July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Solid look 

I dunno. Seems fantasy.

[weatherwiz]

For a second I thought this was smoke this morning then realized its fog. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro with a sultan signal on the 00z run for later Thursday into Friday. Decent EPS signal too.

Every time he calls Stein. It's uncanny how wrong he can be. A 7 spot

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Get driving wiz. I'm sure they have McDonald's in Sioux falls. 

 

Could be a solid concentrated swath of wind damage though with distance criteria like 400 or 450 miles it may fall short of the definition for a derecho.

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For a second I thought this was smoke this morning then realized its fog. 

It's always a promising sign when the day dawns in thick fog while the temperature's over 70     ooph  

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's always a promising sign when the day dawns in thick fog while the temperature's over 70     ooph  

Can't wait to we start getting sunshine and crank up the sweatiness. 

[weatherwiz]

MAV 97 for BOS tomorrow, MET 92, and NBM 95. A quick look yields that BOS certainly has a shot for 97 tomorrow...would not be shocked at a 98

[metagraphica]

KSNC 82/73 at 8:35am....off to the races.

[CoastalWx]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Every time he calls Stein. It's uncanny how wrong he can be. A 7 spot

I’m not sure I buy it that far north though.

[weatherwiz]

I'd have very low confidence in the end of the week. How all this convective potential evolves from the upper-Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is going to play a significant factor in how this evolves for us. 

[Torch Tiger]

Board burnout seems cocky and confident on 7"

[weatherwiz]

Is that some sort of very weak backdoor that rolls through tomorrow evening? Or maybe just a weakening front that probably lifts north a bit Wednesday as a warm front. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro AI with a cane into the Carolinas at 0z

Environment doesn’t look conducive. AI is probably latching too much on climo and a marginally more favorable environment. Emphasis on marginally.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro with a sultan signal on the 00z run for later Thursday into Friday. Decent EPS signal too.

I was just coming to post about it. Euro has been consistent with the setup. This we watch. 

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I dunno. Seems fantasy.

99.99% fantasy. AI is not yet competent imo in marginal environment tropical cyclone genesis. The regular ensembles barely have a signal if you can even call it that.

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure I buy it that far north though.

It will be NYC south . As usual 

[weatherwiz]

the SPC does mention derecho...nice

[Hailstoned]

58 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Could be a solid concentrated swath of wind damage though with distance criteria like 400 or 450 miles it may fall short of the definition for a derecho.

I’m in Des Moines- An extended elevated thunderstorm came through at 3:30 this morning with sporadic gale force wind gusts; looking at a pretty sizable branch down out the window. Tonight’s possible derecho may pass a little north? In the meantime another day of real heat; not unlike what’s on tap back home

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

I’m in Des Moines- An extended elevated thunderstorm came through at 3:30 this morning with sporadic gale force wind gusts; looking at a pretty sizable branch down out the window. Tonight’s possible derecho may pass a little north? In the meantime another day of real heat; not unlike what’s on tap back home

I would watch for tonight to perhaps end up a bit farther south than what guidance has...probably following along the southern edge of where the SPC has the enhanced so I would watch this closely. 

I know there is only the marginal right now for tomorrow but could be another big night. May not see another moderate but wouldn't be surprised if an enhanced risk was eventually thrown out there once the details become clearer. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Might be more of a big HIs than a big temps type of day today.   I'm only mentioning because the MEX had some 97s around the area recently - altho it backed off a little overnight.    

The rise rates don't really fit the typicality of a 98er though ...  

We'll see tomorrow.  Should be a higher launch after the battery gets charged pretty full.  Looks like a candidate 82F low at Logan and Urban elevated crime rates type of night.  heh.  So we'll get that sort of non-Markovian assist tomorrow morning. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Might be more of a big HIs than a big temps type of day today.   I'm only mentioning because the MEX had some 97s around the area recently - altho it backed off a little overnight.    

The rise rates don't really fit the typicality of a 98er though ...  

We'll see tomorrow.  Should be a higher launch after the battery gets charged pretty full.  Looks like a candidate 82F low at Logan and Urban elevated crime rates type of night.  heh.  So we'll get that sort of non-Markovian assist tomorrow morning. 

Do you think the "launch pad" aspect of temperatures overrated? I mean wouldn't the degree of mixing and the lapse rate hold the most weight? 

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would watch for tonight to perhaps end up a bit farther south than what guidance has...probably following along the southern edge of where the SPC has the enhanced so I would watch this closely. 

I know there is only the marginal right now for tomorrow but could be another big night. May not see another moderate but wouldn't be surprised if an enhanced risk was eventually thrown out there once the details become clearer. 

If you observe the present higher def vis loop (sat) over Missouri and Illinois you can see an impressive cool pool outflow frontal structure carving S under the heat dome/ridge.

I've noticed this sort of thing in these awkward west-biased continental warm ridging scenarios in the pase; which places E of 100 W on the NVA side of the larger synoptic scale flow structure.   Lotta a eye-glossing big words there... but, where I'm going is that because the former circumstance is in place, these outlfows are getting a deep layer assist in behaving that way.    I think this total behavior in part is sort of like machining it's own demise as these convection wrapping S-SE undermine and help then sent latent heat release to propagate the ridge E in time. Speculative, but this formulation of heat expansions is less transfixed from resonant feed-back. It's on borrowed time. 

Conceptually ... all that - to me- makes the notion of turning anything S of the ambient flow ( like and MCS ...etc.) as favored in general.  Seems an academically simple assertion really. 

