OBS-Discussion Flash Flood rainfall potential through 4AM Tuesday 7/15/25, especially I95 corridor

[wdrag]

Good Monday morning everyone. Please follow anticipated NWS warnings-statements later today.  Already as of 530AM 1/4-1/2" amounts fell earlier today in NNJ.

Watches are posted where potential exists for localized excessive rainfall by Tuesday morning, isolated 5-6" totals possible, mainly NJ portion of our NYC subforum.

An impaired Monday evening commute is anticipated with delays-accidents-possible detours. Plan accordingly. 

Recent humid but no rain scenario of past several days limits any mainstream flood potential but creeks-small streams, and especially urban areas along I95 are vulnerable to short fuse excessive rainfall, life threatening flooding if caught in overflowed roads.   

Turn around-don't drown should be in the back of all motorists minds. 

Added SPC HREF average rainfall and maximum potential rainfall graphic by Tuesday evening (most of this occurring 2PM-Midnight today). The WPC excessive rainfall forecast.  Also the 5AM WPC 7 day rainfall anticipated by the 21st and depiction of NWS watches lager today. 

 

[Brian5671]

On the eastern fringe of it all here...we sure could use some rain.   6z Models seem to like the Hudson west for heaviest.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

And…. We will be lucky to crack a tenth on the island.(south shore mainly)This looks almost entirely instability based and with no focusing mechanism the usual suspects are prime. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

And…. We will be lucky to crack a tenth on the island.(south shore mainly)This looks almost entirely instability based and with no focusing mechanism the usual suspects are prime. 

Yep. Looking forward to seeing NJ/Hudson Valley get nailed again and it hitting the Hudson River brick wall. Sprinklers are staying on. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yep. Looking forward to seeing NJ/Hudson Valley get nailed again and it hitting the Hudson River brick wall. Sprinklers are staying on. 

The timing is just off. This is one of those scenerios where New Jersey gets crushed today, decaying showers cross the western island overnight only ramp back up and slam the east end and southern New England tomorrow. It’s always amazed me how that timing always seems to play out.