now.

 

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

I would say ENE. But we will find out for sure at the 2pm advisory.

 

Agree. Recon was showing an abrupt turn. Seems to happen often with these recurving systems.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Actually kinda crazy how low the pressure is despite the winds only being around 100mph

[Paleocene]

Total overwash in wildwood crest NJ in a pretty stiff breeze. Low tide now, seagulls be like "SCREEEE!" flying by. Will be a fun high tide later. The ocean is ROUGH. I've never seen the horizon look so choppy here (been coming for 35+ years)

[NorthHillsWx]

Erin now has an ACE of 30 with at least 24 hours left as a hurricane

[Chinook]

direct measurement of winds east of Hatteras

[WxWatcher007]

An immensely powerful hurricane 

 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

An immensely powerful hurricane 

 

Indeed, incorporating size, this is a MH.