Just an attempt at using real-time observations - a lost art in our field, I know... haha

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If you observe the present higher def vis loop (sat) over Missouri and Illinois you can see an impressive cool pool outflow frontal structure carving S under the heat dome/ridge.

I've noticed this sort of thing in these awkward west-bias continental ridging scenarios, which places E of 100 W on the NVA side of the larger synoptic scale flow structure.   Lotta a big eye-glossing words there... but, where I'm going is that because the former circumstance is in place, these outlfows are getting a deep layer assist in behaving that way.    I think this total behavior in part is sort of like machining it's own demise - or perhaps signals that when this formulation of heat expansions isn't resonant and is on borrowed time. 

Conceptually ... all that - to me- makes the notion of turning anything S of the ambient flow ( like and MCS ...etc.) would be favored in general. 

It's using real-time observations - a lost art in our field, I know... haha

that feature is very evident. Assessing real time observations is a lot of fun and something I'm trying to do much more frequently and want to do as we move through the winter. Sometimes its so easy to get caught up and looking at models and complaining about the lack of consistency between models or figuring out which model has the better handle and forgetting there is a great way to answer these questions...compare initialization and real-time observations over the next 6-12 hours to guidance and that will help answer these questions. 

A few weeks ago I remember watching water vapor for quite some time. The weather pattern featured a trough digging into the west with the jet stream poleward into the Inter-mountain West. So you had a dry punch entering the desert Southwest and as that air ascended over the Inter-mountains cloud and convection forming. And with the ridge across the south you had the jet axis becoming more zonal into the central states so as that air descended the Rockies the convection/clouds dissipated...it was great/cool watching science work in real time. 

[NW_of_GYX]

Can any met comment on Wednesday’s severe threat for NNE? We have an outdoor event that evening and trying to plan contingencies. Thanks

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Do you think the "launch pad" aspect of temperatures overrated? I mean wouldn't the degree of mixing and the lapse rate hold the most weight? 

No,... exactly the opposite.  

Non-Markovian quantum dynamics, is all but directly coherent in the atmosphere

In simple terms, system's dynamic state is stored in a kind of quantum memory.  This creates a tendency (favorable) for the system to return to that previous dynamic when stimulus is reapplied.  Even when the system appears to thermodynamically or mechanically be in a state of rest, having lost any presentation, it will pop back faster then if the stimulus were first time introduced. 

As an aside, this is makes intuitive sense really when you think of Newtonian dynamics, particularly the first law of inertia. An object will remain at rest, or move in a straight line at a constant speed, unless acted upon by an external force.  There's something eerily Non-Markovian about that. 

The higher launch pad is actually still representing a state of previous thermodynamics as lurking, anyway - kind of betraying the Non-MD aspect. But elevated WV content will make elevated temperatures at night whether the system has Non-MD lurking or not. Or, the increased WV will have an Non-MD component of it's own.  Now that's interesting - quantize the Non-MD contributions.  fascinating.  All of which then super-impose/ constructively interferes when stimulus ( like the sun) reintroduces an excuse to react.  

Think of it this way.   In the spring, late Mar thru mid May, we can get these higher heat ejection from the W, with low DP.  That's more Non-MD related.  The atmosphere has a quantum memory of warmth, ... almost like learning how to be hot, after the initial polar air mass had been beaten over the head with a hot spring sun for several days.  Haha... So you may still shed to cold lows at night, but the top side ( day) temp rises something 35 or even as much as 50 F.  Deserts do this too -

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Can any met comment on Wednesday’s severe threat for NNE? We have an outdoor event that evening and trying to plan contingencies. Thanks

Right now biggest question is how much instability will materialize. I would expect at least scattered thunderstorms to develop early-to-mid afternoon and progress southeast quickly through the late afternoon. Shear is enough to warrant the potential for thunderstorms to organize into a line. Shear is also enough to yield a low probability for a tornado along the warm front (which will be up around that area). I'd say 3-7 PM is the time frame for storms...that can probably even be narrowed down a bit more tomorrow too. 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No,... exactly the opposite.  

Non-Markovian quantum dynamics is all but directly coherent in the atmosphere

In simple terms, system's dynamic state is stored in a kind of quantum memory.  This creates a tendency (favorable) for the system to return to that previous dynamic when stimulus is applied.  Even when the system appears to thermodynamically in a state of rest, having lost any presentation. 

The higher launch pad is actually still representing a state of previous thermodynamics as lurking, anyway - kind of betraying the Non-MD aspect. But it will then super-impose/ constructively interfere when stimulus ( like a the sun) reintroduces an excuse to react.  

Thanks! Always had wondered that, this makes a lot of sense. 

[weatherwiz]

We may get nada in SNE Wednesday...storms for NNE and then southwest of us. After that weak front passes through tomorrow I'm not even sure we truly warm sector on Wednesday. You may have a weak warm front lifting north but the true or secondary warm front never even gets into the region. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I would watch for tonight to perhaps end up a bit farther south than what guidance has...probably following along the southern edge of where the SPC has the enhanced so I would watch this closely. 

I know there is only the marginal right now for tomorrow but could be another big night. May not see another moderate but wouldn't be surprised if an enhanced risk was eventually thrown out there once the details become clearer. 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

We be Stein-ing

1.66” MTD.  
Thursday looks meh for rain here. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

That NAM has a narrow corridor of 5000-6000 J of MLCape with DCAPE values ~1500+ J....that's absurd. There's going to be some significant wind damage 

[weatherwiz]

Thursday though could feature potential for a few tornadoes across southern CT/Long Island/RI/Cape Cod