Summer Banter/LibertyBell

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's surprising that the director didn't have WIFI or some sort of internet connection....I can see that the camp didn't it's in a very remote area

Starlink mini would have be sufficient, especially in today's world.  Hell I have one as a backup in case something catastrophic happens and cell, etc doesn't work, assuming my WHG gives me power.

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Starlink mini would have be sufficient, especially in today's world.  Hell I have one as a backup in case something catastrophic happens and cell, etc doesn't work, assuming my WHG gives me power.

Given the remote area yes...need something in case of emergency...the lawsuit will begin to fly, despite the act of god nature of the disaster, a lawyer will be able to find some negligence on the part of the camp....

[jm1220]

20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's surprising that the director didn't have WIFI or some sort of internet connection....I can see that the camp didn't it's in a very remote area

There apparently wasn’t evacuation training as well, although this happened so fast there might not have been time, plus it was the middle of the night. But at the very least someone or people responsible should’ve had a weather radio if they were out of cell phone service. 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There apparently wasn’t evacuation training as well, although this happened so fast there might not have been time, plus it was the middle of the night. But at the very least someone or people responsible should’ve had a weather radio if they were out of cell phone service. 

The timing was pure bad luck-if the river rose like that during the day most would be up and about and would have time to move to higher ground...

[Sundog]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The timing was pure bad luck-if the river rose like that during the day most would be up and about and would have time to move to higher ground...

Sadly the speed with which this happened and the timing created a perfect storm for losses. 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

There apparently wasn’t evacuation training as well, although this happened so fast there might not have been time, plus it was the middle of the night. But at the very least someone or people responsible should’ve had a weather radio if they were out of cell phone service. 

they need sirens and the politicians who skimped on sirens because of cost should be ashamed of themselves

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

This will clearly be one of the worst flash flood events in our nation’s history. Death toll up to 119, many of whom are children and well over 100 still missing (hopefully these are mostly double counted or not reported found yet). Heartbreaking and devastating. Seems like the campgrounds were out of cell phone coverage so they didn’t get the automated warning from the NWS and didn’t have a weather radio. 

they need sirens, like tornado sirens

[SnowGoose69]

On 7/1/2025 at 8:26 PM, Rjay said:

They should scrap the gfs 

Sucks that it sounds like the NAM is getting scrapped next year in favor of the new RRFS.  I am not too thrilled on this as the 3km NAM just blows away anything, even the Euro on WAA winter events.  No word yet on if they'll go the NGM route and let the NAM keep running for 3-5 years, just with no new updates or if it'll just be totally scrapped ala the LFM when the ETA came about.  Overall, the ETA changed forecasting a ton.  Up until 1994 when it came about, winter forecasting inside 24-36 hours largely sucked, especially when it came to Miller Bs or clipper/sharp trof cyclogenesis generating systems.   The Euro was not used much yet because it ran once per day and came out 12 hours later.  After the March 93 storm many began using the Euro/UKMET more as they both did so well at long range with it.  

[Dark Star]

Is there a cloud line "stuck" just east of the Watchungs today?

[FPizz]

34 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Is there a cloud line "stuck" just east of the Watchungs today?

Seems like it so far.  Hopefully they move out.  I live near that red dot, and when looking at model projected snow maps, the majority of time have less snow in this area. I think it is due to having "mountains" around me, even if the tallest around is only like 610'

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Sucks that it sounds like the NAM is getting scrapped next year in favor of the new RRFS.  I am not too thrilled on this as the 3km NAM just blows away anything, even the Euro on WAA winter events.  No word yet on if they'll go the NGM route and let the NAM keep running for 3-5 years, just with no new updates or if it'll just be totally scrapped ala the LFM when the ETA came about.  Overall, the ETA changed forecasting a ton.  Up until 1994 when it came about, winter forecasting inside 24-36 hours largely sucked, especially when it came to Miller Bs or clipper/sharp trof cyclogenesis generating systems.   The Euro was not used much yet because it ran once per day and came out 12 hours later.  After the March 93 storm many began using the Euro/UKMET more as they both did so well at long range with it.  

why are they scraping the NAM?

 

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why are they scraping the NAM?

 

It's going to live on a farm upstate

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

why are they scraping the NAM?

 

because it's terrible outside of the winter WAA comment above

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why are they scraping the NAM?

 

The Eta is coming back

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

It's going to live on a farm upstate

Easy there, fella.

[donsutherland1]

Earlier, even as winter is still in the distance, there had been some discussion about NYC's snowfalls. Discussion concerned the potential for a structural decline in seasonal snowfall averages. Another way to look at the risk is to examine snow season duration (duration in days between the first and last measurable snowfall). From 1869-70 through 2024-25, the duration has been shrinking 2.3 days per decade. Since 1979-80, as temperatures began a more rapid warming, the duration has been shrinking at a rate of 6.7 days per decade. Since 1999-00, that rate of shrinkage has increased to 12.4 days per decade. This rapid shortening of the snow season means that bigger snowfalls are needed to maintain seasonal averages. Moreover, the shrinkage in the snow season may be sufficiently fast that it is outweighing any benefits from greater moisture that a warmer atmosphere might provide. This accelerating reduction in snow season duration may provide a further hint that the recent low snowfall seasons are the start of a structural decline in seasonal snowfall, not merely a bad cycle, as the slopes coincide with rapid winter warming. 

It should be noted that there will continue to be snowy winters and also lengthier snow seasons. 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Earlier, even as winter is still in the distance, there had been some discussion about NYC's snowfalls. Discussion concerned the potential for a structural decline in seasonal snowfall averages. Another way to look at the risk is to examine snow season duration (duration in days between the first and last measurable snowfall). From 1869-70 through 2024-25, the duration has been shrinking 2.3 days per decade. Since 1979-80, as temperatures began a more rapid warming, the duration has been shrinking at a rate of 6.7 days per decade. Since 1999-00, that rate of shrinkage has increased to 12.4 days per decade. This rapid shortening of the snow season means that bigger snowfalls are needed to maintain seasonal averages. Moreover, the shrinkage in the snow season may be sufficiently fast that it is outweighing any benefits from greater moisture that a warmer atmosphere might provide. This accelerating reduction in snow season duration may provide a further hint that the recent low snowfall seasons are the start of a structural decline in seasonal snowfall, not merely a bad cycle, as the slopes coincide with rapid winter warming. 

It should be noted that there will continue to be snowy winters and also lengthier snow seasons. 

The freeze free (growing) season has also been lengthening, it used to be under 200 days, now it's well over.