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OBS - nowcast FF and SVR WX tonight-Noon Wednesday NYC subforum, mainly NJ-LI-CT


wdrag
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Something is bothering me about the constancy of PW over 2" into Wednesday morning, the likelihood 2 - possibly 3 bands of heavy showers and embedded strong thunderstorm passing through our area with plenty of ML Cape over 1200J and 30 kt+ deep layer shear, enough for severe storms, damage, power outages.

One band of convection now approaching I78-i80 at 515PM June 30 should weaken soon after sunset. 

A band of heavy convection should occur predawn Tuesday (Wfront?) with another band redevelopment late Wednesday morning or afternoon (CF). The EC suite differs a bit from HRRR/GFS suite.  

Now emerging is a 3rd band early Wednesday NJ/LI prior to clearing out the complex frontal boundary out of here.  

FF and SVR,  both mesoscale with some modeling offering isolated 5" amounts in NJ and very low probability, LI,  by the time this is done.

SPC has us in severe and WPC slight risk FF.  

If the overnight band is insignificant, then this will likely be a wasted short fuse thread. 

 

 

 

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Dissapointing die off near I80 overnight, after 2+ near Trenton and apparently 1-1.5 parts of southeast LI earlier today. 

This afternoon-night should be active with mesoscale SVR/FF reports.  Leftover rain Wed morning LI-NJ. 

I probably wont be back on til late today. 

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