August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Actually, even as August has been growing much wetter since 1970, it has been growing wetter at a slower pace than many other months over New York City's historical period. Spring and fall are growing wetter at the fast pace. Winter is growing wetter at the slowest pace.

I think it might have been something that began more recently, with our more active tropical seasons since after 1995, Don.  Do you have the numbers on August of the last 20 years or so?

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it might have been something that began more recently, with our more active tropical seasons since after 1995, Don.  Do you have the numbers on August of the last 20 years or so?

 

You're correct. I took a look since 1970 when the current wetter regime (cyclical + climate change-forced) developed. August has grown wetter than any other month since then. Here are the per century trends.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so the heat is gone after next weekend?

You would want to eventually see a wetter pattern develop in order to push back against the heat. If we continue to stay this dry, then there is nothing stopping us from having heatwaves right into September or maybe even October.

The tropics may turn out to be a wild card going forward. If we find a way to avoid any PREs and even some remnant tropical moisture, then we could be looking at another late summer and fall drought developing.

Long range rainfall forecasting is often low skill. But the one constant is that heat will quickly dry things out when there isn’t any rain. During the cooler summers in the past, we could get by with less rain. 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

You're correct. I took a look since 1970 when the current wetter regime (cyclical + climate change-forced) developed. August has grown wetter than any other month since then. Here are the per century trends.

wow thanks Don, and July is right behind August, which is a little bit of a surprise since July really isn't a month for tropical weather.  Maybe these extreme rainfall months are the main reason we don't see very long duration heatwaves and triple digit temperatures as often as we used to.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You would want to eventually see a wetter pattern develop in order to push back against the heat. If we continue to stay this dry, then there is nothing stopping us from having heatwaves right into September or maybe even October.

The tropics may turn out to be a wild card going forward. If we find a way to avoid any PREs and even some remnant tropical moisture, then we could be looking at another late summer and fall drought developing.

Long range rainfall forecasting is often low skill. But the one constant is that heat will quickly dry things out when there isn’t any rain. During the cooler summers in the past, we could get by with less rain. 

 

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a few 90s in September but it would be really hard to do in October, even last October when we didn't get any rainfall at all we didn't see any 90 degree temperatures.  Obviously it can happen though, October 2, 2019 it hit 95 here with a heat index of 100.

[doncat]

84/57 split today... This date in 2001 hit 103° here 

[cleetussnow]

Ya’ll need to check out this moonrise. Came up red AF. Coolest moonrise I ever saw. Hurry tho 

[cleetussnow]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Ya’ll need to check out this moonrise. Came up red AF. Coolest moonrise I ever saw. Hurry tho 

 

[Dan76]

27 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Ya’ll need to check out this moonrise. Came up red AF. Coolest moonrise I ever saw. Hurry tho 

Pretty sweet this morning also.

[Wannabehippie]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

2001:  In New York, the temperature reached a record 103 degrees for the date while in neighboring Newark, N.J., it topped 105 degrees, the National Weather Service said. The old record in both cities was 100, set in 1949.  Electricity demand was so high that lights flickered in New York when the metropolitan area suffered scattered outages.  New York Gov. George Pataki ordered parking and admission fees waived at parks statewide. In New York City, municipal pools stayed open until 8 p.m. Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani called on supervisors of city employees to use common sense in delegating responsibilities, saying that “strenuous work is not suggested at this time, unless it’s an absolute emergency.” In Boston, as temperatures approached a record 99, residents and tourists flocked to malls, museums, movie theaters or any place with air-conditioning.

2002: Washington, DC hits 98° and recorded their 8th consecutive day of 95 °F or higher, the longest such streak in recorded history at this time. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

Highs:

EWR: 105 (2001)
NYC: 103 (2001)
LGA: 104 (2001)
JFK: 98 (2001)

Incredible extreme heat around this date in both 2001 and 2002!!

 

1918: One of the worst hot spells on record occurred in Washington, DC with an average high 99.6°F from 5th to 9th, 106° on 6th. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

 

The heat in 1918 in this time period was not only extreme it was widespread!!

 

1976: Hurricane Belle formed just to the northwest of the Bahamas on the 6th, rapidly intensified to a Category 3 southeast of North Carolina. Hurricane Belle then began to weaken, moving into western Long Island near Jones Beach as a minimal hurricane during the evening on this date. Hurricane warnings were extended to the coastal sections of New Jersey, New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island where tides as high as 12 to 15 feet were expected. New York City measured a gust to 56 mph. Philadelphia, PA reported 0.51 inches of rain on the 8th, with an additional 1.17 inches on this date. The tide reached 8.8 feet above mean lower low water at Atlantic City, NJ, tying the level reached during the great coastal storm of 3/6/1962, and again reached during the "Perfect Storm" of 10/31/1991. Severe coastal flooding begins at 8.7 feet. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

 

The anniversary of Hurricane Belle!!

off topic but the anniversary of the death of Jerry Garcia is today.

