OBS - nowcast FF and SVR WX tonight-Noon Wednesday NYC subforum, mainly NJ-LI-CT

[wdrag]

Something is bothering me about the constancy of PW over 2" into Wednesday morning, the likelihood 2 - possibly 3 bands of heavy showers and embedded strong thunderstorm passing through our area with plenty of ML Cape over 1200J and 30 kt+ deep layer shear, enough for severe storms, damage, power outages.

One band of convection now approaching I78-i80 at 515PM June 30 should weaken soon after sunset. 

A band of heavy convection should occur predawn Tuesday (Wfront?) with another band redevelopment late Wednesday morning or afternoon (CF). The EC suite differs a bit from HRRR/GFS suite.  

Now emerging is a 3rd band early Wednesday NJ/LI prior to clearing out the complex frontal boundary out of here.  

FF and SVR,  both mesoscale with some modeling offering isolated 5" amounts in NJ and very low probability, LI,  by the time this is done.

SPC has us in severe and WPC slight risk FF.  

If the overnight band is insignificant, then this will likely be a wasted short fuse thread. 

 

 

 

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[wdrag]

Dissapointing die off near I80 overnight, after 2+ near Trenton and apparently 1-1.5 parts of southeast LI earlier today. 

This afternoon-night should be active with mesoscale SVR/FF reports.  Leftover rain Wed morning LI-NJ. 

I probably wont be back on til late today. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Violent thunder woke me up around 1am. Is fire island ok? 

[TWCCraig]

34 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Violent thunder woke me up around 1am. Is fire island ok? 

We can't seem to get a good thunderstorm when we want one so having one at 1am when no one wants it and also wakes everyone up will have to do

[Brian5671]

missed most of the overnight action here, .06

[Stormlover74]

Sw of ttn will probably be the place to be

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sw of ttn will probably be the place to be

7-10 splint for most of the NYC area on the HRRR, 3K NAM as well.

[psv88]

Got a nice soaking around 4 am. The lawns will be happy 

[psv88]

It’s is incredibly muggy out there. Dew is 75

[steve392]

Bright blue skies up here in Mahwah, 81 degrees.

[FPizz]

85/77

[Rjay]

0.83" last night

[Stormlover74]

[Rjay]

Just now, Rjay said:

0.83" last night

Currently 84/76

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

come on okx

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Currently light rain with thunder at jones beach. We just cleared the beach. 

[steve392]

Eastern PA and Western NJ looking good.  Wish we could get in on the action.

[Cyg]

Made it back from cycling before getting walloped down here in Brick.

[Cyg]

Oh boy

[Tatamy]

Interesting sky here however virtually no lightning.  Tornado warned storm is just south of Allentown currently.

[Cyg]

Heavy rain and frequent lightning here in Brick. Not much wind and no hail.

[Stormlover74]

You can see the line in PA starting to pulse down. Might just turn into a moderate rain maker

[SnoSki14]

Big bust here

[steve392]

1 hour ago, Cyg said:

Oh boy

Luckyyyyy - in Napoleon Dynamite voice

[TWCCraig]

Barely light rain here yet we had a close strike of lightning with thunder

[psv88]

Light rain and thunder 

[winterwx21]

Tiny downpour. It poured for about 2 minutes. 

[wdrag]

So far via weather underground 4.36 Asbury park and 4.13 Herbertsville...sough edge of our forum.  That's today only.  does not include anything last evening. 

[steve392]

Quick downpour in mahwah.  Purple and pink skyes as I walked out. Nothing now. Radar looks incredible everywhere except where I'm driving too.

 

Sussex county for the win... Again.. 

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr was right with the 2 areas of severe being mostly north and south of the nyc metro