 

[lee59]

Looks like another cool night, down to 65

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

PHL: 87
EWR: 86
New Brnswck: 85
TEB: 85 *  (89) faulty reading 
NYC: 85
LGA: 84
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
JFK: 82 * missing intra hour highs
ACY: 80
BLM: 79

[psv88]

85 today. Beautiful day for our block party

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a few 90s in September but it would be really hard to do in October, even last October when we didn't get any rainfall at all we didn't see any 90 degree temperatures.  Obviously it can happen though, October 2, 2019 it hit 95 here with a heat index of 100.

The 0z guidance keeps the hurricane activity well off shore the week of the 18th. So we continue with the heat that week also now. Some earlier runs had a system in the Gulf with remnants streaming north through the Ohio Valley to our West. Now we get another heat dome. No undercutting low to our Southeast keeping it cooler with the first system. 

Dry heatwave pattern through the next few weeks

 

[nycwinter]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0z guidance keeps the hurricane activity well off shore the week of the 18th. So we continue with the heat that week also now. Some earlier runs had a system in the Gulf with remnants streaming north through the Ohio Valley to our West. Now we get another heat dome. No undercutting low to our Southeast keeping it cooler with the first system. 

Dry heatwave pattern through the next few weeks

 

when has there ever been a heatwave in the northeast that lasted 2 weeks?

[nycwinter]

nws nyc thursday 88 friday 85 saturday 86 what heatwave?

[MANDA]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 0z guidance keeps the hurricane activity well off shore the week of the 18th. So we continue with the heat that week also now. Some earlier runs had a system in the Gulf with remnants streaming north through the Ohio Valley to our West. Now we get another heat dome. No undercutting low to our Southeast keeping it cooler with the first system. 

Dry heatwave pattern through the next few weeks

 

Ugly AF and equally boring.

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

when has there ever been a heatwave in the northeast that lasted 2 weeks?

All the models agree on the warm spots starting the heatwave today through Wednesday. Then we get a front coming through on Thursday.

But the GFS is the only model with much rainfall so it gets cooler for a few days before the 90s return by next Monday.

The Euro and CMC don’t have much rainfall so the Euro brings the heat back faster. The Euro doesn’t dip much below 90° later this  week at the NJ warm spots before the heat reloads again by next Sunday or Monday. 

The issue continues to be lack of rainfall. If we don’t see much rain later this week, then there is nothing stopping the heat from returning again in a week. 

If we can score some rainfall and cooler temperatures this Thursday and Friday, then we’ll get two separate heatwaves rather than a continuous one at the usual NJ warm spots. 

But as long as we continue to stay dry, the ridges keep reloading and we keep getting the heat. 

[SACRUS]

 

64 / 53  losing track of the barrage of nice days.  Another beaut on tap   Mid - upper 80s, to 90 in the hot areas to start the heatwave.  Hot week , chance at some rain / showers, storms on Wed PM but it looks scattered, could be enough to hod back 90s in some spots.  Strongest heat is muted inland due to persistent onshore flow but dry period will enhance highs to beat forecasts by a degree or 2 in the hottest / sunniest spots.  Overall warm - hot / humid and wetter towards the 17th, Tropical activity.  Euro has strong heat (95+) and 850 MB temps >19-20c Tue - Fri.  Similar progression to this week perhaps.  Tropicalscs could reverse recent dryspell.

 

8/10 - 8/16 : Warm - Hot / Humid - Hottest to mid 90s (a few 96, 97s)scattered storms Wed- PM
8/17 - Beyond  :   Warm - Hot / Humid - wet overall - tropical activity

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (1949)
NYC: 98 (1949)
LGA: 99 (1949)
JFK: 94 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1962)
NYC: 55 (1879)
LGA: 57 (1962)
JFK: 54 (1964)

Historical:

1778: A major hurricane struck along the east coast. The storm could have played a decisive role in a major naval battle between the French and British fleets, but British naval commanders failed to capitalize on their advantage after the larger French ships were damaged more heavily by the storm. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1831: A violent hurricane devastated the island of Barbados. The death toll was estimated to be as high as 2,500 people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1882 - Sandusky OH noted a four minute snow squall during the morning, frost was reported in the suburbs of Chicago, and a killing frost was reported at Cresco IA. (The Weather Channel)

1884 - An earthquake, centered near New York City and registering a magnitude 5.5, hit the region a little after 2 PM. The tremor made houses shake, chimneys fall, and residents wonder what the heck was going on, according to a New York Times article two days later.

1884: An earthquake, centered near New York City and registering 5.2 on the Richter scale, hit the region a little after 2 PM. The quake produced a small tsunami from the Hudson River to the Delaware River. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1898 - The temperature at Pendleton OR climbed all the way to 119 degrees at set a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1924 - Colorado's deadliest tornado killed a woman and nine children in one house along its twenty-mile path east southeast of Thurman. Mennonite men had left the farm to provide possible aid, as the 200-yard wide storm was first seen while far away.(The Weather Channel)

1936 - The temperature soared to 114 degrees at Plain Dealing, LA, and reached 120 degrees at Ozark AR, to establish record highs for those two states. (The Weather Channel)

1943: The lightning of August 10, 1943. In the worst lightning incident in Washington, DC regional history, six soldiers were killed on a Ft. Belvoir drill field. A large group of soldiers was playing baseball, and the game had just been called due to the approaching storm. As the troops began to disperse, a bolt of lightning struck in the middle of the group. Six soldiers were instantly killed and the sudden bolt of lightning injured nine other men.
(Unusual and Noteworthy Meteorological Events at Washington, D.C.) (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

 

1974: Clayton Lake, N. Mex.--A camper was struck and killed by lightning at 9 p.m. during a thunderstorm. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1980 - Hurricane Allen came ashore above Brownsville, TX, dropping fifteen inches of rain near San Antonio, and up to 20 inches in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Tidal flooding occurred along the South Texas coast. Hurricane Allen packed winds to 150 mph, and also spawned twenty-nine tornadoes. Total damage from the storm was estimated at 750 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

 

1981: In Moapa Valley, 80 miles north of Las Vegas, NV two storms 14 miles apart dropped 6.5 inches and 5 inches of rain, respectively, with most of it (85%) occurring in 15 minutes. Rains of such intensity happen once every 200 to 500 years. 762 cattle were killed at a dairy in Hidden Valley. Damage in Moapa Valley was estimated at $10 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1987 - Unseasonably hot weather continued in the southeastern U.S. Ten cities in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina reported record high temperatures for the date. Macon GA hit 101 degrees. A tropical depression deluged southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana with torrential rains. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Citizens of Bluefield, WV, where the Chamber of Commerce provides free lemonade on days when the temperature warms into the 90s, were able to celebrate their record high of 90 degrees. Eight other cities also reported record high temperatures for the date,including Bismarck ND with a reading of 102 degrees.(The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirty-eight cities in the south central and southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville NC with a reading of 48 degrees, and Victoria TX with a low of 63 degrees. Oklahoma City OK reported a record cool afternoon high of 71 degrees, and the daily high of 64 degrees at Raleigh NC established a record for August. In Arizona, a record sixty-four day streak of 100 degree days at Phoenix came to an end.(The National Weather Summary)

 

1992: Torrential rainfall caused flooding over parts of north-central Oklahoma. Rainfall of more than four inches in just a few hours produced widespread street flooding in Enid and collapsed the roof of a meat company in the city. Much of the Enid Correctional Center was severely damaged as all of the first floor housing units suffered water damage. Four inmates became trapped by the rising water and had to be rescued. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: Lightning struck a nursing home at Sandy, UT. A patient was struck when the current entered his room, temporarily blinding him, but freeing him of intense pain he had been suffering for 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1996: Nevada, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Texas, Baja California in Mexico, and Alberta in Canada lost power when the massive blackout occurred. High temperatures in the 90s and 100s sent the demand for power to high levels. Some of the specific highs included 88° at Seattle, WA, 98° at Portland, OR, a record breaking 100° at Burns, OR, 106° at Phoenix, AZ, and a record 110° at Sacramento, CA. Temperatures in the deserts of California and Arizona were in the 110-120° range. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)



2001: Lightning hit the Hog Island Association (Mummers Parade) building in Philadelphia, PA and set it on fire. More than 60% of the 100 costumes for the Mummers Parade were damaged or destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2016: August 9-16. Weak low pressure combined with abundant Gulf moisture produced phenomenal rainfall and flooding across central Louisiana, inundating entire neighborhoods and towns, especially around Lafayette and Baton Rouge. Rainfall totals exceeded 20 inches in as little as two days. Thirteen people died and economic costs ranged from $10 to $15 billion.

2020: Summary: A well-organized and long-lived complex of storms produced widespread severe ? wind damage across Iowa, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana during the day on Monday, ? August 10. Much of this severe wind was significant (75+ mph winds) resulting in many ? downed trees, several toppled-over semi trucks, and many communities receiving at least ? some minor structural damage. Within the broader area of severe winds, 15 tornadoes were ? confirmed across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. (Ref.Chicago Derecho that also hit Iowa with 110 MPH winds.)

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

when has there ever been a heatwave in the northeast that lasted 2 weeks?

 

Closest in 2016 , 2002 in certain areas.

[SACRUS]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

You're correct. I took a look since 1970 when the current wetter regime (cyclical + climate change-forced) developed. August has grown wetter than any other month since then. Here are the per century trends.

 

It would be interesting to see how much 2011 skews that if removed.

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

It would be interesting to see how much 2011 skews that if removed.

And that 17 inches of rain we got in October 2005